Letters to Tarnow

Turkey Day Wrap Up

2010-11-26T00:40:00.000-08:00

Why isn't Marvin Lewis unemployed?

I like the dude, don't get me wrong. He's always struck me as a class act, as someone who knows his stuff. But during his tenure in Cinci, they've gone from potentially-super-good to mediocre to incarcerated to mediocre to injured to mediocre to potentially-super-good to terrible. The farthest he's ever gotten is the Wild Card round, and he's always exited it severely beaten.

So.

In a league where wins are the bottom line, and high expectations routinely kill coaches' careers, how is this guy still employed by the Bengals?

That's question 1, I have for you. And I imagine it will be moot no later than the end of February, 2011.

----

Question 2: who's better? Jets or Pats?

Who the fuck cares, is the answer.

Seriously. One step at a time. Only one can win the AFC championship, and if either does, it's unlikely that the other will have stood directly in its way. My advice: take them both seriously, but don't worry too terribly much. They're the class of the AFC, but they're not invincible.

----

Lesson in play calling:

Double coverage brackets are when you pull a safety out of Cover 2 and assign him to a WR who is already being trailed by a corner. This becomes a Cover 1, Double X, Y or Z. You don't call one of these coverages unless you see a QB drop into the shotgun with at least one, preferably two sidecars. If he's willing to limit his receiving options from 5 to 3, it's safe to only go with a cover 1 shell, and double trail a top threat receiver.

----

Next up: Practice squads. What you don't know, and what you need to know to keep from being cut!

Pre-game for Pats-Steelers

2010-11-13T23:09:00.000-08:00

First, let's raise a glass to Matt Ryan and not-so-dirty-birds in Atlanta, for beating our friends from Baltimore the other night. 60 excellent minutes of football; no one was cheated. Joe Flacco may not be as complete as we thought. The arm strength and accuracy are there; the borderline mobility is there; but that guy just isn't stepping up and dominating like he should be.

Anyway.

As far as us playing the Pats: it all comes down to defense. New England is known for trading away players at their highest level of production for draft picks, and let me tell you, those draft picks have been spent on defense.

Vince Wilfork, the pro-bowl NT is the only member of the unit to hail from the Super Bowl cheat teams of the early 2000s. He's still very good. Casey Hampton good. Short, fat dude who can just eat up space and make a tackle while he has someone riding him. The potential weakness of the Pats' line is to either side of Wilfork. Gerard Warren was a fuckup from the early years of the expansion era Browns; really a bad 4-3 DE, probably an equally mediocre 3-4 end. On the other side is Brandon Deaderick, who was a 7th round pick from this year. He's had early success this season, and I imagine he gets included in pass rushing packages, much like Brett Keisel does. Only thing that makes me wonder about him is his age and experience. Seems a little like beginners luck.

The linebacking corps. is excellent. The two middle backers are the best in the game, and they're fucking young. Jared Mayo and Brandon Spikes live to eat up running backs. I say the way to approach them is the same as what we used to have to do against Ray Lewis: run right at them. They're more than capable of dropping into coverage and picking passes if we let them. The only way they look bad is if they get tired. Best way to tire them is to make them work. Send Mendy right up the gut.

The NE corners and safeties are half excellent, half piece-meal. They mostly make their tackles, and when they don't, that's when the Pats lose. Kind of like our situation.

The joy for me, in watching a game like this, is comparing pass-defenses. Watch us stack 1-5s and 2-4s at the line, and watch the Pats bring off center 3-3s, or 3 man fronts made entire of linebackers for dime situations.

As far as offense goes, let's just take the ball away from them. Tom Brady doesn't miss his targets, and his targets are very good at slipping under the big hit. That means you either need to kill Brady right before he throws the ball, or you have to be there before the ball gets to the receiver. As much as I love to see Brady hurt and on the ground, I love it even more when we're returning his pansy ass 80 yard bombs for six points.

Watch out for their rookie TE, Aaron Hernandez. Dude can play.

My stomach has been emotionally wrecked by that game

2010-11-08T23:42:00.000-08:00

First of all: that should not have counted as beating the spread. That shit was a lot closer than the win over the Dolphins.

Let's go over the day's stories:

1. Wade Phillips fired. No shit. Marvin Lewis next?

2. Joe Morgan and Jon Miller set to split up?? Say it ain't so! What will we do when Sunday Night Baseball isn't enough and we need meta-baseball?

3. I went to Hoover Dam today; saw no less than four yinzers decked out in Steelers gear. Two #43s, one #86, and a fat woman wearing a Pittsburgh jacket.

Back to the game. Let's list things in order of awful to impressive.

-Most awful thing: the pass blocking of both teams. Just unbelievable how fucking terrible those dudes were. Dick LeBeau sends a nickleback blitz about two or three times a game, never with the intention of hitting the QB, but rather to loosen up a hole where a LB can penetrate, or perhaps just to occupy a halfback or tightend as a blocker. But no. Tonight was a night when William Motherfucking Gay penetrated no less than three times, and made solid contact with Carson Palmer. Shame on Cinci's center and those lazy bastard sidecars, assigned to keep Palmer clean.

-Injuries were pretty awful. I can't tell you how much I HATE losing Brett Keisel. Yes, the Bungles had trouble in pass blocking, but just imagine what it would have looked like had they had to deal with both Keisel and Harrison coming from the same side. It also made me die a little bit inside, seeing Maurkice Pouncey hobble to the sidelines. Fucking champion that he is, he inserted himself back into the game and calmed down the rabble that is our front five.

-The string of penalties that scored 7 points for Cinci sucked. Not that we didn't deserve some of those flags, but at least 2 of the 3 should have been canceled out by blatant holding calls. My host father, who isn't accustomed to our struggle, was floored by how flagrant the uncalled choke holds were on Woodley and Harrison.

-William Gay sucks. Yes, he blocked a punt, and that's always awesome, but man, does he not do a great job in one-on-one situations. That first TD, where Owens just bowled the dude over... you've got to be kidding me. Also: whose idea was it to leave the NB on their most physical receiver?

-The total lack of physicality out of Cinci's rookie receiver and TE was pitiful. The MNF crew pointed it out repeatedly, but Shipley and Gresham were just afraid to run over the middle. And of course, when they finally did, neither could hold onto the ball while being hit.

-Ziggy Hood was a non-factor. His name wasn't called all night, and for the first time in a long time, we saw Big Snack and Chris Hoke line up in the 2-4, and even in the 1-5, while Nick Eason played by the upright lineman. The point of the packages is that they allow our fatties to breathe, not anchor a pass rush. Where was Ziggy on those? And why was Woodley having such a difficult time staying clean on the edge? Weak stuff.

-IKE!

-Chad Ochocinco was pathetic, but this isn't out of character for him. Not against us, at least. If you've never understood what the big deal is with #85, it's for this reason: he's had not success against the Black & Gold, throughout his distinguished career. Against the Browns, he's scored 66 points; against the Ravens, 42 points. Against us? Try 18 points. He's a finesse receiver, good at coming back on the ball, and then weaving through open space with it. Against a team like ours, where we hit the receiver immediately after the catch, he's garbage.

-The Steelers' run blocking was a bit above-suck. Not great, by any stretch. In fact, they owe a lot to a certain back to named later. But that said, later in the game, they sealed up holes and created lanes.

-The Bengals' run blocking was just slightly better than the Steelers'. They were consistently opening lanes, and if they played 4-down offense all game, they'd have had more rushing scores and much longer drives.

-Our use of Mike Wallace is fun, but it has to improve. He's so fucking good, and Ben Roethlisberger should be fined every time he underthrows the guy. Randle El's pass was good for a non-QB, but even then, had it not been for Leon Hall losing the ball in the lights, that's pickable. If we're throwing downfield to #17, it has to take him to the back of the endzone. Other than that, Wallace is great.

-My host father made the point that Hines Ward is getting fat. Maybe he is bulking up, but his blocking looked all the better for it. Bubble screens? Good idea when we're trying to improvise a gameplan without Pouncey. Maybe a better idea when we still had Santonio.

-Matt Spaeth looked decent as a receiving option. Miller looked as great as ever.

-Skippy should have missed the 53 yarder and nailed the 46er. Evened out in the end; no big deal. His kick offs have had more umpff, and have allowed our suddenly-inspired special teams to take over.

-Sepulveda's average punt distance is still lacking. That said, his hang time is immaculate. Maybe he's just great and I shouldn't worry about him.

-James Farrior is not fast, but goddamn did he look like a fucking cheetah out there. Amazing penetration for a sack; great sideline to sideline coverage in the flats.

-GADGET PLAY!

-Timmons name wasn't mentioned a ton, except for the pick, but his presence was felt. He manned his zones perfectly, and allowed our pass rushers to pound away at Cinci's OTs.

-Cincinnati's corners, Hall and Joseph, are really quite special. That we were able to bang them up with our run game was testament to good play calling (hear that, BA?? It's possible for me to not hate you!).

-Ben Roethlisberger's performance without an O-line was sensational. He threw 26 good passes, and 1 bad one, which he never had a grip on. Excellent game; not reflected in the stats.

-Terrell Owens is such a talented asshole. I often talk about how Chad Ochocinco can't take over a game, can't dominate a game. What I'm referring to when I say a WR is taking over, is what TO did tonight. He got hit a ton, but refused to drop the ball. He played up to his size, and used it to compensate for speed when he had to. And how much did you love it when he cussed out his QB, or sulked on the sidelines? Class act, all around.

-Rashard Mendenhall was a hero. He did four things that make him the standout player of the game:

1. He protected the football.
2. He drove his shoulder into unsuspecting DBs and gained extra yards because of it.
3. He improvised brilliant routes, avoiding contact to gain extra yards when he realized he could.
4. He didn't fuck around when asked to drive straight into a pile, even when it wasn't working.

Mendy showed that he has an improved sense of technique, vision, and discipline. Life will get very, very good if we can trust him with the ball, even as all his blockers are pooping themselves.

Oh boy, was that fun. Glad to be back at the typewriter on nights like this.

FUCK THE BENGALS

2010-11-08T00:58:00.000-08:00

Going through some league business:

-As I said a couple weeks ago, Peyton Hillis: best trade of the season. Yahoo! has a featured article on it, and tomorrow they'll have video to boot. Don't be fooled, you heard it here first.

-3rd round pick for player-to-be-cut-later: worst trade of the season. Brad Childress is an asshat, or as my MOB friend says "he's that guy at temple that my dad avoids at all costs."

-My job is finally over so I can now follow notrugbyball. Huzzah!

As for Monday Night Football:

Second only to perennially over-hyped Dallas, the Bengals have been the biggest flop of 2010. Meanwhile, the steadily built Stillers have caught the non-believing world by surprise. Both of these things mean little, so far as Monday night is concerned.

The Bengals still have two explosive receiving weapons, and two fantastic corners. They also possess a rock solid QB and excellent front seven. If I told you they had a good O-line, wouldn't that be enough for you to excuse that I said nothing of their safeties or running backs? Truth is, they're solid in every unit.

The Steelers are solid, even above solid in every unit. We have the least question marks of any team out there. The only thing that concerns the black and gold is DE play. Aaron Smith won't be back, but his elite protege, Ziggy Hood will have a chance for a coming out party on national TV. Will Brett Keisel be ready? That's doubtful, and it's even more doubtful that Nick Eason has anything more to prove in front of the network viewers.

Mike Wallace looks like the standout sophomore of the AFC North. Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford are both challenging him across the NFL in general, but the 3rd round pick out of Ole Miss could have what it takes to join the ranks of Swann, Stallworth and Ward, and that's all that matters to us. While Santonio used to get beat up by Bengal LBs, expect Wallace to not only outrun their secondary, but come back for a few licks of his own. His play was significantly escalated by the physicality of the New Orleans game, and I expect him to take his cues from #86 to make these striped wieners pay.

Daniel Sepulveda put up extraordinary numbers in preseason, and extraordinary numbers before the bye. He was in the 48-50 yard range, per punt. Then he had a few games that brought him back down. Without doing any math, or reasoning that maybe the last several games all required him to shorten up so that he could pin our opponents within the 10 yard line every time, I'm just going to assume his leg is losing something. This wouldn't be unnatural: kicking a football half the distance of the field four to seven times a day is really fucking unnatural; losing that ability incrementally over the course of half a year is natural. In any case, let's look at hang time, distance, placement, and then his general form. I have a feeling it's half numbers and half physiology, and the game will tell.

I'm happy to say Lawrence Timmons is officially the backer we all said he was going to be. He's an absolute menace up the middle, can spell James Farrior, and can rush the passer with the best of them. If our makeshift D-line can hold its own, I expect him to be an X-factor to beat the Bengals.

How is it that our corners can play such great games after playing such weak ones? Ike and McFadden looked All-World in New Orleans; remember watching them in Atlanta or Tennessee?

I will be surprised if both James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are starting by the end of 2012.

Loved the dual back formations against the Saints. Honestly, didn't think it hurt at all. Would like to see that as the base, with singleback mixed in on second and third downs, every two to three series; sort of like we did in the 2005 playoffs... but whatever. Long live Dan Kreider.

Week seven flash!

2010-10-24T02:46:00.000-07:00

The Steelers endured about 9 months without their starting QB. The Dolphins have gone over 4,000 days without a franchise signal-caller. And while they show moments of brilliance with defense, run schemes and pass blocking, they just can't unify anything. This is due to the lack of a strong offensive leader.

Ed Reed is back. That's not great news for football outside of Stabimore. Ed Reed's essence could be what the dirty birds need to put it all together. Truthfully, they should be the team to beat. And while it seems like the offense has been the unit to stall out, just wait for them to relax into the game knowing that they have the best secondary in the AFC. It will happen.

As a sidenote: has anyone else noticed what a murderous fatty Ray Lewis has become? He's always been bulky, but holy cannoli! He's Levon Kirkland level chunky! Lewis has basically forsaken any moves he once had for sheer massiveness, and the ability to stop and kill anything that comes towards him.

The Colts are old men who can still win. Think Boston Celtics, circa 2008-2013. These guys really shouldn't be playing contact sports, but the thing is they're all still really good. This week Dallas Clark went out with a season ending injury. My guess is that this won't be a back breaker for Indy. Manning has never had a problem grooming a young receiver and making sure he works his ass off into the starting rotation. Clark was a good, if overvalued weapon in the Colt playbook. Undersized TE, with far better receiving than power skills; excellent at running routes that crossed the field, or split to the corner. Had the decided advantage of being the safety valve for the best passer in history, ever, while running under two or three of the best WRs in the game, at any time.

James Harrison is still a dirty thug, no matter what Josh Cribbs said. In case you missed it, Cribbs -- one of the TWO guys Harrison concussed in a matter of THREE minutes -- said this week that #92 didn't do anything wrong. For as much as he's haunted us, I really do like Josh Cribbs. As Jim Brown said "he's a spiritual force." He plays the game the right way. He never shies away from anything, and he makes violent plays, especially for a return specialist. That said... he's wrong. James Harrison did do something wrong. Hitting a man in the head with a hard object is wrong. There was an incident in minor league hockey where a head hit was so brutal, the police prosecuted it. This is fair and well and good. Just because something's a sport, doesn't mean we, human beings, are allowed to commit murder, or near murder or attempted murder.

It strikes me as funny... you'll hear a lot from our dads about how football is no longer manly. How the good old days in the 70s or 60s or even 50s were what football was really about. Now, if you've ever watched clips from any of the Steelers' 70s Super Bowls, you'd know how fantastically awesome and chilling some of those old-timey hits were. QBs were regularly slammed into the ground; WRs were hit in the legs before they were close to the ball; O-linemen had their heads slapped by 300 pound men as they tried to stay set. It was a brutal fucking display of no regulation, steroids, and baby boomer lust for gratuity.

Great.

Now let's make a rule that says you can't murder a person in the head.

If James Harrison wants to play Jack Lambert football instead of Roger Goodell football, that's going to be difficult.

DON'T BE A PUSSY COLT!

2010-10-17T01:38:00.000-07:00

I've tried writing this post to varying degrees of success in the past. Actually, not varying at all -- they've all ended in the same way: FRANCOfranco says Colt McCoy can't pass and then he, FRANCOfranco passes out and fails to post.

Here...

Here is the definitive drunk post on the subject.

In 2010 there were about 6 or 7 pro-quality QBs available in the draft. Foremost were the big four:
-Sam Bradford
-Tim Tebow
-Jimmy Clausen
-Colt McCoy

Bradford will be fine. He plays for a shit team, but give him a couple of concussions and some 4-12 seasons, and he'll start to want it. He'll want it enough to win, and he's got the talent to win.

Tebow is silly. He's a good player, a silly concept. Josh McDaniels is this 31 year old Super-Bro, who used to work for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and therefore got the idea that he was good at his job as QB coach. Someone else got the same idea and hired him as the head coach of the Broncos, where, in his second year, he drafted the most polarizing for least impact, rookie ever. Tebow is fine. He's this lefty, fatty QB who isn't really brilliant on his safety reads, but has a fine arm, and more importantly, GREAT legs. While his speed is only B+, his power running is fantastic, and he stops at nothing to gain the extra yard. He absolutely plays the game the right way. The right, inefficient way. That's Tebow. A lot of people thought he'd be the best QB ever; a lot of people thought he'd be the worst; Josh McDaniels thought he'd be a genius for trading up to draft Tebow in the first round. WRONG. You're a genius when you draft Tom Brady in the 6th round, douchnozzle. Anyway, I digress. Tebow will be decent. With a good team, he'll be frustratingly decent.

Jimmy Clausen is this buttplug who played at the prestigious Notre Dame program. Holy bolagna!! He was with the Irish! He must be great! Anyway, he's "eh" and he looks a lot more like a fetus than last "can't miss" Notre Dame signal caller, Brady Quinn.

Ah, and on the subject of the Mighty Quinn, let's talk about his successor at "back up QB whose name is chanted by the mighty fat drunks in the dawg pound." That would be Colt McCoy.

Mr. Colt is 6'1", 220ish. A real QB is around 6'5ish and in the mid 200s. Not that that should make a difference, it just gives you an idea of how out his weight class tis kid is.

Anyway.

Colt's claim to fame is that he owns the all time record for most wins at QB in NCAA history. Yep. The Longhorns fielded some REALLY great fucking teams that Tim Tebow's Gators didn't take that meaningless title.

Let's move on.

Last winter, I was at my parent's house, and my dad was fast asleep on the couch; a roaring fire in the hearth; the BCS championship game on the television. Colt McCoy vs. a good team.

Colt gets hit gently by a lineman; loses his ability to feel his right shoulder.

My dad jerks wide awake! "DON'T BE A PUSSY, COLT!" he yells.

Turns out McCoy had separated his shoulders or some shit like that. The narrative of the entire championship game went to whether he'd come back. At which point my dad said, "Boy, lissen to me. If you were hurt like that I woun'nt let 'em touch you. They can put all the needles in you they want. But you're not playing tonight. That arm is millions. You do not mess with that."

What makes me happy is knowing that million dollar arm is now my old-man's problem.

I guess here are some thoughts on football...

2010-10-05T01:21:00.000-07:00

I no longer know how writing about football works. This is due to a poor career choice and normal, but uncommon in recent history, league parity. Let's hit some points of interest.

The Browns made the most satisfying trade of the offseason. Brady Quinn is this pretty boy who is literally all face and no arm. He played QB in the prestigious Notre Dame program; won nothing, but got a lot of acclaim for being pretty. Then every team in football passed on him in the draft, until the Browns traded to get a second crack at the first round. They got him. The Cleveland fans spent two-and-a-half seasons chanting the name of this backup fuckup whenever their starter would struggle, then they saw him in action. He was good enough to lose a lot of games, get picked in the flats, and miss completions down field. Absolutely terrible.

Then Mike Holmgren came in, traded the Mighty Quinn to the Broncos for Peyton Hillis.

We'll give immediate props to Hillis for seconding Peyton as a legit first name; mild props to him for coincidentally carrying that first name into an industry that already houses the only other dude in the world named Peyton; and then mega props for being this big, fatty, white guy who can carry a ball forward for almost 5 yards at a time. Yeah. The Browns traded their first-round QB for a fullback, and that fullback turned out to be a quality powerback while Brady Quinn pretends to be in between Tim Tebow and professional football. That's satisfying. Will Hillis be able to run against the Steelers? Highly doubtful. Then again... he ran 144 yards against the Ravens, last week. That's kind of phenomenal for a 6'1", 240 dude who is only 24 years old.

As my old man likes to say whenever Hillis touches the ball: "Ha!... Brady ****ing Quinn!"

Most ridiculous thing: probably Kansas City being undefeated. They're fine. They're probably doing the right things as an organization to right the ship. But they're not 2-0. Not 3-0. Not 8-0, which is what Denver was this time of year in 2009.

San Diego is falling apart in lovely fashion. They were always good, save for one weak link; then they were fake good, due to two weak links; then they were frauds with many weak links; then they were wasting good teams' time in the playoffs for the last couple of years. Here's the specific history: Tomlinson was the best RB of the 2000's, then he got Phillip Rivers at QB, and like 3 basketball player TEs/WRs to compliment him; the Chargers went to a 3-4 when Norv Turner took over; then Norv didn't have the DEs to make it work; then Rivers didn't have the speed receivers; then Norv had the DEs but his NT was always hurt and his secondary sucked; then LT was apparently washed up, even though Rivers was a phenomenal QB with just a brilliant passer rating; then Vincent Jackson, the giant WR wanted out; then the Chargers gutted their run system, kind of traded Jackson, had no NT, no CBs, and pretty much expected Rivers and his TE Antonio Gates to fix everything. Rivers and Gates have been outstanding, thus far. Rivers and Gates do not play special teams or defense. House of cards.

The Ravens SHOULD BE scary. They have a perfectly good defense, complimented -- no! complimenting -- their potentially great offense. Joe Flacco needs to realize that he is the man. Not Ray Rice, not Willis McGahee, not LeRon McClain. Not even fucking Jamal Lewis. Joe Flacco is a good enough QB that Ozzie "best GM in football?" Newsome surrounded him with Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, Todd Heap and TJ Houshmandzadeh. That's as balanced a receiving corps as you'll find in football. Especially when you consider that Ray Rice plays the part of the fifth Beatle; receiving in the flats, and shakin'-n'bakin his way for serious yards after catch. First three weeks: Ravens have looked uncertain and scared. Last 30 minutes of week 4: Ravens looked like they might be finding something scary. Flacco can make the passes and Baltimore will work, so long as he follows through and calls up the plays.

I have a lot to say about the Steelers' defense but that will have to wait for later this week. G'night!

Eve of Battle Analysis

2010-09-26T00:45:00.000-07:00

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 2 games this year. Last year they won 3 games, total. Their current record is largely due to the incompetence of Eric Mangini, and the underperformance of the Carolina Panthers.

The Bucs feature a 22 year-old QB named Josh Freeman. Freeman managed to be drafted in the first round of 2009 without anybody noticing. He's 6'6, 250, and as mobile, if not more so than Roethlisberger. He is not very good at working enough miracles to win a football game, and thus will be at a disadvantage against our pass defense.

Raheem Morris is Tampa Bay's 16 year-old coach. Seriously though, the guy is dangerously young to be coaching a football team. Mike Tomlin and Bill Cowher were young hires; this guy was made interim head coach by an owner that forgot he was actually an assistant DB coach who was serving as interim defensive coordinator. I'm not saying he's awful. Only that he had the most meteoric rise through the ranks of assistant coaching, ever.

Tampa Bay drafted Gerald McCoy as the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft. He's a nasty, run-stopping DT in a traditional 4-3 system, with many analysts feeling like he is as good as Ndamunkong Suh. In any case, watch out for #93. He'll be giving Maurkice Pouncey his first legit challenge since being in the pros.

The Buccaneers have around 200 yards on the ground in two games, yet are averaging only a paltry 2.6 Y/A by their aging featured back, Cadillac Williams. Who knows, maybe tomorrow will be some huge coming-out party for an undrafted schmo who shreds the Pittsburgh run defense. But Vegas is betting against it.

I DIDNT WRITE THIS ENTRY BEING HELD AT GUNPOINT SEND HELP

2010-09-23T00:58:00.001-07:00

I'm a huge fan of Shutdown Corner, and for that matter, most Yahoo! blogs. But this seems weeks.

I mean, not only is it light on the football, but the real issue here is that man looks damn good. Don't get me wrong, I hate him and think he's a cyborg bitch. But let's not kid ourselves. He has a fantastically thick scalp, and good for him for flaunting it while he can.

Week 2 was the most fun thing

2010-09-19T23:10:00.000-07:00

To beat those Titans we needed things to go extremely right, and whatdoyouknow, everything went extremely right.

Jeff Fischer's standard gameplan is to keep the score close enough that he can still run the ball on any down. That's a lovely gameplan, one that was utilized by Bill Cowher, and to some extent is still used by Mike Shannahan. It doesn't work when the other team steals 7 points off the opening return.

It also doesn't work when you can't hold onto the ball.

Last season, opening night, Mike Tomlin said in his postgame interview that he gave his team three goals: protect the football, don't get too emotional, and be the more violent team in the trenches. He said the jury was out on the first two points, but felt like the Steelers had done enough on the third to earn a victory against the Titans. I'd say the same goals applied today, as the Steelers definitively won the battle of turnovers, played within themselves, and destroyed the opposition at the line.

In fact, I'd say we played our best game at the line of scrimmage since last year's contest against San Diego. The O-line had miscues, but held up in their assignments; meanwhile, the D-line went above and beyond in covering for the fact that we didn't have Big Snack (btw: anyone want to suggest a better backup NT than Chris Hoke? Sure, he doesn't have the build to start regularly, but damn is he good in a pinch). Lawrence Timmons made multiple stops at the line and hits behind it. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley looked fantastic in the flats. Troy Polamalu made, perhaps the two greatest tackles for a loss I will ever see in my lifetime. Smith and Keisel did their thing, which is to fuck fatties up, while other guys swarm. Farrior did his thing, got hurt, then did his thing again. On the whole: great day in the box.

Dixon: he looked good before leaving. He didn't do anything especially impressive, he just looked good. He looked relaxed, looked like a man with a free seven points to work with, which is what we want to see. He tossed the ball with reason, and he ran it fearlessly. That's what we want to see.

Anyone want to suggest a better fourth-string QB than Chaz Batch? I'm serious. My office mates were yelling things about how Charlie is a better QB than Dixon, and my dad was telling me over the phone that I'm extremely fortunate to have him as a backup (this, of course, is coming from a man who has to try to nap while Seneca Wallace mans the helm). Seriously though, having Batch is such an overlooked blessing. I don't have any delusions that he's great; he's just dependable when all else fails. That makes you feel good as a fan, that probably makes the players feel good. Charlie Batch: A-okay!

We should probably talk about how Kerry Collins almost led a comeback against us. I'm going to save that for when I have more time. Bottom line: that come back came with the benefit of the low-percentage onside kick working; furthermore, it was against a prevent defense that was allowing room in the under zone. Still, when you've got a +7 in takeaways, you should probably win by more than 7 points. But, again, this is a discussion for some time when I'm less sleepy and more critical.

Our rookie center had two bad snaps, but his blocking is superb. Expect this next week to see more action at the line, in terms of pull blocks. They're going to allow Kemoeatu and whoever the fuck is playing RG to move on running plays, because Pouncey has proven that he can seal up his area. The playbook should have some really nice traps where you'll see the TE and FB used as a wingback. More on this to come.

Week 1 happened, Week 2 is about twelve hours away!

2010-09-18T21:11:00.000-07:00

Recap of the opener:

Our run defense is a thing to bring children up on. Seriously, if they just showed film of our linebackers clotheslining RBs in the backfield instead of 'teaching', our schools would be fixed.

Ziggy Hood is roided up to the point that he looks like Bane. Awesome.

Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel have never looked meaner.

Big Snack injured? I didn't get the full story there. Hope to see him tomorrow.

Timmons' preseason was not a fluke: dude looks fantastic going against the other team's starters. Could he overtake Potsie for team leader in tackles? Very possible, if he stays healthy. Larry Foote is looking more and more like a guy we cut after week 2 and bring back in week 12 when we realize football kills all of our players.

Harrison and Woodley continue to be terrifying death machines. Nothing new here. A lot of uncalled holding, matched by unbridled violence. Yawn.

Farrior looked better, and it makes me wonder if he was really as bad as he looked last year. Maybe he really is just a system guy who gets a tremendous boost from having Troy Polamalu as one of his playmakers? That seems entirely likely, and it looks like that "step he was missing" will be replaced by the five extra steps #43 contributes.

On the offensive side of the football, there was Bruce Arians, calling up the most satisfying offensive game plan we've seen since 1979. Seriously, though: he had a fullback on the field, almost every running down, AND he had Dixon hand off to the FB! Amazing! Did this game plan blow the other team away? No, of course not. It was a fantastically inefficient indulgence in a run heavy strategy; still, that's the side we want to see them erring on, as opposed to getting sacked on 3rd and short.

Isaac Redman is fun. He lined up at FB and HB. That's fun. That's what Franco and Rocky and Frenchy used to do. That's what MEN were meant to do. Was he great? Eh... Whatever. We like to watch fatties in the backfield who can run with the ball and we got it.

Mendenhall was okay. He spun-moved his way to victory, and that was fantastic. Outside of that, he was okay. Nothing particularly memorable. In the future, maybe we could get a stiff arm or dropped shoulder for every two spins? Would like to see more fight, less flight.

Randle-El is exactly as we remembered him. He does this thing that can't be recreated in a video game, where he has a catch rating in the low 80s, but an emotional exhibition rating of 99+. To be honest, I'm not sure how much I like it. Yeah, I get that he's pissed that he dropped a ball, but what does it ultimately contribute to our chances of winning, having him cartwheel around in frustration over it? My memory of him is thus: bad hands, big heart in the 2005 regular season; some fantastic catches and a beautiful throw in the playoffs; and then a return to mediocrity and passionate outbursts with the Redskins. I guess I'm just curious as to whether he can channel his emotion into focus?

Hines Ward is my spiritual leader. After that catch he made where he hit the ground, and then rolled out from under the touch defender! Holy shit! He's so fucking heads up! THAT is the ultimate example of playing the game the right way. He saw an extra yard available to him, and in order to get it he had to backpedal 5, and get hit all over again.

Okay... Dixon. I really liked the idea behind the script they gave him. It was basically just "DON'T FUCK UP." That was a good idea for week one, playing a decent team that could be tamed by our defense. As the game wore on, though, it became more and more clear to everyone watching that the dude was all nerves and wasn't allowing himself to throw long. At some point in the second quarter, they showed clips from other games, where Eli "decent quarterback" Manning tossed a beautiful ball into the corner of the endzone from 20 yards out; followed by Peyton "best passer in history, ever" Manning throwing a bullet from 30 yards out into traffic and hitting Reggie Wayne in motion; capped off by Vince "kind of comparable to Dennis Dixon" Young bombing one across half the field to hit a receiver who had stunned the secondary. And this highlight reel, it made me think to myself "wow, we haven't seen any of that this season." I'd suggest that Dixon can do it. I don't think he has a noodle arm. I think the plan they gave him was to pick apart a relatively young LB core, and just protect the ball. On top of that, I think he was nervous as all get out. His pass to Heath that got picked: terrible. It looked like a Madden interception, where the player doesn't have a clear perception of 2D depth, and thus holds the button too long instead of arcing it. Do I expect more of that? Sure. He's not fantastic, and because of that he'll never be comfortable enough to learn how to execute certain reads. That's the Kordell Stewart level of competency. Can he still be successful? Sure. Not terribly successful, but good enough.

This week, I expect to see him throw a bomb against the Titans' secondary. Probably early.

The Titans should be the favorites here. We're going to Nashville, where they mauled us in 08. They have the best RB in football, along with a dynamic athlete at QB. Do they have a playmaking receiver? Not really, but we don't really have a shutdown corner. If you didn't notice, the Falcons' passing gameplan was all about hitting seam routes and come backs to try to test the tackling abilities of Bryant McFadden. He passed the test as far as containment went, but he sucked at coverage and allowed far too many balls to be caught. Same is true of Clark and Taylor. Expect the Titans to come out throwing at our CBs.

Last time we met was opening night of last season. Chris Johnson, the outstanding running back who owned the league, was pretty much tamed by our front seven. What we'll see tomorrow will be a fantastic battle of wills. If we can break him early, we'll be fine. If he finds a hole, or Vince Young is able to expose the soft spots in our under coverage, then you should expect him to penetrate our line in a huge way, before the end.

I like Chris Johnson. He's got a very quick cut, and excellent open field speed. I don't think he's anything special, in terms of redefining the position. Yes, he ran for 2,000 yards last year, and that's a rare achievement. One time Pat and I drank over 30 beers each in your living room. Could we do it again? Probably. But ask us to do it several days in a row. Chris Johnson is being asked to do a ridiculous thing every season, and his body will eventually die because of it.

Vince Young is a step above Slash, step below McNabb on the mobile QB list. McNair? Perhaps? Decent enough comparison, though probably a better runner, and weaker passer. Not nearly as fast as Vick, not nearly as foolhardy as Tebow, but much more confident as a playmaker than a guy like Dixon. If we had someone on offense who could take over the game, and force Young to beat our defense, he couldn't. However, because he knows that he doesn't have to do it all himself, he can play a much more conservative passing game, and wild running game against our D.

That's probably the number one reason why the Titans have the edge. They run very well, and the only thing that limits them from continuing to run isn't great run defense; it's being behind in the score.

Expect field goals. And more outstanding punting (Sepulveda for MVP!). And some shockingly great battles on the ground.

This will be good football that we will be approaching without a clear advantage.

Flozell Adams and Game 3 of preseason

2010-08-29T20:23:00.000-07:00

Dear Aaron,

I want to introduce to you a new friend. You're going to hate this guy. His name is Flozell Adams, otherwise known as "The Hotel." He was this longstanding fixture on the Cowboy's O-line for the past decade. Then he became this nasty, dirty-playing journeyman that no one wanted. And now he's filling in for Willie Colon at RT this year. Yep, that happened!

Hotel was kind of a rich man's Marvel Smith, only instead of chronic spine injuries, his big malady was being really old. To compensate for advanced age, he started tripping, kicking, and jabbing D-linemen. This led to flags. Lots of flags. And even rule changes! Literally, rule changes. He also lost his spot on the depth chart at LT, and got moved to RT, where his giant stature (6'7, 340ish), was less useful at sealing up the edge against the occasionally-blitzing strong safety.

Now he plays for us. Naturally.

At first you may give him the benefit of the doubt. You may say to yourself, "No, that wasn't a false start! Hotel is just faster than the ball as it's being snapped!" Then you'll realize: Flozell Adams isn't faster than anything. Flozell Adams is arguably the slowest, fattest human being in history, ever.

Things the Hotel will do for you:
-jump early on consecutive hikes
-not block a SLB or any kind of DB
-try to put a hold on a DE, but miss
-lay a solid trip on a DT who strays too far towards the sideline

Oh my god, he will make the past three years of O-line complaining look like a drop of water in the suggest box ocean.

As for tonight's game itself, big Nils is supposed to have the scoop over at the mother blog, so bust his nuts for that. My own observations are as follows:

-Lawrence Timmons looks genuinely fantastic. He looks like a shortstop who makes 5 outs in two innings, or a forward who steals the puck and takes shots multiple times on one shift, or a Troy Polamalu who plays football. Seriously, he's realizing that being a MLB in Dick LeBeau's scheme means being involved on every play, driving the ball back on every play, and above all else, stopping the run. Part of his preseason success is due to a healthy D-line. Having Keisel, Hampton, & Smith (and Hood) doing their thing cuts off lanes for RBs to take. While this lets the LBs have a clear path to their target, the LBs still have to finish the play. And the good news is that Timmons is finishing the freaking plays. He's absolutely jumping the ball carrier, both in the flats and at the line of scrimmage, not letting the guy take his first few steps into his stride. It's fantastic to watch, and I think if you study it, you'll notice that he's gained a bit of weight this offseason. That's obviously a sign that he wants to be here, that he wants to inherit this system from Farrior, and if his play thus far is any indicator, he looks worthy to stay.

-James Harrison is a violent psychopath. This is nothing new, but it was further established tonight. He should be, and probably will be fined for the hit he put on Denver QB, Kyle Orton. Here's the thing about the play, in case you weren't watching: the hit wasn't a pass rush, it was a(n overruled) fumble return, where Orton dropped to the ground to trip Harrison out of bounds, and instead of jumping over him, #92 dropped his body so his shoulder would sink into Orton's back, and his helmet would bang the back of the QB's neck. It's the kind of play you absolutely make when you're in the open field, and you're trying to push for that extra, violent yard over the marker or the goalline. It's not the way you carry your body out of bounds. I mean, he was leaving the field of play as he dropped his shoulder into the guy. That is NOT cool! My dad and I were talking on the phone as we watched it, and we agree: Harrison is going to end up on the wrong side of the law one of these days. All he knows and he's good at is violence. He'll make LT, OJ and Ray Lewis look like boy scouts.

-Our second year corners have improved enough that when they manage to jump a route, they're able to hold onto the ball. Good job Keenan Lewis and Joe Burnett. Keep on, keepin' on!

-Jonathan Dwyer has been making us yawn in pain for a good portion of this preseason. Looked like he'd do it again tonight. Then, out of nowhere, in a goalline situation, Chaz Batch handed him the ball, and he swept it around the two TE edge, and into the endzone. Whatdoyouknow! A guy who can turn the corner! Wonderful. But then next drive: we're back at our 11 or something terrible like that, and Dawkness hands him the ball again, and immediately he's crushed... or is he? What happened was the most exciting movement of a pile I've seen in about four years. He and his blockers literally moved the ball from a yard behind the line, to ten yards up for the first. It was so lovely, and so encouraging to see a RB who can stay on his feet. My closing thoughts: Dwyer's not there yet, but give him time.

-Dixon is so much fun, but won't be the starter when the regular season kicks off. They put him out there with the first teams and he stunk. Part of it was that they asked him to play the Ben Roethlisberger script, and that's an unfair request of anybody, especially someone with a skill set so far removed from #7. I hate to blame literally EVERYTHING on B.A., but the word out of camp is that Arians wants Dixon to throw more. That's a dumb thing, Bruce. You're a dumb man. A dumb, dumb idiot! You fucking moron! I FUCKING HATE YOU GODDAMN ALL YOUR PLAYING CALLING YOU STUPID PIECE OF DIRT!!!! WHY CAN'T YOU BE SMART??

Here's the thing with Dixon: there's the handoff, the PA pass, and the PA scramble. They ran all of these in the most predictable order and got routinely stuffed, and Dixon routinely picked. He needs to run the handoff, and the straight-up pass play that he breaks and runs out of when he realizes he's a terrible passer and can't make it. If they run those two plays, they'll be fine. But alas, tonight buried him on the depth chart for another year. My guess: he'll be on the practice squad of the Eagles, August 2011.

-In a few days, Big Ben will meet with Goodell about his pending suspension. My guess is that the Raj will reduce it from 6 game to 4, in accordance with popular opinion ("he hasn't raped anyone in 4 months, why should he be suspended for so long!?"). My own opinion: dude should be in prison. I have absolutely no illusions that he's somehow matured in the down time he's been given. If anything "Corey Rawson, OH" is just another foray in meathead mania, and laying low is not the same thing as making amends for past wrongs.

-Does anyone else think Byron Leftwich bears an uncanny resemblance to Gary Coleman?

Preseason week 2, wrap-up

2010-08-23T21:38:00.000-07:00

Sorry I'm late on this, busy weekend.

This is one of those times where we have to say: fuck you, New York. Of all things ridiculous...

Sepulveda is amazing. He had 4 more punts at an average clip of 49 yards per kick. On top of that he made a fantastic drag-down tackle when his coverage unit bailed on him. Tomlin had him kicking off instead of Reed in the second half: this is good. This is what we want in the future. Skippy = accurate leg, not much power.

"I'm going to continue to do what I've been doing and everything will play itself out."
—C Justin Hartwig on his competition with rookie Maurkice Pouncey.

Here's how everything is going to play out: you're going to lose your job to Maurky Maurk. That's how it's going to play out.

Pouncey was at center for some of the first team's plays, and he looked like he knew what he was doing. I didn't get a chance to see him lay any pull blocks, but he held up in pass protection, which is really all we ever asked.

The Leftwich bomb to Wallace was really, really cool. It was basically the "go outrun everyone, Mike!" play. And he executed it, and Leftwich threw the ball, literally about 50 yards, where Wallace caught it and carried it an additional 20, untouched. Now to be fair, he was probably against a scrub DB in single coverage. But what this play keeps telling us is that Mike Wallace may actually be really good. We saw it last year, but weren't sure if it was sheer talent, or just favorable matchups. It may well be that we have a real talent in #17.

The word on the street regarding the two WRs we got in this year's draft is that they're also lightning fast. We'll see about hands once they start taking hits.

Lefty played a much better game. He played like he wanted it, which is really all we want to see. Nothing would be worse than seeing one of our QBs phone it in because he knows he doesn't have competition. Leftwich had some nice, deep passes and he also, shockingly, fought off some tackles and waddled upfield for some gains.

This next week is in Denver. I'm thinking about maybe taking off work and driving 13 hours to see it. Anyone want to come?

Let's talk about THAT guy...

2010-08-19T23:03:00.000-07:00

My general feeling about Brett Favre is one of mild annoyance. If pressed to consider it further, it'd probably turn to all out indifference. But let's try to care for a minute, because I have something relatively new to bring to the table.

Given: Brett Favre is a good player and a messed up dude.

1. I know the first part because I watch football and trust that these numbers are correct.

2. I didn't really consider the second part until recently because of the aforementioned indifference, but let me tell you what informed my opinion:

This spring I had the chance to meet Al 'Bubba' Baker, a fantastic defensive lineman from the 1980s. He shared several interesting insights* about the game, notably that the best part of it was the camaraderie. He said he loved playing football, but that he never missed it. He missed his teammates, his friends. He said that the best part of the sport was the deep bonds it formed with others, and that he missed going to work with 52 best friends every day.

He went on to speculate about Brett Favre. Al said that at a certain point, no one misses the game; it's just too brutal, and there's too much else to life to keep playing. He said that if Brett Favre missed being with his teammates and friends, he wouldn't be shortchanging training camp and practices; but, as we know, Brett the (former) Jet hasn't been in camp the last three years. Therefore, the thing Brett misses is the sound of the crowd. And if at age 40, a man can't be satisfied unless he's in a room of 80,000 admirers, then he's a silly mess.

So taking all this into consideration, I'm not so much annoyed by Brett Favre. I'm annoyed by the ESPN hype machine that liberally jizzes the word 'intangibles' on him, like he's some kind of Sidney Crosby or Derek Jeter. But as for Favre, I mostly just view him as pitiable. I mean, it's a pretty simple, defensible premise that my friend Bubba is proposing: this is a 40-year-old man who is tremendously rich, successful and talented, yet can't rest in peace; he'd rather take the physical beating than the silence. Almost a Kafkaian anti-hero, but I hardly want to afford him such epic martyrdom. He's really just a prick who needs approval and attention.

I'll say this about him going forward: a lot of people like the Vikings in 2010 because they were just one score away from the Super Bowl in 09. Truth is, they were the beneficiaries of parity. Their season ended exactly where it should have: well ahead of the pack, but short of great. As seen in the game against us, and in the NFC championship, they could be tamed by a physical game plan (the Ravens also put it to them with the same strategy, and came up a lucky field goal short). In 2010, the Vikings will be loose in the secondary, and this will tax the very talented D-line. The running game will continue to be superb IF healthy. The receivers are decent to good. And the passer... he's 40 and surrounded by good, if not great, all around him. Again, IF healthy, things will be okay. But great?

Doubtful.

If I was I was Brett, and I wanted to win a championship, I'd probably just sit down in my arm chair, put on a DVD of the '96 Packers and kill myself with an overdose of painkillers. If I wanted adoration from the ever discerning Bachmann/Franken constituency, I'd strap it on for another 16 games of nut shattering pain and early playoff exit. So it goes for the latter.

And good luck to you, Brett, you old prick. So best as your interests don't conflict with our interests, thank you.

---

*Another interesting insight from A'B'B was in regards to D-lineman play. Please close your eyes and imagine my friend: he's six and half feet tall, and still probably 260, after losing his playing weight. He's huge. And while he's really nice and personable, I imagine he was quite scary on the field of battle. However, he revealed that the thing that terrified him the most was his own size. He said that his height and weight made him extremely vulnerable to low blocks, and that if an O-lineman were to hit him in the leg, his own weight would crush his lower body. He said that for this reason, he refused to play inside on any line in his career. Only once did he set with a lineman on either side of him, and it was a field goal block; every other down, he insisted on playing defensive end, never tackle. If a blocker was dropping down on him, he wanted to be able to swerve to an outside lane, and not be caught inside another fatty.

I mention all this because I've always been fascinated by the body types of lineman. The nose tackle is supposed to be no more than 6'2" and no less than 330 lbs. Ends are supposed to be taller and leaner. I always assumed this was because of leverage: that an NT had an advantage in keeping his pads low if he was short, and that an end needed length to seal up the edge. But perhaps, it also has to do with basic safety. A tall man is indeed more vulnerable to a cut block. And if that tall guy doesn't have a lane to escape to, then he brings down his teammates with him. Meanwhile, a short fatty is harder to bring down by his legs, and if he is taken out, he doesn't pull the other D-linemen with him.

Just a thought.

Pre-season, game one

2010-08-14T20:07:00.000-07:00

What have we learned from the first half of a shitty, fake game that was disrupted by a small hurricane passing through Allegheny county?

1. Our defensive starters are still the scariest people in the world when they're all healthy and doing their thing. Yes, I know it's just the Lions, and our first team defense should be automatic against them; but still, seeing it happen is a very refreshing sight, especially after a year of defensive chokes against bad teams.

I thought Aaron Smith and Lawrence Timmons both looked like they had something to prove. Smith, obviously because he missed time, and wants to get back out there hitting people. Timmons, because I think he wants to take the next step towards becoming a star. Last year's campaign wasn't the thriller we all thought it would be; yes, his sack numbers were up, but that was a result of him being used as a pass rusher on third down. What was missing from his game was a dominance against the run, which is what Larry Foote always provided. With Foote back in town, it looks like Timmons is making a case for why it should be Farrior who gets platooned, not him. (I don't actually know that the Steelers would ever platoon Farrior, as he's the signal caller for the entire unit.)

Ziggy Hood looked bigger. Reports are that he's put on weight, going from the high 290s to the low 310s. All the veteran linemen rave about his development and ability, so my guess is that he's being groomed to play all three positions on the line. At 6'3", 310 he wouldn't be a true NT, and he'd be a little round for RE, but it's a good tweener size, and should provide him with more than enough versatility if he has the technique down. Creating a rotation of four high quality guys to play three spots will obviously benefit our aging starters as the season goes on. I also wouldn't be surprised if he takes over for Smith as the 1 in the 1-5.

2. Our offense is silly. Thanks, Bruce Arians!

Matt Spaeth is garbage. I wanted to like him. He's like seven feet tall, so you'd think he'd at least be a physical specimen out there. Wrong. He's a slow fatty of a receiver, and absolutely a non-factor in the blocking game. He is the very definition of a backup, scrub TE. This is fine in the sense that every team needs a backup, scrub TE. However, a team that runs multiple TE sets needs two good TEs.

Why am I picking on Matt Spaeth? Because he's taking up space on the field where there should be a FB. Every tailback ever wants a FB. Emmett Smith, in his HoF induction speech last week, saved his biggest thank you for his fullback, saying he couldn't have set the career mark for yards rushed, had it not been for his unsung partner.

Here's the thing: fullbacks typically aren't great athletes. They're slower than halfbacks, weaker than lineman, and smaller than tight ends. Their main asset is their vision; providing the ball carrier with a guide by testing running lanes. They absorb the first hit that was meant for the running back, and a lot of times that can be all the difference on a play.

After several years of single-back formations, I've decided I'm not terribly fond of them. I like the theory that it opens up running lanes because the defense is stretched trying to defend against the pass. But for that theory to pan out, you have to have a legitimately dominant passing unit. We simply don't. No defense is stretched by the offensive prowess of Matt Spaeth. Hines Ward is amazing for more reasons than we can name, but he is not a containment problem for CBs. Same with Miller. Wallace has stretch-worthy speed, but the jury is out on whether he can command double coverage. My point is this: we don't have the personnel to convince teams to play back. We can line up three or four receivers, and they'll still put the safety in the box. When we try to run the ball with no FB and a safety in the box, the matchup is unfavorable for us.

In case you didn't hear, Art Rooney II asked for more running plays this year and Big Ben raped someone and was suspended for a quarter of the season. 2010 is supposed to be a return to smashmouth, grind-em-out, Stillers football. Everything will suck if we call more running plays, but do it out of formations that feign to be pass-likely.

Tonight Mendenhall made some decent cuts, coughed up the ball due to terrible technique, and got stuffed immediately after receiving some handoffs; that's good, terrible, and not his fault, respectively. He was getting hit behind the line by DBs from the worst secondary in football. This is because he has a terrible line, but also because there's no one in the backfield to lay a block. Even if we were to assume Matt Spaeth was great, having him play outside of the LT is pretty useless when the run blitz is bowling over the center.

Okay, that's enough fullback ranting for now. There'll be more later.

3. Our second string defense is shit. If none of our starters get injured, we'll be fine, but the depth issue is still an issue.

4. Dennis Dixon should probably be the starter. He didn't have to play against the first team defense, but whatever. He provides more wrinkles in the offense.

By that I mean that he challenges a defense by being capable of more than Leftwich. Lefty's probably the better passer, but I've already talked about how this team doesn't scare anyone with its receiving corps. If we had three or four dominant receivers, then I'd get why it'd be important to have a QB who could utilize them all. As it is, there isn't that much more that needs to be done with our receivers than what Dixon can do. Furthermore, he brings the added dimension of speed. We'll hear about it a lot in the next few weeks, but it's really not overrated. Dixon's mobility is so much more challenging for a defense to account for than Leftwich's supposedly superior passing.

Put in Dixon. Scale back on the number of receivers he has to keep track of. Put a FB in the backfield. Run the ball a lot. Set up Dixon to pass or bootleg off the PA. Etc...!

5. Issac Redman should probably make the team this year.

He's a legit powerback. That's what we want. And not just for 3rd and short. For, like... anytime. Anytime we want to knock their D-line back, by muscling them. I know a 5'10, 210 Gary Russell type who can average a 2.6 y/c is appealing... but I really think we'll be happier with a powerback who can play on any down, and can move the ball forward.

A Review of Madden 11

2010-08-09T22:54:00.000-07:00

From the illustrious video game critic, Yahoo!, here's this.

Madden NFL 11, however, has decided to hurl a Hail Mary by tweaking the way plays are called, a feature that has remained fairly consistent for roughly two decades’ worth of gridiron greatness.

I know of four ways in which plays can be called in video game football:

1) The Madden way. You scroll through your packages, augmenting the formations; then you scroll through plays within the formation, three at a time. This really has been the way it's worked since the beginning, and I imagine Madden has some kind of copyright on it, otherwise we'd have seen it elsewhere.

2) The play-type way. Instead of a formation, you select what kind of play you want (run, pass, deep pass, PA, etc.), then you select a play out of there. This was what Nintendo games used before Madden, and it's actually available as a feature of easy play in Madden. NFL Street and Blitz use it. I hate it.

3) The 2K way. In NFL 2K3, play calling involved looking at about six different formation names at once, all of them more or less within the same package. To switch packages, you scrolled to the next screen. Once you picked a formation, you assigned your linemen to a specific pattern, then you picked your play. This was kind of cool, and actually pretty close to how teams call plays in real life (the coach sends in the personnel, the center or MLB give the linemen their assignments, and the QB or MLB tells everyone else the play). It required the user to know formations by nickname, as opposed to modifying a package's shape until reaching the desired formation, and that kind of sucked. But on the whole, it was a decent alternative to Madden.

4) The Ask Madden way. Sometimes you can just press a button and the game will select a play for you. Don't do this. This isn't how video games work.

Anyway. Back to the review.

IGN jumps right in and gets its hands dirty with Madden 11's biggest new feature: Gameflow, a one-button playcalling system that automatically chooses the best play for your given situation, turning marathon Madden games into much quicker experiences.

Well that misses the point of why we play video games. We play video games to play them, not to get them over with faster.

Maybe this is just the difference between people like me who look to Madden for quality simulation, and people who are online gamers, playing for arcade value. I don't know, I suppose Madden has become its own sport, separate from football. But what a silly sport indeed, if it's doing away with the creativity of play calling.

"If you're someone who's new to Madden or if the complexities of figuring out formation types was too much for you in the past, you're going to enjoy the bulk of what GameFlow does for you," says reviewer Nate Ahearn, though he points out that the artificial intelligence "makes some bone-headed play calls that...will likely be lamented by hardcore veterans of the series." Still, the game's got enough oomph to warrant a solid 8/10.

If you're someone who's new to Madden, why not just set it to easy mode or Ask Madden? Why dumb down the default?

Maybe I'm making too big of an assumption that there aren't awesome playcalling complexities available somewhere in the game. Perhaps there are. I sure hope so, because that's where this franchise should be going. These games are bulky enough to handle various modes of playcalling, I imagine, and that's what they should do. I should be able to log into my game on a Belichick level, and be presented not only with a complex playbook, but the need to gameplan and modify my playbook accordingly. There are some of us who want to waste our time pretending to be Dick LeBeau, not Ike Taylor.

That's my review of a game I've never played.

Yahoo! thinks you should buy it. I agree, because that still doesn't cost me anything, and someday, I'll be back in Pittsburgh to play it for you.

Buy Madden 11!

Watch this instead of doing some work

2010-08-09T00:50:00.000-07:00

Answers to Questions you're not even asking

2010-08-08T21:19:00.000-07:00

The Carolina Panthers should be better than the 8-8 record they sported last year. They had a very fine defense and two 1,000 yard rushers. What cost them was the complete implosion of veteran leader, Jake Delhomme, who went 4-7 in 11 games as their QB. After realizing that his sub-60 QB rating wasn't getting any better, the Panthers pulled him for young scrub, Matt Moore. Moore filled in very well, posting a 98.5 rating and a 4-1 record. Why then do I refer to him as a scrub? Several reasons. 1) He's undersized at 6'3 and 192 lbs. Sure there are small QBs, but the kind that are groomed to be starters are trained to put on weight by age 25. 2) His very excellent numbers were heavily fed by the fact that the team around him worked so well. Having an excellent defense and a powerhouse running game means a QB can average 150 y/g and still get some wins. 3) The Panthers made a point of drafting Notre Dame product, Jimmy Clausen in the 2nd round this year. They envision him being the QB of the future. 4) Moore's numbers are mediocre outside of that season.

In conclusion: the Panthers can win if they keep their defense healthy (they lost 30-year-old Julius Peppers to the Bears, but I say they manage), the run game coming, and a reasonably-solid QB under center. They're not built for a great QB to come in and take over, but if Clausen does what Mark Sanchez and Ben Roethlisberger did as rookies, they'll be a game or two over 8-8.

Mike Shanahan is the right guy for the Redskins. Assuming that nutslap fan base gives him some breathing room, he should thrive in Landover. Here's why: the team's two biggest problems last year were a lack of strategic vision and a terrible O-line. Shanahan is known for both his clarity in objectives and his hallmark zone-blocking scheme. He's known for getting great years out of no-name running backs because of how he trains his O-linemen, and that's what Washington is going to need in the future. In the present... things may be a little sticky. Idiot owner, Dan Snyder, has brought in a collection of big names that are over the hill or will soon be. Shanahan is going to have to retrain his blockers (should be a little easier with the retirement Chris Samuels and the drafting of Trent Williams at LT) and hope an aging Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, Santana Moss and Donovan McNabb are enough to keep defenses guessing (they're not). His success will come in 2012, not 2010.

The 3-4 is not the best system for everyone. This is more of a follow-up to the last point about the Redskins, who along with half the league, switched defensive schemes. Here's the breakdown of teams that run the 3-4:
-Patriots (hybrid)
-Jets
-Dolphins
-Bills
-Browns
-Ravens (hybrid)
-Steelers
-Broncos
-Chiefs
-Chargers
-Cowboys
-Redskins
-Packers
-Saints (hybrid)
-Cardinals (hybrid)
-49ers

That is exactly half the league running what was once a novelty scheme. What gives?

Mike Tomlin always says it's a "copycat league" and that these trends play out every several years. Indeed, in the late 80s and early 90s, the 3-4 was very much in vogue, popularized mainly by the New York Giants, a team we think of now as a stalwart of the 4-man front.

Anyway, enough history, here's my point: really great defenses are the product of personnel as much as they are of system. Dick LeBeau and Bill Belichick can operate 3-4 schemes because they've spent years carefully selecting the right players and grooming them to their specific roles. Rex Ryan can get a lot out of the Jets' young 3-4 because he spent years figuring it out in Baltimore while Eric Mangini brought the right personnel into New York. The Packers ruffled the feathers of DE Aaron Kampman, but ultimately made the right decision playing all 4 'backers instead of benching one. Sometimes the 3-4 is good, it works, etc.

Sometimes it's a stupid idea. It's probably a stupid idea in Landover, Maryland. I mean, within a year or two, there isn't going to be much left of the current defensive unit, so it's not like Shanahan is breaking up some Hall of Fame group. He is showing how much he doesn't care for Albert Haynesworth (fat Albert is returning the favor), by asking the dominant DT to play NT. I don't know... if I had Haynesworth, and I REALLY wanted to go to the 3-4, I'd ask him to be a DE. But whatever. This is an example of a weird switch that is ruffling feathers and doesn't have any personnel in place to justify it.

Another example of this is in Buffalo. Buffalo actually had an above average defense last year. Their main problem was an abysmal offense and stifling competition. Why switch to a 3-4? It would seem they're trying to jump-start the young career of Aaron Maybin, a DE they took in the 1st round last year. Maybin had a pathetic rookie year and consistently seemed out of place at his position. He's 6'4" and 245 lbs, so he's definitely overmatched at the line. The trick of course, isn't just penciling him in on the depth chart differently; it's training him to be a linebacker. Just because a guy is a stellar, if undersized pass-rusher in college, doesn't mean he can backpedal into coverage in the pros. In conclusion: Buffalo is messing with eleven guys to fix one.

The Broncos and Chiefs are both under the influence of Bill Belichick's cancerous feces. The 3-4 isn't understood or utilized by either team.

The Saints and Cardinals are both fun defenses to watch. Neither is particularly good. In fact, they're both kind of crummy if you're looking at points-allowed. However, if you look at points scored off of turnovers, they're both okay. They each run a hybrid 3-4, where they'll show you that 4-man front on certain downs against the run, but also have 3-3 nickel look, and a 3-4 passing defense. The Saints stayed in the 3-3 nickel throughout the entire Super Bowl; this was due to Peyton Manning's stats against 3-man fronts.

The Cardinals continue to be Pittsburgh-West, now with the addition of Joey Porter to bookend with Clark Haggans. With these two on the outside, Arizona cuts a DE loose, and moves DT Darnell Dockett to end. I've always liked Docket, and I'm curious as to how he'll do as a 3-4 DE. He's 6'4, 285 lbs, which is small for a 4-3 DT, and even kind of light for a 3-4 end (though comparable to Brett Keisel). His M.O. was that he'd use his "slender" frame to slip through interior lineman. Doing a swim-move past the center is a lot different than power-rushing a left tackle. Will he make the transition? We'll see!

The New York Giants were a bigger defensive disappointment than the Steelers last year. They have like three, AMAZING defensive ends, some mediocre DTs, maybe one linebacker, and a very young secondary. They drafted more defensive linemen this year, which won't really help things in the immediate future. Their receiving corps. is young and promising, their O-line is steady but aging, and Eli is going to regress this year. Ahmad Bradshaw is only 24, but he's going to have to take over as the featured back, as Brandon Jacobs turns 28. My feeling is that the offense isn't going to get much better than what it was last year, and therefore, if the defense doesn't improve, the Giants stay mediocre.

The Atlanta Falcons may slip. They seemed to be improving in the post-Vick era, what with rookie Matt Ryan taking over in 2008. Last year he regressed a little, and dealt with injuries. Now he'll be entering his third year, trying to make plays with an aging set of skill-players. He's pretty good, and similar to Joe Flacco in someways, but he could really use a Ray Rice. If the Falcons want a playoff spot, they'll have to get there on defense.

Aaron Rodgers is the best QB no one's ever heard of. Yeah, I know, we've all heard of him. But I don't think I've ever seen him in a commercial, he's never been the little brother of someone who's been a commercial, he's never married a super model, he's never raped anyone, he's never facilitated a dog fighting ring, he's never been to the Super Bowl... hell, he's only played two years as a starter. He's pretty much Philip Rivers, only he operates in icy conditions and has a far shittier o-line. He's pretty much Philip Rivers, only better. The Packers badly need an infusion of youth in their skill players to keep him going, though. Donald Driver is on the same kind of borrowed time that Hines Ward is on, and then some. Ryan Grant was never great, and will soon by turning 28: bad combination. Does Rodgers survive on his own? I say yes. Expect a passer rating in the mid to low 90s, and slightly fewer sacks this year. That should be enough that the Packer defense will carry them to the playoffs again.

Beanie Wells in Arizona could be the breakout player of the year, if he remains healthy. He was a phenomenal ball carrier at OSU, combining size, strength and speed in just a deadly way. He was eased into the Cardinals' system as a rookie, last year, and showed he could produce as the season went on. This year, they'll be without Kurt Warner, and the word on the street is that Whisenhunt will be moving away from a passing offense, and more towards a power-run game. Should there be any QB doubts, like there were in Tennessee this past season, expect Wells to get the same kind of boost to his numbers that Chris Johnson saw.

Chris Johnson is not god. He's just this really good RB with great cutting speed. In exactly two years, he'll be a lot less impressive. Rushing for 2,000 yards is cool, but it's a sign that you're all a team has, and if all a team is going to do is rush you 350+ times a year, you're going to die. Real fast.

Maurice Jones-Drew is god. He's 5'8", 200 lbs, and really fucking tough to tackle. What makes him so valuable isn't just his ball carrying skills, but his receiving abilities. In the last four years, he's started 20 games, but has 5,706 yards from the line of scrimmage. Let me explain: he was a utility player for three years, and a starting half back for one, and in that time, he rushed/received for close to 6,000 yards. That's insane. Let's toss on the yards he picked up from kick returns: that brings the total to 7,889 yards. Woof! He's still only going to be 25, and considering that he never carried the ball more than 200 times in a season before last year, I'd say he still has some staying power. Multi-purpose backs tend to have a much longer shelf-life than pure workhorses like Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson or Willie Parker. Keep that in mind.

This year's draft shouldn't have too many busts in it. I say that because the first round and top selections were mostly linemen, and rarely do we get upset over them. The running backs, receivers and QBs were distributed throughout, with a lot of top flight guys staying on the board fairly late. Expect some fine rookie production out of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders.

More to come.

The Bengals

2010-08-01T23:01:00.000-07:00

The AFC North is an ugly place these days. It could produce a lot of very competitive football. If you had asked me a month ago who I thought was in the driver's seat, I'd have said the Ravens. I'd still probably go with that answer, just because I think they have a better ability to control the ground game in both directions.

However, that's not to overlook the Bengals. Cincinnati will likely control the airways more than any other team in the division. Not enough is said about it, but they have the best tandem of corners in the entire league. Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph both racked up 6 picks and over 70 tackles last year. That is tremendous production, and it absolutely dwarfs anything anyone in the AFC North is doing, this side of Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed.

Ah yes... Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed. About them.

Troy has held the distinction of being the best safety on the planet for at least 25 games in the last three calendar years. The problem of course, is that he's injury prone, and as seen last season, the only impact player in the Pittsburgh secondary. He's also aging, and while 30 isn't ridiculously old, it's not pre-injury mid-20s, like those DBs in Cinci.

Ed Reed is very similar to Polamalu, in that he's a beast, but really a man alone in his secondary. He's also injury-prone, and will start the season on the disabled list. Reports have him out for the first 6 weeks, which is really why we're talking about the Bengals having a chance. With Reed out, and the Ravens unable to field quality CBs, it's open season to pass on those dirty birds.

That's where TO comes in. As you may have read, the Bengals decided to add to their stable of character-issue punks when they went out to sign Terrell Owens. As far as the off-field, rumor mill goes: who the fuck cares? Here's what I care about: TO is 6'3, 224. Chad Ochocinco is 6'1, 192. Antonio Bryant is 6'1, 205. First round rookie sensation TE, Jermaine Gresham is 6'6, 261. Those are some big receivers, none of whom are drop-prone.

Anytime you have that combination over four guys, you really don't need a speedster in the bunch. Just ask San Diego. That's been their formula for winning the division these last few years. Expect a lot of bunch formations and single back looks, at least early in the game. Cinci won't be able to keep it up for 60 minutes on account of their receiving corp's age, but if Palmer can do his thing in the first half, then you'll see them bring out the fullback and start pounding the ball with Cedric Benson.

I actually don't think much of Benson, and feel that the advantage Ray Rice has over him is the difference between the two teams. If there's a way to beat Cinci, it'll be to divide the offense. Put all the pressure on the receivers or put all the pressure on the running game. Neither unit will be able to carry the team, and that's when you can expect locker room tensions to form.

I like Cinci's linebackers (all three are kind of hidden gems in the same way the CBs are), but they don't have a Ray Lewis at that position, or any other, to keep the team focused.

In conclusion: this has the makings for a very solid Bengals team. They were above average defensively last year, and below average offensively, but have made some offseason improvements to bring up the latter. I think they'll pose a challenge to everyone on their schedule, but ultimately, the lack of an explosive playmaker will leave them vulnerable to good, comprehensive defenses, like the kind you see in January.

Thoughts on the Super Bowl

2010-02-07T20:09:00.000-08:00

If you like basketball, you probably liked Super Bowl XLIV.

If you like watching the CPU play the CPU in chess on your PowerBook, you probably liked Super Bowl XLIV.

If you live along the gulf coast or were personally affected by the horror of Hurricane Katrina or really any other major catastrophe which has left you in need of spiritual healing, you probably liked Super Bowl XLIV.

-----------

I liked it well enough, in that there was no disparity in talent, and it really was a fair fight at the highest possible level of the sport.

-----------

I didn't like the lack of a story line outside of the volleys of offensive production. There was nothing to do with physicality in this game, and there was no offense-defense matchup to develop over the course of the game.

Some examples of what I like out of a football game:

-The conference championship games two weeks ago. Great story line in watching the Saints hit Favre after every throw; we all kept wondering how many more of those could he take before he was throwing off his back foot and into coverage; then, we found out. Or even in the Colts-Jets game, watching Manning go after Revis, fearlessly, and just work on him with routes that he couldn't cover.

-The Patriots-Giants super bowl, where the New York D-line surprised the hell out of the Pats' O-line, and put Brady completely on tilt. Even though there wasn't a defining defensive play, there was a development that progressed as the game went on. Meanwhile, you have Eli and his offense scrapping together just enough to pull off an upset against a far superior unit on the other side.

-Last year, when you had the best offense versus the best defense, and saw both rise to the challenge and make adjustments right up until the end.

That's really the point I'm getting at here: there weren't any major adjustments made in this match. It was pretty much just brinkmanship, and waiting for a mistake.

I will say this: props to New Orleans for the onside kick, and good for both teams going for it on 4th down. Also it was vaguely noteworthy to follow Dwight Freeney's condition as the night went on, and kind of mentionable that the Saints came out nervous and then settled down.

Other than that, it was just basketball.

p.s. The commercials mostly sucked.

LIVE blog

2010-01-16T18:39:00.001-08:00

If we're going to play the "judging by his eyes..." game, then I'd say the Ravens are done. Immediately before we went to halftime commercials, Joe Flacco shot the camera a look that told all. It was the old "I wish I had a WR, hey look that hall of fame QB I'm playing against has FIVE WRs" look.

I've seen a team similar to this Ravens group beat the Colts in this divisional game. But, the trick to that epic battle was that the Steelers jumped out on top and force Peyton to play catch up. If he's ever on the other side of the score, you're pretty much fucked.

So, with 30 more minutes to play, in a 14 point game, I'm thinking it's going to be very, very impressive if the Ravens win.

Oh...fuck this !

2010-01-10T18:59:00.000-08:00

This.

The four teams that received first-round byes in the NFL playoffs have a combined record of 52-12. To say they ran over the competition en route to the postseason would not be entirely accurate.

The combined record of the four first-round bye teams isn't significant. They're the teams with the four best records in football; you'd expect it to be a lot of wins to very few losses.

All of those teams have won big by using the pass as their primary mode of moving the ball. Their success may initiate what could be considered a seismic shift in strategy — if it hasn't already happened.

Knute Rockne happened in the early 1900s. Fuck you, Trib.

The Indianapolis Colts are challenging the long-standing football tenet that victory is directly proportional to a team's ability to run the ball. Indianapolis finished the regular season with a 14-2 record despite ranking 31st out of 32 teams in rushing offense.

I guess it's kind of interesting and mildly noteworthy that the Colts succeeded without running much. But, if we're going to say that there isn't a correlation between rushing and winning, then we have to add that there is no correlation between passing and winning. The 5-11 Seahawks led all teams in pass attempts. The thing that makes the Colts so good isn't their playing philosophy; it's that they have the best possible players ever for executing that style.

The Peyton Manning-led Colts were No. 2 in passing offense, and of the eight division winners, only the Cincinnati Bengals did not rank in the top 10 in that category.

I like this "eight division winners" cherry-pick, implying that the four wildcard teams were worse units than the higher seeds. Coincidentally... it's those wildcard teams that blow some massive holes through Scott Brown's argument.

The Bengals are ranked last among the 12 playoff teams by Las Vegas oddsmakers, according to gaming expert R.J. Bell of pregame.com.

No kidding. And that would be behind Dallas (7th overall in the rushing yards), New Orleans (6th), Baltimore (5th), and New York (1st).

"I've said a thousand times, the league evolves offensively and defensively," said Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who threw for a franchise-record 4,328 yards this season. "And you have to keep up with Indianapolis, the (New Orleans) Saints, teams like that. Because if you don't, you are going to be left behind."

Ben: "I LiKe hOw SOmeTImES AND then wE ChanGe HOw THInGs worK anD I LIKE to PASS the BaLL arf!"

The passing sensibility that has gripped the NFL is evident even with a team such as the 12-4 Minnesota Vikings.

Oh my god, we're about to find out if it's possible to hate Brett Favre any more than we already do.

While Adrian Peterson rushed for almost 1,400 yards this season, quarterback Brett Favre became the centerpiece of the Vikings' offense. Minnesota ranked eighth in the NFL in passing offense.

Minnesota had a gravy train of offense. That they were 8th in passing yards, yet 2nd in overall points tells you that they have found a pretty efficient balance. Also: that they had a guy run for 1400 yards doesn't exactly put them in the same camp as the "can't run / can't lose" Colts that started this article.

"I think what people are starting to see is that 'three or four yards and a cloud of dust' is not good enough anymore, and that we need chunk plays," said Miami Dolphins coach Tony Sparano, whose team finished 7-9 despite ranking fourth in rushing offense.

People are starting to see that? People like the Jets? Like the Ravens?

Also, hint for Sparano: your offense was pretty good; it was your defense that failed you, buddy.

The Steelers, who have long been associated with a smash-mouth ethos, appeared to embrace that concept this season as they finished seventh in passing offense.

Nothing like bouncing from one team that didn't make the playoffs to another, just to show that two different approaches can yield the same basic result.

More and more, defenses are daring teams to throw, which often results in bigger passing numbers.

What the fuck? That was 1985 that Buddy Ryan was challenging teams to throw on him. More and more, teams are using a nickel as a base defense these days.

"If you get eight in the box, that means there's three covering, and you have three receivers," Philadelphia Eagles fullback Leonard Weaver said. "So if you have those odds, that's exactly what you'll take."

Yes. Agreed. If you see a team in their goalline package and you've got 3-wide, you should absolutely throw the ball. But most of the time when that mismatch happens, a defense will realize they're in the wrong sub-package and call a timeout. I want to stress that what fullback Leonard Weaver is talking about isn't a commonplace event. The defense is very attuned to what substitutions need to be made between plays.

The odds are further stacked against defensive backs because of rules that are geared toward more scoring and higher TV ratings.

Whoa, whoa, whoa... conspiracy theory about television ratings? No need for that!

Defensive players are not allowed to initiate contact with a receiver beyond 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. A pass interference penalty, meanwhile, is a spot foul; in college it is a 15-yard infraction.

Offensive players are not allowed to initiate contact beyond 5 yards. It's called bump-and-run. Also, here's the top 5 teams to receive first downs thanks to penalties:

1. Patriots
2. Seahawks
3. Falcons
4. Packers
5. Lions

Peyton Manning doesn't throw the ball because he's looking for a flag. Peyton Manning throws the ball because he's really fucking good at throwing the ball.

"If you're smart, you've got to take advantage of that," Eagles linebacker Jeremiah Trotter said of the rules that help passing offenses. "You can't really touch the receiver after five yards, and if you breathe on them, you get a flag. You'd be crazy not to take advantage of that."

I'm not arguing that it's easier to pass now more than ever before. In fact, I'm completely agreeing with it, and saying that that's why so many good teams have good passing numbers: because almost everyone has good passing numbers. Good teams and bad teams. And there are good teams and bad teams with good rushing numbers. What defines a team's success isn't philosophy: it's how well the players fit a philosophy.

More and more teams are doing just that, said Steelers inside linebacker James Farrior, a 13-year veteran.

Don't talk to these people, James.

"When I first came into the league, there was a lot more running involved," he said. "I think with the type of athletes we have on offense, you're more apt to go to for big plays. The main guy on the field is the quarterback, and they want to throw the ball 100,000 times a game."

That's all probably true. People are passing a lot these days. People are also winning and people are losing in equal measure.

San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers set career highs this season in passing attempts (486) and yards (4,254), and he is a major reason why the Chargers take an 11-game winning streak into the postseason.

He is the only reason the Chargers have an 11-game winning streak. Rivers is absolutely outstanding. I will be very interested in how far San Diego will go without a defense or running game. Today the Ravens' Joe Flacco had a QB rating of 10.0, yet was on the winning side of a blowout because his team could run and play defense. At the same time, Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers were absolutely lighting the world on fire in Arizona, throwing for 9 TDs and 800 yards; yet, one of them had to lose because his team played even worse defense than his opponent.

This isn't earth-shattering stuff here: teams win because they're a better matchup than the other team. Not because they do a single, specific thing extremely well.

Rivers has taken over an offense that not too long ago ran through running back LaDainian Tomlinson, the league's MVP in 2006.

Yes. It's very impressive what San Diego is capable of. But they're also vulnerable to being shut down when a defense (like Baltimore's in week 2 or ours in week 4) sells out to stop Rivers.

But Rivers said the running game is still vital to the Chargers' offense, which works best off play-action passes.

Why the fuck would you include a quote like that? Are you trying to disprove your own argument for me?

That teams are not about to abandon the run can be seen in what happened with the Steelers last week. Coach Mike Tomlin considered going in another direction with the offense even though the Steelers had their first 4,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard receivers and 1,000-yard rusher in franchise history.

Nothing like winning your fantasy league in week 16, and then returning to actual football for the finale, Mike.

Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians is returning for at least one more season, but the Steelers could put more of an emphasis on running the ball in 2010.

What reason do you have for offering me hope, Trib?

"Teams still run the ball," Trotter said. "They have to establish the run. But a lot of times you see teams in passing sets and run the ball that way. It's the nature of the beast."

That.

That was really good.

I knew you were coming back with something weak, but I did not see it being that weak. Well done.

About the Rooney Rule

2010-01-10T11:01:00.000-08:00

The Rooney rule is in the news for some stupid reason.

Let me explain something: Dan Rooney didn't design this policy to make a coaching search more cumbersome. He simply assumed that teams knew it was in their own best interest to do their due diligence and have a lengthy hiring process. That's been the key to him only having to find a new coach every 15 years. Because he doesn't impulse hire a white guy he's never met.

So, whatever. If the Seahawks, Redskins, Bills and Browns want to cut corners when filling vacancies, that's their business. It's not in the spirit of the Rooney philosophy-- but there's no point in the league punishing teams for not having common sense. It'll catch up to them one way or another.

FYI

2010-01-09T16:00:00.000-08:00

This is the most bizarre petty crime of 2010.

I'll also add this as a little live blogging: the Bengals came into the 4th quarter down 21-7 to New York. The Bengals have only outscored an opponent by 14 in a single quarter four times this season, and two of those quarters were in a blowout against the Bears. As for the Jets, they've only been outscored by 14 or more in one quarter once, and that was in a beat down they got from New England. The Jets have also had seven games in which they've held their opponent to less than 14 points total.

Things aren't looking great for Cinci, even with Benson's TD making it 21-14.

The Next Big Snack?

2010-01-07T21:02:00.002-08:00

I've been watching this BCS National Championship Game between Alabama and Texas, doing a little scouting work for Kevin Colbert. The player of note is Alabama's senior defensive tackle, Terrence Cody. Mount Cody, as he's called, is 6'5" and 365 lbs.

He has no sacks on the year, and very few defensive stats. However, he's 6'5 and 365 lbs.

The scouting report on him is that he's only good for two downs, and that he gets sloppy in some of his fundamentals the more he's on the field. However, he's 6'5 and 365 lbs.

Watching him play is amazing. He does what great nose tackles do, which is completely disrupt the interior of the offensive line. I don't think he got close to the ball once, but he kept the guards from being able to pull, which made it easy for the linebackers to track down the running back. He also left massive holes in the pocket because blockers had to triple team, thus allowing other pass rushers easy access to the QB. There was one 4th and inches when Texas went for it on the sneak, and you could see the Longhorns sell out three guys on Cody, while everyone else on the Alabama D-line was able to get a hand on the QB for a stop.

Oh, and he also lines up as a punishing fullback in goal line situations.

What are the chances we get a guy like that, picking in the bottom third of the draft?

Not as bad as you may think.

Ndamukong Suh is going to take up a lot of buzz, being the purest at his position, and the first DT off the board. Then there's also a guy from Penn State and a guy from Tennessee who'll probably have higher draft grades based on health. That's the thing about Cody, is that he really broke through late in his college career because of injuries.

A lot more to look at, so much more to consider. But, I'd say this: drafting defensive linemen in the first round in consecutive years may happen, if the right player comes along. We need a big infusion of impact level talent up front.

Most Interesting Games This Week

2010-01-07T16:05:00.000-08:00

New York @ Cincinnati - New York is a much better team than Cinci. Last week was the Bengals definitely taking one off, but I wouldn't be surprised if they come out trying and meet a similar end. All year the Bengals have played tight games. It's like their presence on the field stalls both them and their opponents, and neither team can put on much of a show. Only twice have the Bengals scored more than 30 points, and only twice have they allowed 30 or more points. If they're going to win, they need to come out firing. Otherwise the Jets will be able to match them in the slop and trenches.

Philadelphia @ Dallas - If only they could both lose. I've been saying Phillie's better for a while now, but I'm not sure that's true. Dallas has a defense for some reason. Can they choke? Absolutely. But so can the Eagles.

Baltimore @ New England - If only they could both lose. On paper, you could make a case for New England being the best team in the AFC and Baltimore being not far behind. But, that's bullshit. New England is soft in the secondary, while Baltimore is weak in the receiving corps. This game should be decided on the strengths though, with Baltimore needing points off turnovers and the Pats needing Moss to pick up the slack.

Green Bay @ Arizona - Green Bay is my dark horse in the NFC for the obvious reason that they're very good. Arizona, on the other hand, has taken 16 games to prove they're very mediocre. But they did that last season and still came up big. You'd think Charles Woodson would provide an interesting matchup against the Cardinal receiving corps, but I was not at all impressed with his work against Santonio when we saw the Pack in December. The way these two teams can score points, I'd be surprised if there was a beat down. More likely that one will escape this game and move on.

Open Letter To Tarnow, Re: Bruce Arians

2010-01-07T14:09:00.000-08:00

Here, read this. It's very smart, and more or less agreeable.

I've said it before, I'm not opposed to Bruce Arians the coach, I'm opposed to Bruce Arians the playcaller. I don't like it when our offense makes an easy situation much harder than it needs to be, and I tend to blame him for that. I love that our veteran playmakers are finding continued success and that our younger guys are developing very rapidly. That's a great sign, and that's something which also has to be the result of the coaching.

The article I linked you to above is very smart. However, it's predicated on a lot of wishful thinking. Being able to articulate what we like about BA and what we don't, and then requesting that he just make the necessary changes doesn't really work. We're bloggers; not real people with actual influence.

The case for why Bruce Arians should be retained is simple and unimpressive: he's not the reason we didn't make the playoffs, and he won't be in the future. Losing continuity by firing him a year before his contract is up seems to be rash in light of that. I'm not for congratulating him, like the other blogger is; more like grudgingly accepting his retention as a safe move in uncertain times.

Let me explain.

Yes, he's a fuck. But his players like him. It's important to keep them happy, because things could get real crazy on the other side of the ball. We have major holes to fill on the D-line and in the secondary, all while the LBing corps ages. I'm not saying doom and gloom for the D, but it's hard to imagine that next year's unit will be a "special" group. It'll be a year in transition, which isn't always fun, but also isn't always bad.

So here's what I'm proposing: let Bruce do his thing, one more time, while giving the D a year to rebuild and reset itself. It probably won't be championship caliber football, but firing Bruce Arians wasn't going to make it that anyway.

I think the proposition that the NFL is changing and Bruce is a forward thinker is bullshit. As soon as we've got a solidified defense and Bruce's contract is over, I'm ready to go back to power running. Come to think of it, I'm ready for that now, but not at the expense of ruffling feathers before we're ready to take off.

Now as far as specific concerns, I share all of the one's listed, and would like to expand on several points.

The thing about not letting Ben get sacked so much is interesting. I'm not sure that our O-line coach was the problem. Heads had to roll somewhere, but I'm with the author of the post in assigning the blame more to the guy calling the plays and giving Ben his orders, than to the linemen. Granted, they're bad. But remember how excited we all were when Kemoeatu learned to pull-block this year? Or when Max Starks completely neutralized Jared Allen? Or how about that time when Willie Colon paid enough attention to pick up Miami's DT who had pancaked Hartwig? Yeah, they're really bad players, but I thought I saw some actual development. When they had terrible games, more often than not, it struck me that the playcalling was setting them up for failure.

Look at this:

1st Down- 14/198
2nd Down- 13/171
3rd Down- 23/132

The first number is the times Ben was sacked, and the second number is how many times he got off a pass on that down. All this shows is that a defense stands a better shot at Ben when they know what's coming. Therefore, in a 3rd down situation where picking up the yards via running is a reasonable option, it's batshit insane to take that option off the table. I'm not saying we should run the ball every time like the other author is; but running MUST be a threat. The defense must not be allowed to sell out on the pass rush, which is what happened in the Cleveland game when Ben kept lining up in the shotgun on 3rd and manageable.

Now let's talk about that Cleveland game. The other blogger brings up the point that Bruce needs to respect the weather conditions and make smart game plans accordingly. That's true, but ultimately I hang that on Tomlin. I love the guy to death, but for him to approve of that pass happy game plan on the -16 degree windchill night was the worst coaching he's done to date. Yes, Bruce needs to run more when we're playing the elements; but Tomlin needs to be the smarter man and take over when that's not happening.

The Time of Possession thing is pretty big. It's the one aspect of Bruce's influence that reaches the defense, and in that sense, retaining him does place a burden on the reboot effort. However, the case isn't clear cut. Yes, running the ball eats up more clock. But, the other way to win TOP is for the defense to do their part in getting off the field. Bruce Arians was the OC in 2008 when we were eating up the clock; and he was here this year when we weren't. The difference was largely due to the D allowing 3rd and 4th down conversions, and that's an Aaron Smith and Troy Polamalu thing. Should BA be doing his part to make things easier on a fragile and aging defense? Yes, of course. Will he? Probably not.

Anything to do about it? Not really.

Just blog.

Free Agents

2010-01-05T16:27:00.000-08:00

LB Patrick Bailey (RFA) -- Special team stud; probably tender a low offer, which no other team will trade a draft pick to match.
QB Charlie Batch (UFA) -- Could he just take Ken Anderson's job, and Ben take Bruce Arians'?
S Tyrone Carter (UFA) -- Slow, 34 year old backup safety; would have to come pretty eFfing cheap to stay with us.
S Ryan Clark (UFA) -- Slow, hardhitting, 31 year old starting safety who showed an inability to contain deep pass plays without Polamalu on the field. I like him, but he'd have to be willing to be paid by the hour. Otherwise we're just going to have to swallow some lumps and field rookies/cheap-scrubs in the secondary.
OL Willie Colon (RFA) -- Yes, we're going to make an offer, and no, it can't possibly be low enough that another team will be willing to match it and risk trading a 7th round draft pick for Willie Colon.
FB Carey Davis (RFA) -- I love this guy. Am I the only one? Yes. Expect him to get low-balled or nothing, and then expect us to re-sign him next year when Mewelde Moore goes on the IR.
DE Nick Eason (UFA) -- Nick Eason will be 30 years old and coming into his prime as a journeyman backup. I don't care what happens here, except for the fact that we're running low on linemen.
CB William Gay (RFA) -- I'm telling you, he's going to get better. If nothing else, it makes sense to sign him to one of those one year, restricted free agent deals, and if he doesn't pan out, then he's gone.
NT Casey Hampton (UFA) -- This is the big one. Big Snack played very well on both first and second down this year. That's not a reason to give a 33 year old who weighs 350 lbs a multi-year, multi-million dollar extension. If there was a way to pro-rate his contract, I'd do it. He's still got 12-20 good games left in him, but whoever picks him up will be paying for at least 40.
DE Travis Kirschke (UFA) -- At age 36, he's a tough sell for his agent.
CB Anthony Madison (RFA) -- This time we may want to keep Madison (btw, remember losing at least one game because of bad special teams? I wonder if we'd be playing next week had Madison been on the unit all season long).
RB Willie Parker (UFA) -- If you haven't read a story about what a class act Willie's been this season, go do yourself a favor and buy a paper. He's really taken on the role as sideline mentor, even though it was crazy that he was being limited to so few touches. Best of luck, Willie.
K Jeff Reed (UFA) -- Sigh.
P Daniel Sepulveda (RFA) -- Signed.
TE Matt Spaeth (RFA) -- Why not tender an offer.
OL Darnell Stapleton (RFA) -- How many of this guy do we have at this point? The only case Darnell Stapleton could make for himself would be if he can still cover the center position as a backup. Otherwise, it seems a little redundant to have four mediocre RGs.
CB Deshea Townsend (UFA) -- We are either going to have a very mediocre, old secondary, or a very young, question-mark filled secondary.
LB Rocky Boiman (UFA) -- The heart and soul of the 2009 '3rd place finish in the AFC North' Pittsburgh Steelers. Thought you were upset when we gave Joey Porter his walking papers? You're going to cut yourself when you find out Rocky's gone.

In summary: our offense is going to be left almost entirely intact. The defense could get a lot shakier.

This is what I was saying last year when I kept using the phrase: borrowed time. It's about to catch up with us.

Pittsburghcentric Playoff Scenarios

2009-12-27T17:10:00.000-08:00

There are six games that matter next week, regarding the AFC playoff picture.

Jacksonville* @ Cleveland
Kansas City @ Denver*
Baltimore* @ Oakland
Pittsburgh* @ Miami*
Cincinnati @ NY Jets*
New England @ Houston*

*Seven of those teams are still vying for the wildcard. Play with this thing. You'll have more fun with it than reading all the scenarios here. That said, here are some combos:

-Pittsburgh & Houston - Everyone loses but those two teams, regardless of Jacksonville.
-Pittsburgh & Jacksonville - Everyone loses but those two teams.
-Pittsburgh & Baltimore - New York and Houston lose, Pittsburgh and Baltimore win, regardless of Denver and Jacksonville.
-Pittsburgh & Denver - Everyone loses but Pittsburgh, regardless of Denver; or everyone loses but Pittsburgh and Denver, regardless of Jacksonville.
-Pittsburgh & New York - Houston, Baltimore lose, Pittsburgh and NY win, regardless everyone else.

So. The common thread is Houston. Them losing is important, as 4 out of 5 scenarios depend on it. Jacksonville and Miami are both up to their knees in bad odds, and thus neither should have much effect on us (unless of course one of them happens to be our opponent on Sunday).

I'd say rooting for either the Houston/Baltimore or Houston/New York loss combos are our best bets, but please, play around with the scenario generator-- see if you can find something more reasonable.

As for which combo is more likely...

Houston is up against New England, who clinched their division today. If recent history tells us anything, it's that Belichick is willing to play Brady even after clinching (and I'm not just talking about the 16-0 season). That's kind of a moot point, as we need the Texans to lose in both scenarios.

New York plays Cincinnati, and I don't see any reason for Marvin Lewis to play Carson Palmer. A team never looks to lose, but the Bengals aren't going to be shedding any tears should we not make the playoffs because their backups got beat by the Jets.

Baltimore takes on Oakland. Oakland, who beat the Eagles, Bengals, Steelers, Chiefs and Broncos. Oakland, who lost to the Chargers, Texans, Giants, Jets, Cowboys, REDSKINS, BROWNS, Chiefs and Broncos. This is a team that gets absolutely blown out of the water in terms of total yardage, yet manages to win games. This is a team with no offensive identity (they're now on their third QB of the year; our old friend, Charlie Frye) and no ability to stop the run. Baltimore has made their bones this year by beating down shit teams, and not taking these games for granted. But. Stranger things have happened?

This is VAGUELY neat

2009-12-26T12:02:00.000-08:00

It's possible that Green Bay and Arizona would end up the 5th and 4th seeds, respectively, in the NFC playoff picture. This would mean they'd play back to back weeks against each other, both in Phoenix (one being week 17 of the regular season, and the other being the wild card game). The Elias Sports Bureau won't give me the facts on the last time this happened until we're closer to the event. I would assume it's been a while.

Extreme Logic

2009-12-22T22:12:00.000-08:00

Yeah, yeah Mike Tomlin hates his defense. What's worth looking at is this quote:

“My 8-year-old asked me what I was thinking. Other than that, I make no apologies,” Tomlin said. “In the latter part of the fourth quarter, I felt that both offenses were capable of moving the football. Making that decision to kick the onside kick started first and foremost with the belief we could get the football legally. We weren’t able to do that. Even if we weren’t able to do that with four minutes left, if we were not able to stop them, I felt we’d have significant time to navigate down the field.”

He was entirely right, except that I dare speculate that while our offense could "move the football" and "navigate down the field," there's the very real possibility that had we legally recovered the kick, we wouldn't have been able to convert a TD in the redzone-- simply because we didn't have to. There's the very real possibility that we would have left 4 points and time on the scoreboard, which, as we've found out earlier this year, isn't enough.

So.

Logically.

This is a case of let-em-score-too-early.

My dad consistently pounds the idea into my head that you never, ever intentionally let the other team score. He also believes in the "some points are better than no points" maxim, always. I guess I'm a relativist on these things, and really judge it by the situation. In some scenarios, it's simply worth it to risk 3 for the gain of 4. And sometimes, when you have a guy named Ben Roethlisberger + five explosive playmakers, you realize that if your D is a crap shoot, you may as well do everything possible to ensure your O gets the last 2 minutes; even if that means allowing your opponent to take a striking-distance lead.

So.

I completely agree with Tomlin placing his faith in #7, but I think his mistake was allowing for the possibility that Ike may have recovered the ball legally. *Maybe* it was all an act, and Ike was intentionally muffing the legal recovery. But had I been big Mike, I would have been tempted to have Reed shank the ball out of bounds, allowing the Packers a super short field, and myself the last possession with zero mystery involved in my intentions.

Injury

2009-12-21T13:35:00.001-08:00

Greg Warren is out for the season with a torn knee ligament.

Call up this guy?

Things I'm Not "Right" About

2009-12-19T21:28:00.000-08:00

I admit it, I thought the Saints could do it.

I was helping my dad* put away his groceries this morning, and we were talking about the Saints/Colts, and he said he didn't think both teams would do it, and that the Saints would be his pick to falter first. However, he thought they'd plow Dallas, and while I felt like the 'Boys might be the spoiler, I agreed in so much that it'd be great to watch them choke down yet another December.

*This is one of those rare cases where My Old Man and I are both wrong. I don't know if you've found this to be true with you and Your Old Man, re: Hockey/Canada, but M.O.M. and I agree about 80% of the time, and are almost always correct in our assessments when we do; obviously, when we disagree one of us is right and the other wrong, and that happens at a near even split of cagey old-timer wisdom, and upstart, 'reads blogs' streets-smart. Anyway, he was right that the Saints wouldn't make it, and I wasn't wrong to not commit myself to saying it wouldn't be the Cowboys to beat 'em.

RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING!

How Moderate Cynicism Works

2009-12-17T22:35:00.000-08:00

Chris Henry's death will not help the Bengals.

I'm not saying that to be a prick or to be funny, I'm just saying it as someone who saw a lot of articles written about how the intangibles of Nick Adenhart's death would aid the Angels playoff run; it didn't.

It's great that Chris Henry was turning his life around and really trying to do everything possible to not get arrested anymore; it's a shame he was a Bengal; it's far, far more of a shame that he died at such a young age in such a senseless way. I think that's pretty much all there is to say about it, but brace yourself-- with the team in question being in the playoff hunt, there'll be a hell of a lot more to say about it by guys who get paid to do what I do for free..

The Colts' defense

2009-12-13T21:46:00.000-08:00

Take note: Indy may have the best defense in the league this year. And considering that they also have one of the most potent offenses in the AFC, behind only New England (a team that runs up the score) and the Chargers (a team that simply doesn't have a running game or a defense), we could be looking at the best Colts' team since their 14-2 run in 2005 (of course, it was the somewhat defense deficient Colts' team that took home the Lombardi trophy a year later, so just remember: regular season rankings don't count for shit in January).

I've talked about the Indianapolis defensive philosophy before, but I'll talk about it again here as a refresher.

They run a 4-3, but a very unique one. The guiding principle is "speed, not size," and it was the brainchild of Chuck Noll and his defensive coordinator, Tony Dungy.

Basically, instead of running a traditional 4-3, where you have 4 fatties up front, 3 linebackers in the middle, and 4 defensive backs in the secondary, the Colts' system treats the middle linebacker like a third safety and the DEs as LBs. So, they're running a 2-4 nickel or a 4-3 base at any given time, and it's up to their opponent to figure out which it is.

Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney are their two DEs. Mathis is 6'2", 235 lbs; an absolute dwarf for his position, but lightning fast. Freeney is 6'1", 268 lbs; pure muscle and certainly a power rusher, but he also happens to be lightning fast. The two of them have recorded more sacks than any pair of teammates in the past 4 years. They're very, very effective at getting to the quarterback from the edge.

And here's the thing about the Colts' defense: it very much relies on having the lead. If it was trailing by a bunch, it would have to strain an unreasonable amount to make a stop (and it has done that, twice this year). When Indy has the lead, though, and the opposing QB sees Peyton Manning leaving him in the dust, he gets one-dimensional. He starts thinking pass every time, and when that happens Mathis and Freeney spread outside those offensive tackles, and speed rush off the edges.

Meanwhile, the middle linebacker no longer has to devote himself to covering the run. Instead, he sneaks backwards and covers the middle third of the deep zone, while the two safeties split and cover the corner thirds. This allows for the OLBs and CBs to play tighter on their men, knowing that the deep part of the field is covered three times over, instead of just twice.

Anyway. It's easy to understand why they would be underrated, what with playing on the same team as Peyton Manning, but the Colts' defensive unit is really going above and beyond everyone else this year, and Indy's playoff run will live or die with the D's performance.

There is no immitation for a good defensive back

2009-12-13T21:23:00.000-08:00

Pittsburgh - Polamalu = shit.

Philadelphia - Dawkins = 370 passing yards to the Giants tonight.

Denver + Dawkins = 2nd best pass defense in NFL in 2009 (26th in 2008)

Minnesota - Sharper = stinks against the pass

New Orleans + Sharper = undefeated.

=============

I kind of went off on a Yahoo! Sports article about how great safeties are in our current age, but like, it is true: there have been some sea-changes in the NFL's balance of power this year, and the places to look for answers tend to be secondaries.

New England is still the Tom Brady / Randy Moss / Wes Welker show, but it seems like every week now, they're having to squeak by, not knowing if their safeties have shown up to play.

And as sighted above, both the Broncos and Saints were offensive powerhouses last year with no defense; and now? Both have upgraded their secondaries, and because of it are able to strangle the life out of opponents.

This entry was prompted mostly by tonight's SNF. Eagles at Giants. Both teams gained just a sickening number of yards. Both teams destroyed nonsense coverage, and exposed the other team's secondary as poor at best. The Eagles are playing an ex-Brown in the place of Brian Dawkins (their franchise's Troy Polamalu), while the Giants had to move a cornerback, Aaron Ross to the safety position for tonight's game. This led to just a total shitshow of breakaway points.

So. In conclusion. Defensive backs are kind of important.

I'd like to dub them "America's Family"

2009-12-11T19:39:00.001-08:00

Everyone in James Harrison's family is psychotic.

Police say it’s not clear why the party turned violent

Yeah, it's a hard one to figure.

There have been worse games we've lost...

2009-12-10T21:27:00.000-08:00

But not many.

The game against Oakland in 2006 was worse than this. Then there was one against the Ravens later that year that got really ugly. Our losses to KC and Oakland this year are up there, but probably not as bad as tonight's.

Losing to the Pats in 2004 sucked, just because it looked like they had robbed the Bus of a championship.

The game we played against the Eagles last year, that was a bullshit game.

Those are the ugly ones that come to my mind since becoming a Steelers' fan. Tonight is going to be up there.

It's really very simple how it happened: we lost the battle at the line of scrimmage. Our front seven failed to stop the run, and our offensive game plan failed to dial up the run.

I get it, Mendenhall wasn't lighting the world on fire with his 3.3 y/c. BUT HE ONLY GOT 16 TOUCHES!!!!!! WHAT DON'T YOU GET, ARIANS!?!?!?!?!? KEEP GIVING HIM THE BALL!!!!!

Our first series of the night:

1st-10, PIT15 12:22 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, PIT20 11:42 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 4 yard gain
3rd-1, PIT24 10:58 B. Roethlisberger sacked by C. Williams
4th-10, PIT15 10:27 D. Sepulveda punt.

!!!!!

Second series of the night:

1st-10, PIT6 7:08 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, PIT11 6:29 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 2 yard gain
3rd-3, PIT13 5:45 B. Roethlisberger sacked by H. Poteat
4th-13, PIT3 5:01 D. Sepulveda punt.

Starting to see a pattern here????

I don't know if I've talked about this before, but here's how a defensive line works: on first and second down, a 3-4 defense will have their NT on the field, and the DEs will be angling themselves at the interior of the offensive line. This is to prevent running lanes from forming. On 3rd down, or a passing down, the NT comes off the field, and the DEs angle themselves outside the offensive tackles, because they know the QB will be dropping back to pass and they'd like to try getting by his periphery with their speed, instead of bullrushing in his line of sight. Anyway, when you take the running threat off the field on 3rd down, you're essentially giving the defense a free pass to pull the NT and angle everyone to blitz from the edge. When the running threat is on the field for third down, it means the defense can't sell out and blitz the QB. Thus the QB gets sacked less when a RB gets into a defensive's head.

The proof is in the pudding: Ben got sacked EIGHT times, Quinn got sacked once. This is because our D-line was busy catching their breath, while the Browns' defense was seeing every one of our plays telegraphed.

A couple more:

1st-10, PIT28 7:01 B. Roethlisberger incomplete pass to the left
2nd-10, PIT28 6:53 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
3rd-7, PIT31 6:04 B. Roethlisberger sacked by D. Bowens
4th-18, PIT20 5:30 D. Sepulveda punt. J. Cribbs returned punt for 6 yards

1st-10, PIT7 11:52 R. Mendenhall rushed to the left for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, PIT10 11:15 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 2 yard gain
3rd-5, PIT12 10:30 B. Roethlisberger incomplete pass to the right
4th-5, PIT12 10:16 D. Sepulveda punt, no return

POUND. THE. FOOTBALL. !!!!!

I don't care if you go 3-and-out on three straight run plays. Doing that at least forces the other team to remain in the trenches and wonder how far you're willing to go with the physical challenge. Tonight Cleveland stayed in the trenches on offense, and just kept pounding the ball. They kept Casey Hampton on the field for more downs than he's used to, and it worked.

I'd like to congratulate the Browns and have it not be conditional, but the truth is, we did everything possible to lose, and they only did enough to barely win. Knowing this city, I know they'll take it. But don't be fooled: we didn't get beat by some sleeping giant defense (I have to say this because the stats are an eye-popping 8 sacks, 6 points, 216 yards), we simply stunk. We simply played out the dumbest gameplan possible, and there's no reason to think any team could have lost to us tonight.

Final thought: it was all too much fun sitting out in the subzero cold for this; win or lose, I love these guys.

Tonight

2009-12-10T10:21:00.000-08:00

I am going to freeze my face off tonight. After this I will no longer be able to use my face. It will be damaged beyond fixing.

This I don't mind.

But if I don't get to see 35+ running plays out of our offense, swear to fucking Jesus, I am going down onto the field and body slamming Bruce Arians.

The Browns were the 29th worst team against the run before they lost Shaun Rogers for the season. Now they're unreasonably bad. Ward is out. There are going to be ridiculous gusts of wind throughout. There is NO reason not to run run run. It's the motherfucking Browns!!! RUN ON THEM!

"Tomlin fires team" -A.P.

2009-12-07T23:30:00.000-08:00

Check this out.

Tomlin’s response to the Super Bowl champions’ latest improbable loss and the franchise’s longest losing streak since a five-game slide in 2003? He’s taking out an eraser and wiping away names.

You hear that, James Harrison? You're about to get erased!

Rookie cornerback Joe Burnett is expected to start for the oft-beaten William Gay, who sustained a concussion late in the Steelers’ can-you-believe-it 27-24 loss to the Raiders on Sunday. Gay might not play in Cleveland.

Another rookie cornerback, Keenan Lewis, plus defensive end Ziggy Hood and wide receiver Mike Wallace, also might earn elevated status for the Browns (1-11). Wallace is expected to start if Hines Ward (hamstring) can’t go, which seems likely given the short week.

These are not significant changes. Burnett or Lewis are behind Taylor and Gay. Likewise for Wallace in regards to Ward and Holmes. If one of our starters goes out, we bring in fresh blood. That's called a depth chart. And asking Nick Eason and Travis Kirschke--career journeymen backups-- to make way for our first round pick, that isn't exactly a shakeup.

“Nothing stays the same in this game,” Tomlin said. “Players are ascending, players are descending. People catch up with schemes, schemes evolve. Playing and coaching, this thing is ever-changing.”

That's entirely fine. I trust Tomlin will make the necessary adjustments. He's not erasing the team.

I bring this to your attention as something of a silver lining: the Steelers are playing terribly pathetic ball, but at least we don't have the problem of determining whether our first round draft pick QB is better than Kerry Collins, Brad Gradkowski, Derek Anderson or Daunte Culpepper. We don't have to guess as to whether we could be doing better than Ward, Holmes, Mendenhall, Miller, Harrison, Farrior, Woodley, Keisel, Hampton, Sepulveda, Wallace, etc.

There are few teams that have as few question marks as we do.

Obviously, there have been some red flags in the secondary as of late. We need to experiment with personnel, but that's not the same thing as having to decide between Hank Poteat or a wide receiver to play nickelback (that's what the Browns go through every game).

I think we may see more Keyaron Fox. Farrior is so clutch in bringing that D together... or at least that's the rap on him. The D hasn't been coming together, and having our oldest player on the field for 4 quarters doesn't serve any advantage then. I'm not saying that he'll be the one cut down in playing time, but I wouldn't be surprised if we went to a MLB rotation like we did last year, with Timmons and Foote platooning, and thus moving Potsie around to different positions.

I wonder if Townsend will play any safety. Wouldn't be a huge surprise.

I spent about 2 hours thinking about this on the drive home the other day: I haven't given up on Limas Sweed. He was too promising in college and in the preseason. While we were winning and had 4 quality receivers in front of him, there was no reason to play him. But now that shit is mayhem, I think he may get one last trial by fire before offseason roster moves (we'd still have rights to him for another two years at very cheap, should we hold onto his contract).

Playoff predictions

2009-12-07T18:11:00.000-08:00

I hate doing predictions, but here's my sense of things for the divisional winners:

New England
Cincinnati
Indianapolis*
San Diego

Philadelphia
Minnesota
New Orleans*
Arizona

Nothing too crazy here; in fact, two of those teams* have already clinched playoff berths.

For the NFC wild cards, I see Green Bay and probably New York locking things up. The Cowboys are a better team than the Giants, but their two losses to them make it entirely possible for things to get crazy. We'll learn a lot after tonight's game, but if Green Bay loses to Baltimore, it's possible that their remaining schedule makes them the odd man out, and both the Giants and 'boys make it.

Baltimore is probably my dark horse pick to blow through the end of their season and go deep into the playoffs. I don't really have the analysis to back that prediction, but I feel like I may as well call a shot. They're absolutely the best team to not be in the current playoff cut, and I think they've got the talent to go on a rampage of upsets in a small sample size.

Jacksonville and Denver have the inside tracks to the AFC wild card seeds. Denver will probably be able to hang on, Jacksonville probably not. The Broncos are a decent team with a 2-2 schedule coming. The Jaguars are over-performing and have to play the Dolphins, Pats and Colts before getting to the Browns.

Jets, Dolphins, Ravens and Steelers are where the final seed is coming from. A lot of similar opponents and crossing schedules, so we should be able to eliminate at least two of those teams from the discussion very soon. I'm not throwing in the Terrible Towel when I say this, but my guess is the Ravens will emerge from the fray, and Denver will come perilously close to imploding when it counts.

What happened yesterday: the defense

2009-12-07T16:42:00.000-08:00

Real quickly, here's the breakdown:

Our defense allowed 21 points to the Oakland Raiders in one quarter of play.

Those points came on three drives of 57 yards, 84 yards and 88 yards. These were not short fields the defense was inheriting.

From the first quarter on, the D-line was getting beat. Casey and Keisel were penetrating the line, but then getting knocked off their positions. When a D-line gets moved laterally like they were, it's very hard for linebackers to stay in their run gaps. When that happens, two adjustments need to be made: the LBs have to step back from their passrushing positions on the edge, and the safeties have to come in to assist in the run stopping.

At one point during the game, the Raiders busted through our line for several rushing yards and a first down; you turned to me and asked if that should concern you as much as it did; I said: yes. It was absolutely the case of our front seven getting knocked out of their run gaps. Staying in our run gaps is the alpha and the omega of our defensive gameplan. It is how we set everything up to beat the Vikings and the Broncos. It didn't happen all day yesterday.

The Raiders play calling included a lot of tosses and pitches on run plays. These are the kind of run plays that Troy explodes in the backfield, hitting the ball carrier and allowing the LBs to flow to him. We didn't have Troy, and we didn't win at the line, so the LBs were isolated on these assignments. The truth about our linebackers: outside of Timmons, they're not terribly fast. Harrison has good quickness on the pass rush, but you saw his 100 yard dash. Woodley and Farrior rely entirely on positioning to get to the play. When these guys are isolated and have to initiate the play, they're not at their best.

Anyway, Gradkowski really didn't do anything on pass plays except chuck the ball as far as he could. Considering that he was terribly inaccurate for 3 quarters of play, and that his WRs were dropping the balls that came to them, it was fair that we would bring the safeties into the box to stop the run.

By the 4th quarter, we normally pull linemen and replace them with DBs, but the Raiders continued to sample their entire playbook, running the ball well on the first drive of the quarter. So we continued to keep the nose tackle on the field. This meant cover 0 and cover 1. That's the coverage you saw when Ike got burnt.

I'm watching MNF and they just showed Ray Lewis' pre-game pep talk to his defense. He just had them break their huddle on "1,2,3 PHYSICAL!" I hate him so much, but he's got exactly the right idea.

Anyway, I don't blame LeBeau. He was making the adjustments he needed to without completely compromising himself. The culprit was execution by the players.

Let me just say, I hate it when people say "Lack of execution is why we lost! Had we only executed well we would have been better!" Yeah, no shit. Tautology 101. But anyway, I think it's fair to talk execution if we're specific, and the specific areas of performance that we didn't execute were as follow:
-controlling the line of scrimmage
-stopping the run with the front 7
-swatting or intercepting balls when we had the coverage

Obviously it was a huge blunder on Ike's part when he allowed a 342 yard touchdown pass, but no more so than when we had double or triple coverage on a guy and let him catch the ball. No more than when Joe Burnett dropped a ball that hit him in the numbers. No more so when William Gay fell down every time the ball was in his zone. Ike was bad, but he was in single coverage because our front seven weren't getting the job done. The other guys don't have any excuse.

As for Ryan Mundy-- he's not very good. He's okay, if you hide him in the midst of several very good players, or on a practice squad. He got burnt twice, once in the endzone and once by a flag. The flag is going to get thrown in Gary Bettman's NFL whether we like it or not. It really was the result of the previous play, in which Mundy slammed into his own teammate with his helmet. When the officials saw him leading with his helmet two plays in a row, it was important to them that this guy get his wings clipped because he was endangering 21 other guys. As for his poor coverage in the endzone, it was attributed to a miscommunication. That's bullshit, and a recipe for missing the playoffs.

If we're going to win in Cleveland, we're going to have to shut off the run in the first half and with the front 3. If the Browns are keeping Casey Hampton on the field in the 4th, it'll be a much closer game than we want to play.

What happened today

2009-12-06T18:23:00.002-08:00

For the 5th time this season, we lost by a field goal after blowing a 4th quarter lead. We have only played 12 games. If we want to be generous and include the second Cinci loss in this category (in that one, we blew a THIRD quarter lead, and lost by TWO field goals) then we're 50/50: win, or bullshit loss that looked like a win.

It's easy to say those losses "should have been" wins, but I'm not sure that's true. The truth is, when you play it close, there is only "could have been"-- for both teams. Both teams "could have" lost, both teams "could have" won. Last year we went 5-1 in games where the margin of victory was 5 points or less. This year we're 1-7. It could have been that this didn't happen and that this did. That's the funny thing about tight games in any sport: anything could happen, and over a large enough sample size, everything does happen in about even proportions.

I'm not going to say this is pure luck, and that somehow we're just recessing to the mean. There's also skill involved in a huge way. Last year's D wasn't simply lucky: it was lucky and hella talented on just an epic magnitude. This year's D is unlucky and fielding less talent.

Finally, I'd say there's a sum-of-the-parts effect at work, where the talent and luck, or lack thereof, align and amplify a team's fate. We saw this with the Titans when they were down on their luck: mostly the same roster as the one that went 13-3. Everything about last year's team just clicked and complimented and built on itself, just as everything about this year's team contributed to the total implosion.

Ugh... enough theorizing. Let's just leave it at this: our roster hasn't been completely replaced by incompetent impostors; these are the same guys, and they are still capable of regaining their previous form (even if it may be too late to matter).

Okay, so what went wrong today:
1. Bad offensive play calling
2. Bad defensive execution

Those were the killers.

Special teams didn't cause me stress. I've got plenty to say about them, but not right off the bat. First we need to talk about Bruce Arians and the 11 guys on defense. (I'm still very angry, so everything that follows may not be entirely cohesive.)

BRUCE ARIANS IS A DUMB MOTHERFUCKING DIPSHIT PUS BRAIN BULLSHIT BUTTMUNCH FART HEAD COCKSUCKER IDIOT.

I remember being irritated with him when he first took over in 2007. I remember being irritated with him at the end of last year, and being very nervous going into the playoffs that he'd fuck things up. Turns out he did very well for himself in that run. He also behaved fairly well for the first half of this season, but ...today. Today was a new land speed record for stupid, as measured in miles per hour.

Let's review: Ben had been out because of a head injury. The Raiders have the worst run defense in the league. Mendenhall has been on a tear, where he's been giving you a decent (bordering on STELLAR) 5.0 y/c this season. He just came off a game in which he stuck it to the Baltimore run defense, and completely carried an inexperienced, backup QB on his shoulders.

Now, back to Arians: I don't mind if he wants Ben to get in his throws; I wouldn't even mind if he had Ben set up the run with the pass. What bothers me is how many times Ben was asked to go 5-wide, empty set. WHAT THE FUCK????? Those huge passes to Tone and Ward... those came out of sets where Ben had a check down coming out of the backfield. I mean seriously... WHAT THE FUCK????? We don't even have 5 guys worth lining up as receivers!!! After Ward, Holmes, Wallace, and Miller, you have Spaeth, Sweed, and Mendenhall/Moore. Spaeth is a total non-factor when he's the 5th target behind those other 4 guys. Sweed can't catch. Mendenhall/Moore are fine receiving backs, but there's absolutely no advantage to putting them on the line of scrimmage and telegraphing the pass!

Empty backfield was bullshit #1. Bullshit #2 was the lack of running when running was the correct thing to do. Running was the correct thing to do all day, on every down.

The scouting report on the Raiders is that they lead in tackles for losses and also allowing the most rushing yards. It's either feast or famine with them. If they stop you, just run at them again.

Let's look at the record on designed runs:

2nd-5, OAK14 14:26 R. Mendenhall rushed to the left for 1 yard loss
1st-10, PIT28 8:30 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, PIT31 7:52 R. Mendenhall rushed up the middle for 4 yard loss
2nd-4, PIT26 4:10 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 60 yard gain
1st-10, OAK14 3:19 R. Mendenhall rushed up the middle for 4 yard gain
2nd-6, OAK10 2:38 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 5 yard gain
3rd-1, OAK5 1:56 R. Mendenhall rushed up the middle for no gain
4th-1, OAK5 1:15 B. Roethlisberger rushed up the middle for no gain
1st-10, PIT26 8:11 W. Parker rushed to the right for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, PIT31 7:36 W. Parker rushed to the left for 9 yard gain.
1st-10, PIT45 7:15 W. Parker rushed to the left for 1 yard gain
1st-10, OAK29 1:53 M. Moore rushed to the right for 7 yard gain
1st-10, PIT20 11:07 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, PIT23 10:27 R. Mendenhall rushed up the middle for 6 yard gain
3rd-1, PIT29 9:51 R. Mendenhall rushed up the middle for 4 yard gain
1st-10, PIT33 9:13 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, PIT36 8:34 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for no gain
2nd-3, PIT49 4:51 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 2 yard gain
3rd-1, OAK49 4:05 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 2 yard gain
2nd-5, OAK42 2:48 R. Mendenhall rushed to the left for 1 yard loss
1st-10, OAK29 1:44 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, OAK27 1:01 R. Mendenhall rushed to the left for 2 yard gain
1st-3, OAK3 7:13 R. Mendenhall rushed to the left for 3 yard touchdown.
1st-10, PIT47 4:46 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 8 yard gain
1st-10, OAK21 3:25 R. Mendenhall rushed to the right for 2 yard gain

Yes, that 60 yarder helped the average. No denying it. But, as I already said, the beauty of the Oakland Raiders is that they're good for allowing more than just one big play, if you give them enough chances.

7 times where we had 4 or less yards to go; we went 4 for 7 converting on those runs. I'm starting to hate this argument that Mendenhall "can't gain the tough, short yards when they're needed." It's made by people who call in to radio shows; the same people who put a lot of stock into shit stats like RBI and game winning goals. The bottom line is this: Mendenhall is legit in any situation. Yes, he got stuffed on 3rd and 1, after running for 4 and 5 yards on the previous two plays. On 4th and 1 you either have to give him the ball again, OR kick the field goal. I like risking the 3 points for the chance to have 7; I don't like risking the 3 points and my franchise QB's skull for the chance to have 7, especially when my running back is averaging 3 y/c on the previous 3 plays.

On another 3rd and 1, Mendenhall gained 4 yards. On a 2nd and 3, he gained 2 yards, followed by a 3rd and 1 where he gained 2 yards. On 1st and goal from the 3 yard line, he rushed for a TD on his first try. There is simply no truth to the idea that he can't bust it up the gut when the chains need to be moved. If it seems like that's true, it's because our play calling consistently tends to shy away from pounding the football in short yardage situations.

I'll never understand our redzone trip at the end of the second quarter, where we get to the Oakland 22-yard line with 1:19 left, 3 timeouts, and it's 2nd and 3. 22 yards to the goal. 1:19 left. Timeouts coming out of our ears. 3 yards to move the chains. What do we do? Pass for 6 yards to Wallace, setting up at the 16 with 0:59 left. Okay. 16 yards to the goal. Great. One minute left. Our running back is averaging like 8 yards a carry. We can stop the clock. We can either get a big gain and shave some seconds off the clock to precisely where we want it, or we can get stuffed, stop the clock and pass the ball another 2 or 3 times. The beauty of running in this situation is that it keeps the defense honest. Naturally, we go 5-wide, and they put every defensive back on their team in the endzone, where they pick Ben off. Luckily we still had our timeouts, so we were able to force them to punt so we could then run the clock down with a knee.

!!!

Let me make this disclaimer: second-guessing the play calling is always much easier than actually calling the plays. But it absolutely feels like we got away from the basics this week, we got away from smash-mouth, running football, even after it looked so good in Baltimore.

Do I think the passing game was excellent? Yes, kind of. Excellent results, but that had much more to do with the Raiders, and not as much to do with the play calling. The lack of Heath (1 catch), and that 145 yards of Ben's 278 came on only 4 plays doesn't scream mastery. If that was a legitimate thing, a thing his coach was calling and Ben was executing at will, then they'd do what Peyton Manning and his crew do: score a lot more points than the other team ever could hope to score. Instead, it felt like a fluke series or two. It felt like this was a team that was flat, and didn't have an identity, and was just relying on latent ability to put up points.

I think it speaks to that lack of offensive identity when we lose in time of possession to the Oakland Raiders. Yes, the passing was fine, yes the running was fine... but we struggled all day to put together a dominating series.

I'm not sure that firing Bruce Arians is the key. It may be. But offensive coordinators in general are going to irk us Pittsburghers. We're neurotically committed to a style of football that was successful for about 25 years, and is now very antiquated. If we got our way, the leading rusher would be the fullback, and we'd hide two of the greatest WRs ever in the shadows of a power run game.

The bottom line on Bruce, as far as I'm concerned: I like his playbook, I like some of his theories on offense, and I don't think he's hurt any of his players development (and in fact, I'd say he's improved some from where they were under Cowher/Whisenhunt); however, he's consistently failed to establish an identity for this offense in the last three regular seasons. (I guess they had an identity last regular season, which was as damsel in distress, constantly requiring the D to do butt-crazy things to bail out the offense.)

What I like about Arians' is his interest in loading up multi-dimensional options for Ben. Mendenhall is a very west-coast style player, in that he can receive, and he can rack up huge yards in a single-back set. Lining up Heath and Holmes and Ward in the bunch, or bringing in Wallace for 3-wide formations, I like that, too, because Ben is a good enough passer to juggle 4 check-downs at a time. It also means that Mendenhall has the advantage of rushing against a defense that is preoccupied with receiving threats. I like this "spread 'em out" philosophy with our personnel. The difference between this group of skill players and the Colts or Pats, isn't what they can do, but how they do it. There still seems to be this tentative vibe with everything our offense does. Sometimes we run no-huddle because we need to change pace, or sometimes we don't run no-huddle because we think maybe we need to go back to something else because maybe no-huddle wasn't exactly working. Sometimes we do a 2 play, 80 yard passing drive for a TD because we want points. Sometimes we go three-and-out in a random part of the game, but not before wasting a timeout because we fucked up on the play clock.

If you've ever seen the Colts play, you understand what I'm getting at. Indianapolis runs their offense with military-like precision. Every route is run crisply, so that Manning doesn't even have to look, he can just time out where his guys will be. Every play is rehearsed and drilled and then scripted, so that the players can run up to the line of scrimmage and know exactly what's going to happen without having to talk about it. The Colts have an incredibly defined identity, but past that, I don't think they have any more talent than us. Nor do I think they have a better playbook than us. Just one that everyone on the team has read and knows by memory.

Bruce Arians is probably fine as a coach, and he's even good at scripting plays, but no one has really established a protocol for how our offense behaves, and him being the O-coordinator, that's where the blame ends up going.

See: the Chargers-Steelers divisional playoff game from last year; that was a brilliant example of methodical, deliberate, scripted playcalling. That's what we need to do every week.

========

I've said enough for now. Tomorrow we'll cover the defense and how much it betrayed our trust, once again.

2009-12-06T18:23:00.001-08:00

My dog smells terrible

2009-12-06T18:20:00.000-08:00

I still love him, but I wish he would go into another room.

It's the same way with the Pittsburgh Pirates; we often wish they would just go into another room. We don't ever expect to feel this way about our Steelers.

Blogging about them will be no small effort. We should probably start with this game, then an analysis of this season compared to previous ones, and finally, what the future holds beyond this season.

The Cardinals just ran the wildcat with their free safety taking the direct snap. Ugh... let's start with the first post.

Special Teams

2009-12-03T10:15:00.000-08:00

I don't really understand how special team coaching works, so I can't explain the technique or strategy, except to say that our guys are whiffing on tackles and committing their body position too soon.

From a personnel standpoint, we were at our strongest last year when rookies Patrick Bailey and Donovan Woods joined with veterans Anthony Madison and Keyaron Fox. We cut Madison in training camp, which some guy for the Trib said was going to undo everything. We also had Woods playing on the practice squad. Patrick Bailey (who had been our team rookie of the year in 2008) turned into a total non-factor, while Keyaron Fox found his duties split between special teams (where he was a captain) and our starting defensive unit when Timmons couldn't play.

The Madison thing may have come back to bite us. Maybe not.

He went on to play for the Browns special teams (which, to be fair, is a tough unit to make, considering they have, at any given time, 50 special team players on their roster). He was cut from Cleveland. The Browns also cut Cory Ivy (who, like Madison is listed as a CB, but is pretty much just good for kick coverage). Then the Colts gave Madison a try, eventually cutting him.

We signed Ivy last week. Nothing happened. We cut him. And just recently, re-signed Anthony Madison.

I have no idea if having him back will make the difference. I mean, if he's so valuable, you'd think he wouldn't have gotten cut three times this season. Then again, James Harrison got cut three times. It's a weird league.

I think the reason we're not seeing Keisel on special teams isn't that he can't play on the coverage team (he and Harrison were the fastest guys who couldn't be blocked when they were on the unit in 2005), but rather because we can't afford to risk a D-lineman. Right now big Brett is playing as well as ever before, and we pretty much need every snap at the line of scrimmage that he'll give us.

Wish I had more to tell you. Keep hoping we kick it out of bounds.

We can do better

2009-11-30T21:03:00.001-08:00

Saw this on Yahoo! Sports.

I was expecting it to be entirely hilarious and intelligent; it met me almost half-way. Here's my list of the top 10 biggest draft busts since 2000:

10. Courtney Brown 1st overall, 2000 - Cleveland

You may recognize this guy from the Yahoo! Sports list. They were right about him; he was a bust. Drafted 1st overall as a pass rusher, he played in 47 games for the Browns, recording a whopping 17 sacks. This was not a good start to the decade for Cleveland's new front office.

9. Gerard Warren 3rd overall, 2001 - Cleveland

What makes Gerard Warren so remarkable isn't simply his lack of physical ability, but also who the Browns could have drafted instead of him. 31 sacks as a DT in 128 games for Warren; 134 rushing TDs for LaDainian Tomlinson since being drafted 2 spots afterward. Don't like LT? Want to stay true to building a D-line? Fine. Richard Seymour's on the board. Or perhaps Casey Hampton? Marcus Stroud? Kris Jenkins? Shaun Rogers? Derrick Burgess? Aaron Schobel? Kyle Vanden Bosch? (That list of linemen is ordered by number of pro-bowl appearances; total this group has had 25 berths; Warren has yet to make it to Hawaii.)

8. William Green 16th overall, 2002 - Cleveland

This is one of my all time favorites. Passing on the likes of Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook, the Browns went with William Green as their 1st round running back selection. William Green -- a running back-- had a history of severe stomach pain. He was later stabbed in the back by his girlfriend after turning pro.

7. Ryan Pontriand 142nd overall, 2003 - Cleveland

This guy wasn't really a bust in the sense that he was a bad player taken high in the draft; he was more just a stupid pick. Allow me to explain: Ryan Pontbriand is a long snapper. He comes in only on punting and place kicking plays. Since 1982, only 12 coaches have been stupid enough to spend a draft pick on a long snapper. Pontbriand has the distinction of being drafted the highest. You can literally find any old guy moving a piece of furniture and conscript him to long snap the ball. You don't need to draft for the position.

I'll give him this, he has been named to two pro-bowls, which is two more than Gerard Warren, Courtney Brown or William Green combined.

6. Mario Williams 1st overall, 2006 - Houston

This is actually an anti-bust, and if anyone should make this list, it's the Texan fans who resented this guy being picked over Reggie Bush, Vince Young and Matt Leinart. Take one look at Williams and you'll understand why it's insane for anyone to leave him on the draft board. He's absolutely huge and lean and fast. I'm not sure I'd call Bush, Leinart or Young busts, but I'd say the people of Houston were morons for not being extremely excited to have a legitimate franchise lineman like this; I mean, he's no Gerard Warren.

5. Kellen Winslow Jr. 6th overall, 2004 - Cleveland

Back to the Rock'n'Roll city for more fun! Kellen Winslow Jr. is probably the stupidest guy the Browns have ever drafted, and that's saying something. Two games into his rookie season, Winslow went on the Injured Reserve list after breaking his leg. Then, prior to the 2005 season, he was hot-dogging in a parking lot on a motorcycle (something which happened to be specifically prohibited in his contract), when he hit a curb and was thrown off the bike. This resulted in another season ending injury, this time coming before the season had started. By 2006, Winslow was healthy again and finally on the field. He was pretty good as a receiver, pretty pathetic as a blocking TE, and an all around cancer in the locker room. The Browns were lucky to trade him for a second round draft pick this past off season.

Had it been me drafting in 2004, I probably would have gone with Chris Cooley in the 3rd round if I wanted a TE, or Ben Roethlisberger in the first round if I wanted to make an impact on my offense.

4. Fabien Washington 23rd overall, 2005 - Oakland

Can't make a draft bust list without throwing Al Davis to the wolves. In this case, we've got the prototypical Al Davis pick: the "HE'S FAST, HE MUST BE GOOD!" theory. Literally, that's the only reason the Raiders picked this cornerback, because he ran the best 40 at the scouting combine. Cornerback is such a nuanced position where a player needs to do far more things with skill than just pure ability. After several mediocre years in Oakland, Washington was eventually dealt for peanuts.

3. JaMarcus Russell 1st overall, 2007 - Oakland

(Wow, it's like the Raiders have become the new Browns.)

Everything that was said about this guy in the Yahoo! Sports article is true. He's just really bad at football.

2. Brady Quinn 22nd overall, 2007 - Cleveland

(Sorry, Oakland; Cleveland is here to stay!)

It really is hard to describe how bad Brady Quinn is. You need to see it to fully understand what a waste of roster space he is. The thing is, he's afraid to throw the ball more than 4 yards down the field; he's also afraid to hold onto the ball; he's also terrible when he throws long, and generally just closes his eyes and throws it as hard as he can for the sidelines 20 yards down field. All of this has the effect of half his throws being short incompletions bordering on grounding, or long bombs to his backup QB on the sideline, Derek Anderson.

The best part of this blunder is how many teams smartly avoided it. The Browns had to trade away future first round picks to be able to bust on Quinn at 22 overall.

1. Andre Smith 6th overall, 2009 - Cincinnati

I doubt this guy will be the biggest bust of the decade. In fact, he'll probably be pretty good. I just put him at number 1 because that's where his name was cut and pasted onto my list.

The story goes like this: Smith was the highest regarded tackle in the draft, until showing up to the combine completely out of shape. He then left early without telling anyone. After that, he put on a completely disappointing pro-day workout at his college.

The Bengals took the chance and drafted him 6th overall. How did he respond? With a 30-day rookie holdout, looking to bilk them out of $10 million more than what they offered. Once they finally got him on the field, he broke his foot in pre-season.

How did these jokers ever sweep the division?

More Thoughts

2009-11-29T22:08:00.000-08:00

Carey Davis should be a ball carrier. I have had this debate with Matt Wein and Bruce Arians about a billion times now. Dude is an absolute truck, but not really a fullback. In fact, the only reason Bruce Arians has him playing fullback is because he's kind of a fatty and B.A. assumes FB is the only position for fatties. Jerome Bettis was a big man, but that didn't make him a FB by default. I'm not saying Carey Davis is Jerome Bettis, but he shows promise as the big back in our rotation.

Ryan Clark has gotten burnt this season without Troy. Tyrone Carter excelled when playing next to Troy in Clark's spot. I really like Ryan Clark, but these things have happened. His ball skills aren't great, and he has neither the speed nor the instincts to right himself after making a mistake. What he does bring is extreme physicality, which is a huge part of our game plan, when we're trying to scare slot receivers from running over the middle. He's part of the LeBeau philosophy of forcing the other guy to compromise and abandon entire parts of his gameplan. However, it's becoming apparent that what Clark brings comes at the expense of basic coverage technique. If we do happen to re-sign him in the offseason, I don't expect the deal to extend beyond Troy's.

William Gay is probably much better than he's been playing. Cornerback takes a while to develop, and while that's not any great comfort now, I think it's safe to say Gay's better days are coming and they'll be quite good. As it stands right now, he's getting burned on come back routes way too easy.

We didn't go to the 1-5 nearly as much as we wanted tonight. That was thanks to the Ravens' ability to run, which necessitates us being in the 3-4 base. However, when we were in the 1-5, we found a way to generate a very decent amount of pressure.

Did WE stomp on a Terrible Towel recently?

2009-11-29T21:05:00.000-08:00

We didn't lose because of Dixon. That's the first and most obvious point to cover. Ben would have played a different game, but not necessarily a more productive one. Over his history with the Ravens, Roethlisberger has thrown 14 TDs and 9 picks in 9 games, averaging 176.7 passing yards in those games. For Dennis Dixon to produce 14 points against this team in his starting debut, while also protecting the ball for 4 quarters, that's pretty much as good of a performance as we can expect. His passer rating for the night is 60.8, while Joe Flacco's is 100.8; to this I say: whatever.

We rushed for 153 yards and they rushed for 132. I cannot believe that.

Mendenhall looked very good, and Dixon's run was beautiful, but our D-line was swiss cheese against their running backs. If there was any major divergence from previous Steelers-Ravens matchups, it would have to be the ease at which both teams were running. Here, have a look at recent history:

September 29, 2008:
Pit-69
Bal-103

December 14, 2008:
Pit-91
Bal-112

January 18, 2009:
Pit-52
Bal-73

Terrell Suggs and Aaron Smith are kind of a big deal.

The biggest play of the game was the 44-yard reception by Ray Rice on 4th and 5. We allowed them to go from 3rd and 22 on their own 29, to 1st and 10 on our 10 yard line in two plays. The missed tackles and sloppy coverage was mystifying, and I have no answers on that subject. Obviously we'd be better with Troy, but his absence doesn't begin to explain how every other defensive back has forgotten how to tackle. It's simply shocking, and has everything to do with why we're losing.

I feel like I let you down by not providing a scouting report. In retrospect, I'll say these things about the dirty birds:
-Ray Rice is a small, tough sonofabitch who bounces off tackles like a pinball. What I didn't realize before tonight, is that he's also one of their top receivers. In fact, he's runner-up to lead wideout, Derrick Mason in receiving yards. We saw everything he does tonight, and can't help but say he's legit. Fuck that guy.
-Todd Heap is a very good receiving TE, in fact he straddles the line between WR and TE. Tonight he did very little. Surprising.
-Mark Clayton is the Santonio who never really broke out; tonight we let him break out for 129 yards. That's weak stuff.
-Baltimore's D-Line is in transition. Since losing Rex Ryan to the Jets, they've moved closer to a 4-3 than a 3-4 (they switch back and forth every couple of years), with Suggs playing DE, and Haloti Ngata being more of a DT than a pure NT, and Trevor Pryce playing DE instead of DT. This is slightly more than semantics, as it does change the composition of their pass rush. For the most part, the pressure now comes from LOLB, Jarret Johnson. Tonight was an impressive display by our O-line to not let that pressure show.

I don't think it's a run of bad luck we're hitting. I don't think it's a complex system of things building to these losses. No, I think we're just killing ourselves by not playing hard and well on every snap. Last year our defense and special teams played well on every single down. It was unreasonable, yes; but it set the bar, and we're obviously failing to reach it now.

I'll write some more tomorrow when I'm supposed to be at work.

Serious, though

2009-11-29T00:22:00.001-08:00

I want Dixon.

This Is My Worst Nightmare

2009-11-28T23:33:00.000-08:00

Tomorrow I'll post a short essay on why we shouldn't actually be afraid.

2009-11-28T21:33:00.000-08:00

Ben will come in to play in the 3rd. It will be the end of our season.

Ugh.... this isn't going to be fun

2009-11-22T19:14:00.000-08:00

Let's start with Special Teams.

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a change in kicker. I don't think there's a good enough alternative on the free agent circuit to outright cut Reed, but we may use someone else on kickoffs. That would either be an outside hire, or perhaps we try Sepulveda at it. It's not entirely Reed's fault that these kicks are being returned, BUT his kicks aren't helping. It's not simply the depth, but also the lack of hang time.

I would be surprised if James Harrison wasn't on the coverage team from here on out. Maybe Ryan Clark. Maybe even Hines Ward. Today we had Ike Taylor, William Gay and Lawrence Timmons on the unit, and it wasn't enough.

I also think there may have to be a change in the coaching. Tomlin will pull out all the stops to fix this bullshit.

Alright. Let's move on.

We had 515 total yards today and lost. Everyone is to blame.

The defense played very well, except for when it mattered. Ben played exceptionally well, except for when it mattered. The receivers were awesome, except for when it mattered. Hell, I didn't even think Sepulveda was that good when it mattered.

Let's break this down point by point.

Ben was dominating the game until the first drive of the second-half ended in an interception. This was the throw to Heath, which was bobbled in the Tight End's hands, and ended up going to the linebacker. There was very little with this throw, and it should have been caught. Next drive after that we had to punt after going 3 and out. Drive after that, Ben was awesome, right up until he threw a pick in the endzone. This throw was wobbly because a pass-rusher hit Ben's arm as he was throwing; doesn't change the fact that nobody was on the spot Ben was throwing to. Big, bad read. Then Ben finished up his contributions to the game with a nice toss to Mendenhall for 3 TDs and 2 picks, worth 398 (!) yards (it speaks of all kinds of problems that our QB needed to throw for 133 yards per TD).

We still don't know how bad the concussion was. We'll probably learn that tomorrow, or possibly as late as Tuesday when Tomlin meets with the press. It doesn't look great. There were few signs that he was laughing it off. I won't speculate on anything now, but obviously this would be the big one if we lost Ben.

As for evaluating his play over the course of the game: it was certainly much better than last week, as he was able to find all of his receivers in space, or make the accurate throws more often than not. I noticed he wasn't checking down to Moore or Mendenhall as much as they were open (they were getting open in the flats a ton); this is largely the result of a the KC defense being so porous, and not necessitating a check down to the flats. As far as mechanics go, Ben was alright. Better than most; but ultimately not good enough. He was certainly as good as it gets when it comes to evading sacks. Bottom line: I'm not going to pin this one on Ben, but I'm also not going to endorse the stat line that gives him a 109 QB rating.

Mendenhall continues to grow on all of us. What's most impressive to me is his blocking and receiving ability. I'd love to see him worked into more screen patterns, and used almost like a Brian Westbrook or Edgerrin James. I'm still terrified he's going to fumble every time I look at him, but I can't deny that he's looking really good. Willie Parker is, as they say in hockey, playing with desperation. I like it, and will miss Fast Willie in 2010.

One more note on the run game, and that has to do with play calling. The post-game shows were buzzing with calls about how bad the play calling was, that Bruce didn't run the ball enough. The guy who hosts 'Cooler Talk' made two very good, contradictory points griping about how Arians called for a toss play to Moore on 3rd down in overtime, and then also yelling at his callers for blaming Arians for not running Mendenhall on 3rd down more. He's right about both. It was wrong for Arians to run a toss to Mo on 3rd down when we only needed 2 yards to bring us within FG range. It is also wrong to criticize Arians for not rushing RM in those short yardage situations (he was far more effective when they weren't stacking the line). What Arians should have done (and this is where the host of 'Cooler Talk' failed to continue) is either pound Moore right at the pile (as he has a history of being able to move forward if that's the direction he's going in), or hit Mendenhall or Moore in the flats with a quick pass. A toss play = dumb; a power run with #34 = unreliable.

Ward looked great.

Holmes looked great.

Wallace screwed the pooch. Not enough to give them points, but perhaps enough to cost us some.

Heath is great, and may have the best hands of anyone; accidents happen.

The O-line wasn't superb. They had some nice run blocking, but the passing pocket was suspect, and if it weren't for Ben's brilliance and KC's incompetence, our QB would be in an even worse place than he is right now. What I'm noticing by our O-line is a regression to the stand-around-watch technique, where they'll get beat, or even they'll beat their guy, and then just kind of stand there, waiting for the next play instead of blocking at the second level or coming back to double team someone.

The D-line had its moments. Hampton and Keisel are getting so much more action with Smith out, and playing admirably. Ziggy had a nice pass deflected. Eason isn't bad. However, all that said, we're not putting ourselves in a position to employ the defensive packages we want. Our run defense last two weeks hasn't been stout enough to entirely discourage running in the second half. When we did that Minnesota and Denver, we were able to get Casey off the field and bring in an extra DB to terrorize the middle of the field. When we couldn't do that today, we gave up more big plays than we have since facing Warner and Fitzgerald in the Super Bowl (their former O-coordinator is now the coach for the Chiefs, if you noticed any of those familiar patterns against our secondary).

The linebackers would seem to be the most productive unit, generating 4 sacks and fumble; but, they too were to blame for today's loss. Who in the hell was supposed to be on the running back when Cassel passed to him for 2 yards in the fourth? No one was close to him. Dominance isn't measured in sacks, as much as it is in snuffing out those routine plays.

The secondary looked weak. This was the worst they've looked without Troy all year. I appreciate that Clark and Carter were coming up in run support all day, but it made no sense for us to be playing cover 0 on those long completions over the middle. I have no explanation for that, but I know William Gay is not good enough to stop a deep play when he's in a middle zone or on a one-on-one assignment. He absolutely needs help over the top. It's easy to make a goat out of Ike on that not-a-fumble-because-it-wasn't-an-interception, but the bottom line is he shut down his side of the field all day. He very quietly amassed a fair number of tackles, while keeping his man from being thrown to until that moment (and in that case he broke up the play). Ike was not the problem. It was William Gay who was being singled out, and it was Carter and Clark who were hitting harder on running plays than on pass plays. That was the problem. It was as if we got so comfortable in the assumption that KC couldn't catch the ball, that we stopped hitting them as hard as we were hitting Minnesota or Denver. That completely works against our system of smash-mouth defense, and will result in huge plays.

Sepulveda is very good. Much better than Mitch Berger. But--and I've been waiting a few weeks to say it because I didn't want it to be true-- he's not THAT great. It's a bit wonky to evaluate punters based on the available stats, and I could probably make a good case for why he IS elite, using the stats we have; however, I'll say this based on what I see with my eyes: he was very hot in preseason and the first month of the regular season, and since then he's been losing some of the 'automatic' quality he had. His punts aren't automatically deep and high hanging; he's not automatically putting them on the spot he wants; he's not automatically stopping them short of the goalline. I'm not concerned or anything; I mean, this is only his second season playing. The dude's ceiling is ridiculously high. I just want it to be clear that in OT, when we're punting from the 40, the correct play is not that touchback. A touchback is okay, but not that touchback. In that situation, Sepulveda has to be able to coffin corner it within the 10, or even with the 15 if he wants to be considered an elite punter.

It's still a great day to be alive. Don't forget that, people.

A lot of football left to play!

Mike Florio Friday!

2009-11-20T12:34:00.000-08:00

Take it away, dumbass.

1. Revis playing with fire

Over his 12-year career, Patriots receiver Randy Moss has made a habit of responding to external sources of motivation by having big games. For Sunday's rematch with the Jets, cornerback Darrelle Revis has provided such motivation, despite an apparent effort not to do so.

Discussing Moss' subpar performance against the Jets in Week 2, Revis insisted that he handled Moss on his own. Moss and Patriots coach Bill Belichick claim Revis had help deep.

Okay. That's reasonable. The CB is bragging that he beat Moss. Moss is firing back that it was a two man effort when the play developed deep.

To a certain degree, it's a matter of semantics. In many cases, a cornerback in man-to-man coverage has a safety backing him up in the event the receiver breaks free.

How is that a matter of semantics? How the hell is that a matter of semantics?

Look. Sometimes a team will play cover 2, and in those cases Moss will be in double coverage when he goes deep. Sometimes they'll play cover 0 or cover 1, in which case the CB Revis is correct in saying he singlehandedly stopped Moss.

This isn't an issue of multiple interpretations being possible. Surely you have the time on your hands to review the game, and then report back to us which player was correct in his analysis of the situation, instead of just saying "well usually teams play safeties over the top, so maybe it's possible they're both right."

2. Tampa surprise?

The Saints received an unlikely scare when the Rams came within 32 yards of knocking off the unbeaten juggernaut from New Orleans. This week, the Saints face another one-win team with nothing to lose.

I'm not going to do the research on how the Rams made the game so close, but I will safely conclude that their having "nothing to lose" wasn't it. A few weeks ago, they had nothing to lose to the Colts, and then got thumped 42-6. Being really, really, really, REALLY bad does not lend any advantage.

Not long ago, the Buccaneers looked dreadful. Under rookie quarterback Josh Freeman, they're improving.

Tampa Bay is allowed 28.4 points a game on average. Last two games (the ones Josh Freeman QBed), they've allowed 28 and 25 points. If you think a rookie QB is going to step in and consistently generate 30 points a week, then yes, you would think the Bucs are on the path towards improving their record.

Whether they've improved enough to remain within striking distance of the Saints remains to be seen. But if the Rams can do it, the Bucs can surely do it, too.

Again, I don't care enough to look into why the Rams made this idiot think the Bucs can almost beat the Saints. Bottom line: the Saints are much better than most of their shitty competition, but will come back down to earth in the second half of the season.

3. Colts heading "home"

More than 25 years ago, the Colts loaded up the Mayflowers and headed to Indianapolis. Now, they're making a pilgrimage back to Baltimore.

Thank you, Tim Brown.

And the Colts really like playing the team that currently resides in their old hometown. Since 2002, the Colts have a 6-0 record against the Ravens, whose stellar defense simply hasn't been able to sufficiently slow down Peyton Manning.

Were you wondering what I was wondering? Prior to 2002, the Ravens were 2-0 against the Colts. Small sample size over the course of many years = highest order of relevancy.

Last year, in a season that saw the Ravens reach the AFC title game, old Baltimore beat new Baltimore (which is also old Cleveland) by 28 points in Week 6.

I wonder if by the terms of Cleveland's settlement, Mike Florio is guilty of some violation of trademark in that "old Cleveland" statement. I hope so.

This year, they [sic] stakes are even higher. The Colts are looking to extend their perfect record to 10-0, and the Ravens need a win to stay in the chase for the postseason.

Stakes are pretty high. Stakes were pretty high back in 2008 too, when both teams were stumbling out of the gate, needing a win to right their 2-2 starts.

Given recent history, the Ravens surely wish they were drawing a different opponent this week.

Know who else they've lost to in the past? The Dolphins! 5 times! Also: the Browns! 7 times. I don't think history has a lot to do with it. In fact, I think it's the Colts' current record that is making Baltimore wish they were playing a different team.

Okay. Now everyone take a deep breath.

We're about to go into the Mike Florio EXTREME zone.

This is the big one, folks.

4. Vikings begin to reel out rewards

With the Vikings winning eight of nine games, the guy who helped build the team has gotten a new contract.

Dumb. Not Florio, the Vikings. They're dumb for giving that guy a long term deal. He's an idiot and won't be able to maintain the success when talent like AP, the Williams brothers, and Favre dry up (2011, 2010/2012, and December 20, 2009 respectively).

But what about some of the guys who are actually making it happen?

Holy shit! It's like Mike Florio's on the same wave length. He gets what I'm saying! Go on, Mike Florio...

Though it arguably was premature to give a new contract to coach Brad Childress,

...yes...

it's arguably overdue to lock up Adrian Peterson for the long haul.

Eh. Best player in the game right now? Yes. Long shelf life? No!

Okay, here it comes.

His current deal expires after the 2011 season, and there's a chance that Peterson might be losing plenty of tread from his tires by the time he's eligible for free agency.

That's why the Vikings need to take care of Peterson now.

!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TOUCHDOWN!!!!

Especially if they've decided that it's time to take care of the guy whose job Peterson has helped save.

And the point after is good!

One more time.

there's a chance that Peterson might be losing plenty of tread from his tires by the time he's eligible for free agency.

Peterson could be in decline by 2011, when he's no longer getting paid by the Vikings.

That's why the Vikings need to take care of Peterson now

Therefore the Vikings should see to it now, that they get him to agree to be paid by them in his decline.

Especially if they've decided that it's time to take care of the guy whose job Peterson has helped save.

Because they already spent a bunch of money on a guy who won't be very good when his players enter their decline.

Mike Florio went all the way.

I'm not going to be able to go on.

He just wins.

Other People Who Know Things About Football

2009-11-20T12:14:00.000-08:00

I've mentioned MJD in the past. He's my favorite Yahoo! Sports blogger. Not only is he a pretty progressive mind, he's also very good at his job, which is to watch a lot of sports, read a lot about sports, monitor the media buzz, and then synthesize and comment on what everyone's saying.

In this post about Belichick, he takes the unorthodox position of defending the madman, and links to a really superb site.

This site. Go to it. Love it. Cherish it. It's SO freaking good.

The WP calculator can be taken with the biggest grain of salt possible, but it's still really cool.

The excitement calculator completely misses the point on what's exciting, which is hilarious.

The blog is wonderfully written. It probably teaches more about economics and game theory than it does about football, but that's just fine. I particularly like this article.

Check them out. You'll thank me later.

A Dramatic Recap of the Colts-Pats Game

2009-11-16T11:12:00.000-08:00

A dramatic retelling of the Thrilla-In-Indianapolilla has been requested. Here it goes:

The Colts hosted the Pats in what NBC continually described as the Rivalry of the Decade. (Every time they described it that way, I got a little bit more angry at them, but not as angry as I get when Jon Gruden yells 'WILDCAT!' at parked cars.)

The Pats won the coin toss, and elected to defer until the second half.

Indy went 3-and-out on their first possession, and then did the same to New England.

Then, on their second possession, the Colts drove the ball down the field. Belichick challenged a catch by Reggie Wayne and lost. The Colts went on to score a TD on a short toss from Manning to his HB in the redzone. The subsequent fireworks lit a small portion of the astroturf on fire and the PAT was delayed while a grounds crew worker put out the flames with a water bottle.

The Pats immediately responded with a TD of their own, evening things up at 7-7.

New England then tacked on 17 straight points, while their defense handcuffed Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne, sacked Manning, and injured the Colts' younger receiving options. 24-7, Patriots.

With just over 4 minutes left in the second, Indianapolis scored a much needed TD to make it a ten point game, at 24-14.

-------------------
| Half time show. |
-------------------

The Indy defense, though thoroughly abused in the second quarter, came up with two HUGE plays in the third.

Brady used Moss to dominate the secondary all night prior, but on the first drive of the third quarter was fooled by a really nice coverage pattern by Antoine Bethea, and the Colts' safety was able to step in front of Moss in the endzone for an interception.

Manning was incapable of doing anything. After a rare misfire, where the ball came tumbling out of his grip as he threw, Manning made a rare, terrible misread of the field on the next down and was intercepted himself.

The Pats then drove the ball to the Colts goal line, when Indianapolis came up with a huge fumble in the end zone, by NE runningback, Lawrence Maroney. Taking it back to the 20 as a touchback, the Colts were unable to do anything, once again. Forced to punt, the Indy coverage team allowed the elusive Wes Welker to return the ball 69 yards and set New England up on the Colts 7 yard line, ending the third quarter.

Two plays into the fourth, Brady connected with Moss again for another TD, making it 31-14, New England.

At this point, Manning had been completely frustrated by the Patriot defense. They had taken away his favorite option in TE, Dallas Clark, and his young receivers were getting more and more banged up. So, the Colts made an adjustment. They stopped using their trademark no-huddle, and slowed their pace down. They also put more emphasis in running the ball and hitting short pass options.

It worked! The Colts were able to take advantage of a New England linebacking corps which was, itself bruised up pretty bad, and a D-line that was a far cry from the days of Seymour-Wilfork-Warren (of the three, only Wilfork was left). A beautiful corner-fade from Manning to second-year man, Pierre Garcon made it a ten point game again, at 31-21.

With 12 minutes left in the game, New England took the ball on the kickoff. The Indy defense eventually stopped them but not before they had taken 4 minutes off the clock.

With the ball back in Manning's hands, the Colts' hall of fame QB threw an interception with 7:44 left, which seemed to seal the game. After bringing the clock down to 4:12, New England kicked a FG to make it a thirteen point game, 34-21.

Earlier in the half, New England slot receiver, Wes Welker had called for a timeout. New England was down to 2, while Indy still had all 3.

Between 4:07 and 2:23 left in regulation, Manning led a brilliant TD drive, capitalizing on soft coverage in the middle of the field. The Pats completely sold out covering the sidelines and deep, which proved to be a fatal mistake against a team as disciplined and efficient as Indianapolis. As an example of how efficient they were: no timeouts were spent.

It was now a 6 point game with 2:23 left. 34-28.

Indy kicked the ball out of the endzone, taking no time off the clock, and placing New England on the 20.

Tom Brady began the drive by handing off to Kevin Faulk, the veteran utility-back, who is the New England version of Mewelde Moore. The Colts' defense crashed the line and held Faulk for no gain.

First Indianapolis timeout. 2:18 left.

Brady then connected with Welker, and the little WR almost slipped by for the first, but a clutch tackle limited his gain to 8 yards.

Second Indianapolis timeout. 2:11 left.

Brady attempted to repeat the play, but his pass was incomplete.

The clock stopped with 2:08 left! 4th and 2 on the New England 28 yard-line.

At this point New England called the a timeout. I can't remember how they spent their second timeout, but this was their last. It was called by Belichick.

The Patriots offense, which had been converting in short yardage situations all night, returned to the field, well in their own territory, needing only 2 yards.

Brady passed to Kevin Faulk in the right flat, with the ball leading him over the line.

BUT!!

Faulk bobbled it in the air....!

...and Colts safety Melvin Bullitt crashed into him, sending him backwards...

...somehow, though...

Faulk managed to pull the ball with him, eventually establishing possession, but not before he was a solid yard behind the line of scrimmage.

1:57 on the play clock.

No!

Because of something weird with the 2-minute warning and change of possession on downs, time was restored to 2:00.

Manning took the field on the New England 29.

15-yard completion to Wayne took it to the 14, and Indy let the clock run down 40 seconds.

1:20 left. Joseph Addai rushed it to the goalline, where he was (perhaps, stupidly) tackled by New England.

The Colts brought the clock down to 0:36, before rushing Addai again. Nothing.

0:13 and Manning hit Wayne on a short slant, tying up the game. 34-34. The PAT made it 35-34, Indy.

After the ensuing kickoff, New England only had 0:09 seconds.

Unfortunately, Tom Brady was not hurt.

Review of Second Bengals Game

2009-11-15T20:54:00.000-08:00

I'm all too jazzed by the Indy-over-New England buzzer beater to really shit on my guys, but I'll try to do it anyway.

Things went poorly today for the Steelers. It was a combination of our bumbling, idiot foes proving they're absolutely legit, and us playing asleep all day long. Cincinnati came prepared for a playoff caliber game, and no one on our side matched that.

The O-line reverted to old form. Max Starks looked completely lost, while the guards were practically inviting linebackers to penetrate the inside gaps. Hartwig was probably the most useful lineman, as he routinely followed Mendenhall where ever he went, so that in the case that there was a fumble, he'd at least be able to make the tackle.

Santonio looked good. Could have used him reeling in a TD when he was thrown to in the endzone, but in general, he was the only go-to guy.

Miller and Spaeth were being used as pass blockers, which is terribly dumb. Spaeth simply isn't much of a blocker, and Heath gives you so much more protection as a safety-valve target than as the 6th lineman. The Steelers simply don't have a swingman at the TE position for bolstering pass protection. They'd be better to declare a backup lineman as an eligible receiver, and line him up tight. The Bengals did that, and CBS called it the wildcat (for the record, lining up a third offensive tackle is about as close to the wildcat as my Ford Taurus is to a reindeer drawn sleigh; one thing that is popular in several variations of the wildcat is to switch the positioning of the TE and the tackle, so that the center is no longer centered on the line; think: T-T-G-C-G-TE; all I'm suggesting, and what the Bengals were doing is: T-G-C-G-T-T).

Mendenhall had several beautiful moments, but for the most part got stopped. Stopped by the Bengals' D-line, and stopped by Bruce Arians. There'll be a lot of second guessing, as to why Ben threw 40 times when he was so clearly out of his element today. I definitely wouldn't say Mendenhall was getting it done on the ground, but it did feel to me like we abandoned any hope of finding a rhythm on the ground, despite several promising plays by Moore and Fast Willie.

Ben looked like he had a contact stuck in his eyelid all day. Something just wasn't right for him. He throwing off target, making dumb decisions on routes, and just being completely incapable of finding a comfort zone in the pocket. I've been waxing on recently about how smart he's been looking for holding the ball and taking the sacks; yes, that's still true for a lot of today, but towards the end, he absolutely needs to throw it up.

I don't know who called up the four plays on the last drive, but they must have been hung over and phoning it in as hard as possible. First play: throw it deep and go for the flag. Mike Wallace admitted in the post-game show that they were JUST playing for the penalty on that one. Hell of a strategy guys. Way to play the game the way it's meant to be played. Second down: they did something stupid that didn't result in anything, can't remember what. Third down: again, passed downfield. Why!? You still have 1:30 left on the clock with one timeout, and you're going to be able to use fourth down. All you need on third is to get close enough that making it on fourth becomes very doable.

Some good plays by Ike and Gay; followed by some serious whiffs on tackles by both of them, Woodley, and Timmons in the fourth. Sloppy shit.

Ryan Clark continues to be the hardest hitter on the team.

The Bengals strategy was pretty simple and effective: run just enough to keep Casey Hampton on the field for more snaps than we want. It's not just that Casey gets winded, it's that by the third quarter, LeBeau wants to be almost exclusively in the 1-5 nickel. By continuing to pick up tough yardage on the ground (and granted, this was not a clinic by them at all), they forced us to stay in the 3-4 and not bring all the pressure we normally send from the edges.

I'm not even going to get into special teams now. They're atrocious, and I expect to see James Harrison back on the coverage team next week.

Cinci looked really good. Tip your hat to them. I keep wanting to say "well let's see the Bengals play ____, and then we'll know their true worth." The fact is, we've gotten to see what they're worth twice now, and they haven't left a lot to mystery; the Ravens have gotten to see them twice, and they've gotten a full showing; yeah, maybe I'd still like to see Bengals vs. NE or Indy, but those matchups aren't out of the question if they keep up at things.

The Bengals defense is what's legit. I was sure they'd get slowed by injuries, but apparently they have depth. Those linebackers are damn good; you really wouldn't know how young they were if they didn't all look like college students. Both their D- and O-lines were awesome, and dominated the point of attack. And of course, Palmer played a very smart game of 'protect the football.'

Baltimore is likely 5-4 after tomorrow night. We're 6-3. We still have two games against Baltimore. NOTHING is decided. This loss to Cincinnati doesn't at all kill our playoff chances; the fact that we play in the AFC North is what hurts our playoff chances.

I don't love Sundays like this, but I love being a Steelers' fan, because we're still poised for a lot more good football. Let's just pick ourselves up, allow Mike Tomlin to make some purges, and get ready for the Chiefs.

Games to Watch

2009-11-12T22:33:00.000-08:00

Cowboys (6-2) at Packers (4-4):

If the Packers are going to make something of themselves, this is it.

Eagles (5-3) at Chargers (5-3):

Monday night was the first time we ever did anything nice for San Diego. They still hate us times a billion, but we absolutely sucked the legitimacy out of their rival and divisional leader. If there was ever a week to pivot an entire season, this is it. The Chargers upset the Giants last time, next up is NFC East Philly.

Philadelphia is probably the most legitimate franchise that never won a Super Bowl in our lifetime. They play really great, quick defense at the line of scrimmage, and have one of the best-to-watch QBs ever in McNabb (quickly: here's the deal w/ McNabb: he's super and his fans don't deserve him; he throws the football as crisply as anyone, ever; reads the field extremely well; and, even as an old man, can waddle his way towards the markers much faster than most-- therefore, Philadelphia HATES him. These are the same people who hated Eric Lindros and Mike fucking Schmidt. FUCKING.Assholes).

Jaguars (4-4) at Jets (4-4):

This isn't so much a game to watch, as a game on which to comment. I told yinz the Jags were a team to respect, even if they were bad. Well? What do you know? They won a couple of games. I also told yinz that the Jets were a smoke-n-mirrors undefeated when they were 3-0. Well? What did I know? Everything. Which, incidentally, is also the answer to the rhetorical question of "what am I right about?"

Anyway.

Jags@Jets, expect some good things from the Jags front four, at least on the right side of the Jets line and in the run stopping game. They'll also play physical, press coverage against half of the Jets' receiving corps, the half not named Braylon Edwards. You can also expect Jacksonville to get a little frisky with their pass formations, probably going 3 wide on the majority of plays, with single back or no-TE I. This is because the Jets are without Kris Jenkins at NT, and as we know, when a 3-4 doesn't have a dominant NT, it's all too easy to run.

Seahawks (3-5) at Cardinals (5-3):

This is NOT a game to watch. It is a game to swing a division, but it is NOT a division to care about. It may be a division which sends a team(s) to the Super Bowl(s), but WHATEV(ER)s.

The Cardinals are absolutely a third-tier team in the grand scheme of things, but in a western division, that goes for a lot. They already had some pretty decent defensive players; Ken Whiz turned them into a decent defensive core, and then legitimatized their pass-happy offense. I expect their undersized D-linemen to penetrate and distract-w/-boredom the Seattle backfield enough so that the Seahawks' undersized-yet-high-draft-pick linebacking corps are futile in this 6-5 heart stopper.

Ravens (4-4,666) at Browns (1-7) :

HA!

(they JUST sold out, which means I get to watch. Hey... here's to 'em, GOOOOOO BROWnies.ss.s.ses.efdsf.sdg..ger.gre........ger...........g........f.a.r....ts........................:sdfukxclk.fcuck...........f..............aaaaaaaaaaawwww.wwww.pooo...o...ooooor.......bastar........ds.......

Patriots (6-2) at Colts (8-0):

This is the game that spurred this entire post.

Oh my god what a great game.

I spend all summer long waiting for a Sunday Night Baseball game this good, and it doesn't come up (okay, that Cards@Cubs where Sweet Lou doubleswitched his pitcher into left field so he could use him twice in the same game, that was PRETTY great), but here we go: this is it. The holy grail of regular season, extradivisional rivals. ; Oh my god, if you go have sex instead of grabbing your girlfriend, violently by the hair and dragging her to the television to watch with you;...well then you're a Buccaneers' fan, not a true blooded, impotent American!

Colts are 109 +/-. The Pats are 110 +/-. Know what the Colts are? Old men trying to prove that father time is an old wives' tale. Know what the Pats are? Old men who happened to have traded Rich Seymour one season too soon and are now dick enough to run up the score against patsies in an effort to prove to the world that they're still sexy and viable. FUCK. THEM.

These teams are absolutely exciting. Hyperbole and witticism aside.

The Pats came into the season as the sweethearts of every SI and ESPN whore, because they're the Pats and (a) are great, (b) bought off the judges.

The Colts came into the season as the best (as always), but aging; they responded with their best defense ever, finally realizing that dream that Chuck Noll put into Tony Dungy's head of small linemen collapsing a pocket not with strength, but with speed. They're missing their best run stopper, safety Bob Sanders, but that hasn't hurt them at all. Meanwhile, Peyton has adjusted to the absence of his best on-the-field friend, Marvin Harrison, by accelerating the careers of Pierre Garcon and Antonio Gonzalez.

As Electric Light Orchestra says: ____________

Review of the Denver Game

2009-11-12T10:04:00.000-08:00

We look pretty great these days.

I don't mean to be cocky, but when our defense is scoring more than they're allowing two games in a row, against good teams... that's championship caliber ball. There's nothing cocky about saying that.

Let's talk about the progression of the game.

It started out ugly looking, perhaps. I personally thought it was brilliant football, but let's consider why it may have appeared ugly, like the Broncos were outplaying the Steelers. It appeared that way because Orton was completing a bunch of short passes and Ben wasn't completing anything. Why I wasn't at all worried: because I lived through the 2008 season. What I saw was a defensive line that stayed firm in their running lanes, not budging an inch; I saw our offensive line giving Ben all the time in the world, and letting him be the one to decide whether the play would work; I saw our secondary getting increasingly physical with each tackle after short completion; I saw Orton moving a bit further back into the pocket each time, instead of up into it; I saw our zone coverage mixing up early, often and effectively. It's not something I say at halftime, but I was very excited with the way we had played 2 quarters, even if our offense hadn't come out firing. I knew then that it was only a matter of time, because both of our lines were rock solid.

Then there was a blip.

Chris Kemoeatu left an opening in the O-line and they stripped Ben for 7 points. Ben came into the second half locked in, but that seemed to really light a fire under his butt. Seeing him hit Kemoeatu upside the head on the sidelines was priceless. And as you know, from that point on, the Steelers brought their 2009 offense, and combined it with that dominating Steel Curtain defense we saw every week last year and are beginning to see regularly again.

If there's a lesson to be taken from this game, as a viewer, it's that those early short-pass drives by our opponents are acceptable. If you see a team run the ball or knock our D-line backwards in the first half, that's worrisome. But hitting slant routes and having to settle for field goals: let 'em have it. It's all they'll be getting.

Here's the breakdown:

Ben was great. He started off cold, yes. But he's great. For everyone complaining about sacks, I say: shut up, you didn't have to watch him in 2007-2008. This year the majority of his sacks have been due to good coverage in the secondary, and Ben's refusal to force a throw. If he wants to get hit because he doesn't have an open man, it's his right as the decision maker. Besides the interception (which was a TERRIBLE lapse of good decision making and mechanics, and shouldn't be overlooked), his passing was elite, going 21 for 29 with 3 TDs.

I may have been a little too apprehensive about Rashard Mendenhall's chances of making it in this league. The dude is good. He's got better vision than Willie ever did, better pop at the point of contact, and a pretty excellent second gear when he gets into the open field. He's still good loose hands, and I want to see how he handles a team like the Ravens or Bengals before I'm sold. But so far, he's doing exactly what we need out of him. Side note: if you noticed, he was running predominantly to the right side. That's because we were eating up former Steeler lineman, Ryan McBean. McBean never made it off our practice squad for a reason, and we were showing that Monday night.

Max Starks was great.

Yes.

Santonio played extremely well for a dude with a sickle cell condition. I was shocked at how many touches and fly routes they had him running, knowing that he has trouble breathing in high altitude.

Max Starks was great.

Really.

Troy turned the game on its head with his tackle for a loss, followed by the interception. He is so ridiculously great at football.

Know who else played well?

Max Starks and the O-line. !! It's so weird how Kevin Colbert can sign a guy and all of a sudden he's good at football, but it keeps happening, and it's happened big time with big Max Starks. This is two games in a row he's shut down a premiere pass rusher. As a unit, the line is also getting quite good at run blocking. I can't tell how much of this is fluke (certainly not all of it), and how much of it is legit (CERTAINLY not all of it), but we're going to keep watching.

Ziggy Hood looked good. He doesn't have pass rushing speed from the DE position, but he has sideline to sideline speed, which is more useful in a 3-4.

Keisel and Hampton are elevating their game with Smith being out. That's really good to see. Keisel we knew could do it. Hampton will be able to keep doing it until October 2010, when he goes on the Browns' I.R.

Ty Carter is good. He's not Ryan Clark good, but he's a very good backup.

Ike played a super game. Very physical, got his hands on some balls. Did what he had to do to make the Broncos pay for every catch.

In another few weeks I'll begin to explore whether Mike Wallace has a shot at being the offensive rookie of the year. He's certainly the most productive rookie we've had since Ben or Heath, and that's more a result of our policy to ease guys in over several years, instead of giving them instant action.

Cinci next. This is the game we want to play.

This will happen at our games from now on

2009-11-11T14:42:00.001-08:00

Mid-Season Report

2009-11-08T12:45:00.001-08:00

After this week, every team will have played at least 8 games, and will be halfway towards their destiny.

The question on everyone's mind: which 12 teams make the playoffs?

I'm not going to answer that, except to eliminate some teams from contention.

It's safe to say these guys are out in the AFC:
-Buffalo
-Cleveland
-Jacksonville
-Tennessee
-Oakland
-Kansas City

In the NFC, the list-o-losers looks like this:
-Washington
-Detroit
-Tampa Bay
-Seattle
-St. Louis
-Carolina

That leaves us with these divisions:

AFC East:
-New England
-New York
-Miami

AFC North:
-Cincinnati
-Pittsburgh
-Baltimore

AFC South:
-Indianapolis
-Houston

AFC West:
-Denver
-San Diego

NFC East:
-Philadelphia
-New York
-Dallas

NFC North:
-Minnesota
-Green Bay
-Chicago

NFC South:
-New Orleans
-Atlanta

NFC West:
-Arizona
-San Francisco

Twenty teams, twelve spots.

Gun to my head, I'd say Miami and Chicago are both out.

Eighteen teams, twelve spots.

I'd probably also grant that Indianapolis and New Orleans are in.

Sixteen teams, ten spots.

Baltimore is in deep shit. They're about to give Cincinnati a 2 game lead, with two losses coming to the Bengals themselves. That means they can't play to tie records, they have to surpass, and without the benefit of another match-up. I hate to remove them until they've played us, but let's move them just out of the picture. Same with Green Bay.

That's fourteen teams, ten spots.

San Fran and Arizona don't both make the cut. The AFC North and NFC East should both produce multiple teams, as they have in the recent past.

Those are all the bold predictions you're getting for now.

A word on the Broncos

2009-11-07T15:47:00.000-08:00

This is not manly, nor is it part of team tradition.

This is their old uniform, and it's much better than this.

From 1983 until 1998, John "Ben Roethlisberger" Elway led them to all kinds of satisfying seasons, and two championships ('97,'98).

In 1995, Mike Shanahan took over as head coach. I always liked him; he was a Bill Cowher or a Jeff Fischer. Built his team at the line of scrimmage, and then plugged skill players into a ready-made system.

One system that Shanahan installed was a very distinct zone blocking scheme on the line, which consistently straddled the definition of legal contact. Not that there's anything wrong with an O-line playing in a zone (same principle as when a defense does it), but what the Broncos do is sneak in cut blocks, or low hits on defenders who don't see it coming. Hitting a defender below the hips in the open field is illegal, and it's illegal at the line if the defender is already being engaged by one blocker. Typically, a pass rusher can assume he'll know who he's taking on and be able to discount any cut block sneaking in; however, in zone blocking he can't be sure where the engagement will be. Basically, it's very hard to stop the run when you don't know if your nose tackle's moving into a zone where he'll have his hamstring assaulted. The Steelers' practice squad was simulating it all week in preparation, and they'll probably mention this in the game.

Things happened after Elway. QBs changed. Etc. Jay Cutler. Then soemthing else hapened and Mike Shanahan got phased out because he hadn't won a championship in 10 years. Denver hired a Belichick assistant who promptly pissed off Cutler and had to trade him for sack of shit, Bears' QB, Kyle Orton. Then Orton went 6-1 in his first 7 games this year and everyone was impressed.

And yes, they are kind of impressive. The Browns and Raiders are cupcakes, and the Broncos treated 'em like it. They also snuck by the Pats, Bengals and Cowboys by one score each, and then handled arch-rival San Diego on national television.

It's such a bullshit cliche to say the +/- on turnovers tells all: it simply doesn't, not in a 16 game sample size. However, it is somewhat at the heart of what's fueling the Broncos early success. They've gotten 1 pick from 6 different DBs so far, as well as 8 fumbles recovered by their defense. This is matched by their QB throwing only 1 interception. They're protecting the football, which is keeping them from being 5-2 or 4-3.

The other thing they're doing is winning on the ground. In their 6 victories, they've held their opponents to less than 100 rushing yards each time. They also pushed across 794 ground yards themselves in those games. That's awfully dominant, and keeps your QB out of trouble.

Of course, in the game they lost, they were stuffed for 66 total rushing yards by the Baltimore defense. This forced the Broncos to try converting on 3rd down through the air. Guess what. Didn't happen. Expect the Steelers to bring a similar approach. If they can stop Adrian Peterson and go on to beat Brett Favre, they can probably contain rookie RB Knowshon Moreno to get to Kyle Orton.

Their defense is a 3-4 (as are all teams coached by Belichickateers) but that's new, so expect to see some hybrid sets. They're known for their secondary. Champ Bailey is consistently listed as the best CB in football. I don't know how that's calculated, so I won't try to confirm it, but I will agree that he's good. Denver also picked up Brian Dawkins in FA, the veteran safety from the Eagles. He's excellent, but an injury waiting to happen. This past week, the Broncos went out and signed Ty Law, the veteran CB who won three titles with the Patriots. He was super good, and the plan is to play him at nickle until he gets hurt.

Willie "OUR STARTING RB! (-M. Tomlin)" Parker keeps fading in practice reps because of injuries or illness. Santonio is not going to be 100% because of his blood condition. This means Mike Wallace will have to find openings in the shadow of only one Super Bowl MVP, instead of two. Big test for the rookie against this secondary, so I don't expect him to be the one to open up the field. Heath will be clutch, as always, but in Denver's 3-4, they'll be looking to shoot a safety into the curl zones to jump our TE routes. So: we really need a lot out of Mendenhall and Mo. I expect to see a game plan similar to what we ran against the Chargers. A lot of single-back run plays designed to test the opposing NT. Force them to commit LBs to the line, and then hit those screen routes out of the bunch formation. Big, big game for Mendenhall.

If we protect the ball, we should be fine. If we don't it'll be extremely dicey.

DBs > everyone else?

2009-10-27T12:21:00.000-07:00

No.

But Michael Silver (who, I'll admit, is usually on the level) thinks so. Take it away, Mike.

The reality is that great defensive-back play has been on display all season in stadiums across America. More than at any point since Prime Time was in his prime, cornerbacks and safeties are stepping up and assuming starring roles.

Deion Sanders was big. His prime was the first half of the 1990s. Rod Woodson was the greatest defensive back of all time. He was amazing in those same years and continued to be, well into the early 2000s. Charles Woodson (1998-present), Rodney Harrison (1994-2008), and Champ Bailey (1999-present) were all premiere players in that era between Sanders and now. Elite DBs are never cast aside or overlooked. Ever.

But you disagree...

Think about it: Recent glamour positions on defense like pass rusher and middle linebacker
DB has always been a glamour position. In fact, just two years ago, the Colts' strong safety, Bob Sanders, won the defensive player of the year award. Three years before that, it was free safety, Ed Reed of the Ravens.

are in a bit of a slump, devalued by retirements (Michael Strahan, Warren Sapp), age (Ray Lewis) and injury (Brian Urlacher).

Funny. I thought James Harrison, a pass rushing linebacker won the defensive player of the year award in 2008. And didn't DeMarcus Ware, a pass rushing 'backer for the Cowboys just get awarded a $78 million contract because he's awesome? And what's this about Ray Lewis being too old? Are you CRAZY!?

Even on offense, with quarterbacks as the obvious exception, there’s a distinct dearth of comparable buzz; it can be argued that running backs and wideouts aren’t overwhelming the football world with legions of breakout stars as much as in recent years.

Granted, there are some AMAZING defensive backs in the game right now. But there are also some fantastic young receivers and ball carriers coming along. It's not a mistake that Troy Polamalu shared the cover of Madden '10 with Larry Fitzgerald. They're equal parts exciting.

Instead, it’s an era of safety first – Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Adrian Wilson and Brian Dawkins led their respective teams to conference-title games last season – and lots of action at the corner of Shut and Down.

Ed Reed- fantastic, been fantastic for years, is large reason the Ravens were so good last year. Main difference between the 2007 Ravens team that didn't go to the conference champion game and the 2008 team that did: Joe Flacco.

Troy Polamalu- fantastic, been fantastic for years, is large reason the Steelers were so good last year. Probably the third most valuable player on the team.

Adrian Wilson- fantastic, underrated safety, on a team that has a very suspect defense. Adrian Wilson did not have as much to do with getting the Cardinals anywhere, as say, the guys responsible for scoring the 3rd most points in the league last year.

Brian Dawkins- is what Michael Silver meant to write when he was plugging in names of injured, aged players. Dawkins is still very good, but he's one good hit away from Rodney Harrisoning out.

Look at the season’s first seven weeks, and the primary reason for a team’s success almost always comes back to its secondary:

Lay it on me.

Wondering why the Bengals (5-2) have already won more games than they did all of last season? Carson Palmer’s return to health and Chad Ochocinco’s renewed focus are big reasons, but the play of cornerbacks Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph has been just as huge.

Two things to say here. 1) I like how you admit that the DBs are equal in value to other players, because that's pretty much the case, despite the fact that it conflicts with your argument. 2) You should look up the Bengals' linebacking corps. I think you may find that it's shockingly young, talented and responsible for great defense in the early goings of the season.

Earlier this season I wrote that the Broncos’ acquisition of Dawkins had made the biggest impact of any offseason free-agent signing. Certainly, Dawkins has played a major role in Denver’s 6-0 start and No. 1 ranking in scoring defense. However, I’d now have to concede that the Saints’ signing of former Vikings (and Packers) safety Darren Sharper was equally significant. With his third interception return for touchdown on Sunday – and the 11th of his career, one shy of Rod Woodson’s NFL record – Sharper did two things: Bolstered his Hall of Fame credentials (he’s definitely got a shot) and became the early frontrunner for NFL defensive player of the year honors. Oh, and New Orleans is also 6-0, and in a familiar place on our weekly list of queries.

I'm not disputing that Sharper or Dawkins are great. I just think it's funny how he's correlating the W-L records with individual dudes. If Ed Reed is so great, why is his team 3-3? If Bob Sanders is so valuable, how have the Colts gone undefeated without him? Hang on there's more of this reasoning coming...

The defending champion Steelers suffered their only two defeats while Polamalu was sidelined by a knee injury. Coincidence? I think not.

Troy wouldn't have missed those FGs in Chicago.

The Vikings, who started 6-0 before losing at Pittsburgh on Sunday, faced the Steelers without their most accomplished cornerback, Antoine Winfield, who reportedly has a fractured right foot. Winfield, a ferocious tackler despite his slight (5-foot-9, 180 pounds) frame, claims he might play in Sunday’s NFC North showdown with the Packers at Lambeau Field, though some reports peg his likely absence as four-to-six weeks. Even though the hype is about Brett Favre’s return to Green Bay, trust me, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a lot more concerned about the prospect of facing Winfield than he is his legendary predecessor.

Wrong! This is actually what is going on in Aaron Rodgers' head, right now:

"Ohmygod ohmygod ohmygod! Brett's coming for me! What will I do? I hate it when I'm supposed to be on the field throwing and Favre is out there.... alternating being on the field with me!! Also, Jared Allen has sacked me 6 times in 4 games for 2 safeties, I'm kind of worried about him."

Vikings game

2009-10-27T07:16:00.000-07:00

Real quick look back:

Ben was good enough to win. Judging by his body language he didn't look thrilled by his performance (it's humbling to be outscored by your defense), and judging by his throws, he didn't have his best stuff. Still, it was a very mature effort. He kept things where they needed to be, protected the football, and is looking better and better at no-huddle play calling (turn off Bruce's mic!).

The offensive line was dynamite. They allowed three sacks: one to a backup DT, one to a cornerback who chased Ben when he left the pocket, and one to the weakside linebacker. The fact that they pushed back Kevin and Pat Williams enough that our team average on the ground was 5.3 yards a carry... that screams legitimacy. Also: Max Starks completely neutralized Jared "best pass rusher in the league" Allen, all day long. On paper, this was a match made in hell. Allen is a super athletic, speed-rusher; Max Starks is Max Starks. However, they're also offseason workout buddies, so Max surprisingly has a leg up on most LTs when it comes to knowing Allen's moves. Amazing! One little critique of the O-line: the pull blocking wasn't able to extend to the flats on screen plays. This is because the Williams brothers were occupying the interior of our line.

Mendenhall got some pretty significant statements of support from Tomlin during the post-game. He's probably getting his ass handed to him right now. Bottom line: the dude's footwork is excellent, but he has to adjust his carrying technique.

Clark hits much harder than Polamalu. That's terrifying.

Losing Timmons was a shame. LeBeau was lining him and Farrior up all over the field, which shows his faith in Timmons' and Troy's health. I've said it before, Keyaron Fox is a sweet backup for that position. He's basically Larry Foote, only he talks less trash. We don't lose quality with him on the field (as seen by his game clinching pick-6), but we do lose blitz and coverage options.

I thought Hampton played a hell of a game. I've been critical of the big man for being old, but he pulled it together when we needed a run-stopper. How about that goal line stand? That says so much more than the defensive touchdowns. That we can deny the best RB in the game, when he's on our doorstop... wow.

Brett Keisel: huge game. I don't know how they let him penetrate into the backfield as much as he did, but that was a mistake.

William Gay getting steamrolled by Adrian Peterson may be the purest 2-seconds of football to come out of the entire league, this season.

We played a lot of inverted cover 2 from the nickel package. This isn't that unusual for us, it's basically just Troy coming down to man the slot receiver, and leaving the nickelback deep to play safety. The obvious advantage of this is that it utilizes Troy's run stopping ability closer to the line. Going back to the Peterson hit on Gay: it's not easy to stop a running back who weighs 20 to 40 pounds more than you, if you're a cornerback coming off the bench.

Hines Ward was like a squirrel storing up nuts for the winter, last week. Coming into the game as the league's leading receiver in yards, Ward only had 3 all afternoon.

Heath Miller is a bit over halfway towards going down as the greatest TE in franchise history. Not exactly the same thing as topping John Stallworth, Franco Harris or Rod Woodson... but still significant. For the record, I'm measuring greatness in receptions, yardage, and games played. The dude is a rock.

I'm surprised by how little the Vikings went to Peterson as a receiver in the flats. That would have diverted some of our linebackers to the corners of the field, which may have opened up a few holes over the middle for TEs.

This isn't my best analysis of a game, but it was the best game of our season, thus far. Physical and great.

WHAT!??!

2009-10-20T17:43:00.000-07:00

Coming into Week 7

2009-10-20T15:58:00.000-07:00

New England & Tampa Bay:
In 6 games, the New England Fuckturds have a +72 point differential, vs. Tampa Bay's -79. Everything about this game says blowout, and it really probably will be. However, the point difs are inflated by a couple choice games. Four of the Patriots' games have been decided by one score, and two for the Buccaneers. Here's hoping, Tampa Bay.

Minnesota & Pittsburgh
Minnesota's 6-0, with a +68, while we're 4-2 with a +28. The Vikings have the best RB in the game, in Adrian Peterson, a Hall of Fame QB with a 109.5 passer rating, and one of the best run defenses in the league. They seem like a team that isn't ready to lose. However, it's worth it to remember, four of their wins have come against the Browns, Lions, 49ers and Rams. They were also a field goal away from losing to the Ravens, and a TD drive away from losing to the Packers.

I've watched them play twice now, against the Browns and against the Packers. They've looked legit both times, especially in the game against Green Bay. I don't think it's all smoke and mirrors, but I do think they have about 5.5 legit games on their entire calendar, and this week is one of them.

San Francisco & Houston
No one cares about this game. For the record, the Texans are 3-3 with a +6, 49ers are 3-2 with a +14. San Fran is reaping the benefits of playing in the NFC West.

NY Jets & Oakland
I love to say I'm right about everything, and what the heck: I am! Poor Jets, started out 3-0, are now 3-3 with a +10. Worse yet, their star NT is out for the season, and Mark Sanchez has thrown 8 picks in the last 3 weeks. Meanwhile the Raiders are hot as hell, coming in from their latest victory against the Eagles with a 2-4 record and a -77 dif. I'm picking the Jets to rebound, call me crazy.

Chicago & Cincinnati
Wow, Cinci went from encouraging to depressing fast. They're still 4-2, but their slightly positive point dif has eroded to break-even zero. They also lost everyone on their defensive line to injury. This is why it's important to wait until round two of the divisional games, before picking someone to win the AFC North. The Bears meanwhile are 3-2 with a +20. I said it before, I'll say it again: good spoiler team. Not good enough to win anything for themselves, but good enough to keep others from making strides. Cinci's having a charmed season and could beat these nimrods, but I think the Bears will be fielding a slightly better team on Sunday.

Atlanta & Dallas
The Falcons are good. Not grab you by the junk and throw you down the lane to pick up the 7-10 spare good. But good. 4-1, +46. The Cowboys are 3-2, +24. Pretty much the same shit as last year. Talented but mistake prone.

Philadelphia & Washington
More in the way of bullshitters. The Eagles are a good team that can do something ridiculous, like lose to the Raiders. The Redskins are a decent team that can play well below expectations and lose to everyone who's bad (except for TB, they eeked that one out, somehow). Eagles: 3-2, +24. 'Skins: 2-4, -17.

Indianapolis & St. Louis:
Colts: 5-0, +66. Rams: 0-6, -115. Colts after week 7: 6-0, +86.

San Diego & Kansas City:
Chargers: 2-3, -12. Chiefs: 1-5, -46. Has to be Chargers, or else Norvolt is out of a job.

Green Bay & Cleveland
Packers: 3-2, +37. Browns: 1-5, -79. The way Green Bay ran their 3-4 against Cleveland in the preseason made me think they were going to be the team to beat. I still think they're the sleeping giants of the NFC. I expect mild carnage.

Buffalo & Carolina
Bills: 2-4, -36. Panthers: 2-3, -40. Battle of mediocrity.

New Orleans & Miami
Saints: 5-0, +99. Dolphins: 2-3, +6. I think this is potentially a good matchup for the 'Phins. Their starting QB is out for the year, they love to run the WILDcat (it's WILD!) and they're all about ball control. If you look at the Saints' stats on the year, you see they've out-passed opponents 992 yards to 848, but thrown only 129 times to their opponents 152. On the ground, it's much different: Norleans has 665 on 134 attempts, vs. 333 yards on 90 tries. This tells me they're getting really good at shoving points in the other guy's face, and then forcing him to throw to keep pace. They then prey on that one-dimensional game and manufacture interceptions. The Dolphins are definitely the inferior team, and could take a huge beating; but still, I wouldn't be surprised if they kept things closer than they should be. They certainly did that when they played the Colts, which is a similar system to the Saints.

Arizona & NY Giants
Giants: 5-1, +59, Cardinals: 3-2, +20. I'm kind of shocked the defending NFC Champs are doing so well. It's what comes of playing in the NFC West, I guess. What's interesting is that they're ranked 15th in total offense, and 8th in total defense. This can probably be attributed to the ineptness of the Seahawks, who only racked up 128 total yards last Sunday.

Bye week teams:
Denver
They're a lock to win the division, and their win over the Pats is probably what inspired douchebag-of-the-century to run up the score against the Titans. I still don't think much of Denver. And I won't until they show me something against the Ravens, Steelers, Giants and Colts.

Detroit
They beat the Redskins!

Tennessee
Take as much time as you guys need.

Seriously, the only team that fears them: the Redskins.

Seattle
Meh. Mediocre at very best. Most likely just crap.

Jacksonville
Never underestimate the Jaguars. They are always a team to respect. They're -27 and probably getting worse, but they're still a team that can spoil your Sunday.

Baltimore
Oh fuck these guys. 3-3, +39. Lost because of some bullshit calls by the officials in New England; lost by a FG to Cinci; lost by a missed FG to Minnesota. They're coming out of their bye week mad as hell, and if they can't beat Denver in that state, we'll know a ton about both teams.

Addendum to last post

2009-10-20T08:18:00.000-07:00

I'm very against NFL regular season games being exported internationally. However, I'm okay with this. I think it's best that the Patriots get the fuck up out of here, and go be cocks in front of someone else.

Bill Belichick

2009-10-20T05:25:00.000-07:00

Is a total dickbag.

That said, the Titans shouldn't have stomped on the Terrible Towel.

Myron, I hope your work is done. They really can't take much more of this.

Quick Review of the Browns Game

2009-10-19T10:24:00.000-07:00

Overall, wasn't that good of a football game. Penalties, bad calls, fumbles, and just a sense that we were playing down to the lack of competition. But a W is a W, and W against these clowns is always good.

Ben looked fantastic. The ONLY blemish was that terrible throw that got picked by Brodney Pool. I have no explanation for that one. It wasn't an issue of mechanics, or the ball being tipped, or even the route being run poorly. Ben simply threw the ball past his receiver and into the safety's coverage.

Run game looked bad! Don't like this! Don't like this at all! Yes, we put up 140 yards on the ground and had a 3.9 average. But those numbers don't begin to tell the whole story. Take out Willie's longest run (9 yards) and he's down to a 2.83 average; Mendenhall sinks to a 3.1 without his longest carry of 11 yards. Those wouldn't be AWFUL numbers, except that both guys committed fumbles. Mendenhall pumps his arms wider than anyone I've ever seen, and I just think fumble when I look at him. Willie looked mostly pathetic. Mewelde Moore was encouraging towards the end; I have a feeling he could get some more touches going against his old team next week. Finally, I'd say give some credit to the Browns D-line. Their nose tackle is awesome, and they're getting better at clogging things up at the point of attack. Still, we need to be able to overcome that, because we'll be seeing only good D-lines down the stretch.

Our D-line wasn't too shabby at all. Tomlin didn't want to lavish praise on Kirschke and Eason in his press conference, but he has to be pleased with what they brought in lieu of #91. Thought it was interesting that LeBeau didn't dump anything from the 1-5. He just line Kirschke up at the point, and let it rip.

Wow did it rip! Our linebackers are so goddamn scary! Farrior and Timmons played out of their minds, and I think that had to do with Troy being back. Both of them could move around and line up on the edges outside of Woodley and Harrison, because Troy was available to cover the middle zone or flats. That one blitz we ran, which resulted in the first forced fumble... that was the fastest pass rush I have ever seen, bar none. It was shocking, completely shocking that men can move that quickly. All four backers got to the QB.

Ike Taylor was playing a very soft zone on Massaquoi, which allowed him to make some catches. The game plan there was pretty much just that: make him make the catches. The Browns came into the game incapable of catching the ball. It was smart to play behind them until they proved otherwise.

Skippy looked good. Then got cited for being a drunk. He may have a serious problem. The kind that doesn't look good in a contract year.

Aaron Smith out with shoulder injury

2009-10-13T15:07:00.000-07:00

Tomlin says it "potentially could be serious."

Sometimes I hate being right about everything, but this is what I was talking about when I said we were on sweet, beautiful borrowed time all through last year. It's what it means when we say our D-line is getting old.

We're starting to resemble the 2007 Steelers, what with Ben having an awesome year as a passer, Willie being injured, Troy being injured (in the exact same way as he was in 2007), and now Smith going down. What's next, a no-call on an obvious hold that springs David Garrard for a huge run into field goal distance and ends our new coach's rookie season? Probably.

Fuck.

Post #200

2009-10-12T09:01:00.001-07:00

When this started out, I had no intention of cracking the 200 post mark. I was shooting for 78. Honestly, I'm humbled and amazed by myself.

Enough blogwash-- on to something football.

Saw this article. Decided to skim it. Realized it was just a list, and not actual, like anything. But here, let's look at a couple key points.

Knowing that Brett Favre, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford will each face the other three twice this year — and possibly for several years to come — suggests a number of phenomenal air shows could be in store for fans of their clubs.

Decent chance Stafford will be benched or injured. Decent chance Favre will be injured or held out against the Lions. More interesting QB division: the one with Manning, McNabb, Vick, Kolb, Romo, and Campbell (I guess).

Beyond the promise of that story, though, I’ve found myself staring at the NFL passer ratings this past week and trying to remember a time when there were as many current stars and promising prospects at the game’s most important position. Accepting that quarterback is the hardest position to develop and that franchise quarterbacks are the rarest of commodities, has the future of the position ever been brighter?

Listen, Hub (the guy who wrote this is named Hub Arkush!), the position has changed. A lot. The reason you're seeing such a spike in passer rating is because that's the premium standard now expected from QBs. It's much more of a passer's game with more intricate offenses and defenses than just 20 years ago.

He goes on to say that Favre, Peyton and Brady are all no doubt hall of famers, and maybe possible so is Warner. True. Then:

At the next level, Drew Brees and Donovan McNabb have done substantial work on their résumés for Canton but are probably in need of a ring or two — or at least a couple more games in which they play for one — and possibly a couple more trips to Hawaii before their Hall of Fame tickets are punched.

Drew Brees?? Really? He's sort of putting on a huge show with the Saints right now, and maybe he'll have a second and third act to his career like Warner did, but as far as his career thus far, he's done as much as Daunte Culpepper. So yes, I'd say Drew Brees is in need of a ring or two.

Then Hub writes this mouthful:

There are 31 quarterbacks in Canton already, and their careers spanned 1920-2000. If Warner, Brees and McNabb join Favre, Manning and Brady in Canton, we will have been blessed to watch six Hall of Fame quarterbacks all in their primes at the same time. The only other points in history that can match that are 1971, when Len Dawson, Bob Griese, Joe Namath, Fran Tarkenton, Sonny Jurgensen, Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach and Bart Starr were all still playing (although Jurgensen, Unitas and Starr were just about done, and Namath’s knees were already starting to fail), and 1990-94, when Steve Young, Warren Moon, Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly, John Elway, Dan Marino and Joe Montana were all still going strong, with only Montana on the back side of the hill.

To sum up: there are like 4.5 definite Hall-of-Famers playing right now. This has happened before.

But here’s what makes today so interesting.

Right, so he agrees with me that the previous 128 words weren't insightful.

In 1971, only Terry Bradshaw and Dan Fouts were waiting in the wings, and in the early ’90s, Favre was the only youngster beginning his Hall of Fame run. Today, some might argue that Ben Roethlisberger already rates with Brees and McNabb, that Eli Manning and Philip Rivers are off to very fast starts, and that Carson Palmer has “stud” written all over him if he can just stay healthy.

Oh my god ranking active quarterbacks is such a stupid exercise! I do appreciate the quote marks around stud. Either people are being tentative and maybe even facetious when applying that label to Palmer, or they're being exact, like when you google a precise phrase.

It’s way too early to pull the trigger on whether Stafford and Mark Sanchez can join them, but the early returns are promising.

What early returns? That these guys got drafted high? Matt Stafford has thrown 6 picks in 4 games. I'm not saying he's doomed to be a bad QB, and I'm not even saying he won't go on to become the greatest QB of all time. I am saying that there have been exactly no positive early returns.

Rounding all this out are a couple of veterans in Matt Hasselbeck and Kerry Collins, who may still compete for a ring, and a few more kids like Brady Quinn, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb and Derek Anderson, whom we just don’t know enough about yet but who’ve shown flashes.

What's most significant is that this is the first era where quarterbacks come in list form.

Hasselbeck-- competed for a ring, lost to the Steelers. Decent, system arm. Nothing special.
Kerry Collins-- bad. Plays for an 0-5 team, is 37.
Brady Quinn-- bad.
Jason Campbell-- shockingly mediocre.
Kyle Orton-- Will be coming back down to earth with a vengeance.
Kevin Kolb-- Interesting prospect, has McNabb and Vick in front of him (btw: where's Vick in all this? Hub hasn't mentioned him. Probably because he's just been looking at passer rating).
Derek Anderson-- bad. Went 2 for 17 for 23 yards yesterday. Yes. That's right. 2 for 17 for 23 yards against that vaunted Bills secondary.

Here, I'll make this real simple. This is why the QBs of previous eras didn't put together such impressive careers. This is why today's QBs are able to do so much more.

The position has changed. If you want to say someone like Peyton Manning is the greatest passer of all time, I can accept that. I wouldn't make any claims about the position though.

p.s. Here's another look at the Turkey Jones hit on Bradshaw. The image of Jack Lambert that follows is the best thing ever.

So much football happened for your birthday!

2009-10-11T21:07:00.000-07:00

The Broncos beat the Pats!

The Bengals beat the Ravens!

The Browns... won a game!....?

The Redskins lost to another 0-and-... team!

The Titans are 0-5!

The Vikings, Colts, Broncos and Giants are 5-0!

The Saints and Jets didn't play today so their respective fanbases can remain excited!

And the Steelers beat the Lions, hurrah!

-----------

A lot of folks called in to the Steelers' postgame show complaining that we only won by 8 today, and that the Lions shouldn't have been able to score 20 points off our defense. To be fair to the Lions, they've scored 103 points in 5 games now. That's not at all bad. It's not elite, but by comparison, the New England Patriots have only scored 104, the Bengals 101, and the Steelers 113. Detroit is a team that can put up 3 TDs worth of points a week. What can't they do? Make those points meaningful. As you saw, the penalties, turnovers and inability to seal the deal on a drive made for a game that really wasn't as close as the scoreboard made it look. Let's also backtrack the criticism on our defense.... 7 of those 20 points were thanks to a really cocky, terrible throw by Roethlisberger. Was the D in vintage 1976 Steel Curtain form? Not quite. Were they the better team when they needed to be? Absolutely.

Let's talk a bit about Ben.

He's really in his element this year, completing passes at a phenomenally high percentage, and doing his thing to keep drives alive. Basically, everyone's looking more confident in running routes for him than ever before. However, I was pretty disappointed with some of the decisions he made today. He forced a throw, got picked, and was only let off the hook after a late hit penalty. Then he was picked again after forcing a throw. Then he chucked that beautifully high bomb to Wallace, which probably should have at least been contested, had the safety on the play been ... like... I don't know... half competent. Ben is the most valuable player on the team right now, but I hate to see him getting fast a loose, and then getting burnt. What I did like was how professionally he led the other players back onto the field after the pick-6. He threw the Wallace ball, which I thought was fat, but other than that, his decision making and confidence level was that of someone who wasn't letting a mistake linger in his memory.

Heath is so good. He's on pace to get 90 receptions this year. I started saying this at the game, I'll say it again: his style has evolved for the better in the last 5 seasons. If you go back and watch tape of the 2005 season, rookie Heath can be seen sprinting post routes and corners, almost like Dallas Clark does. Then, as soon as he'd receive the ball he'd fall dead on the spot. At some point in his career, he must have realized that he's a slow man. And being a slow man, he'd be easy enough to cover on those post and corner routes, and that the only reason teams weren't covering him was because he was an unknown rookie. Now, as you know, he plays much closer to the line, releasing up into space among the linebackers. Rarely will you see him motion to Ben that he's open. Receivers do this to draw attention to themselves with the idea that by the time the DBs see them, the QB will have gotten the ball out in space. Heath doesn't do it because it would tip his hand way too fast, and defenders would flow to him before he could get his first step after the catch. And what a first step it's becoming! That's the best thing to watch: Miller is all of a sudden a downhill runner with the ball.

James Harrison's father is so scary.

You know how every week we hear from the TV about how crazy complex Dick LeBeau's blitz schemes are? I'd like to think I've got a pretty good eye for these things, but maybe I'm just wrong here: last couple of games, I haven't seen much in the way of exotic blitzes. This week was the first game that he really dug into the 1-5 playbook and brought some pressure from unexpected places. Specifically, he was running a 1-5 crash, which probably exchanged Deshea Townsend for William Gay on the coverage. Typically, when we blitz a corner, it's Deshea who's coming. Today it was Gay, and that extra element off the edge was enough to disrupt the pass blocking so that Culpepper found himself stepping up into the sack.

Ziggy Hood looks so powerful; didn't impress me with his follow through, letting Culpepper escape when he had a tackle within arm's reach. I'd like to see him paired up with Smith. Eventually, he should be better than #91, but right now he needs to strike the balance between pass rusher and run stopper, because that's how you get sacks as a lineman in our system.

A word on the Titans

2009-10-06T09:25:00.000-07:00

Things are bad.

Curse of Cope, etc. Also the fact that they're trusting Kerry Collins' arm, and downgraded the defense in the off-season.

Greg asked me for my thoughts pre-opening night. I said the Tennessee franchise would be okay, but that they'd take a little hit this year. That's been true so far, but it could be more than just a little hit, very soon. The Titans are up against the Colts and Pats in the next two weeks. After that it should get a bit easier, but "should get easier" is not the same thing as "you didn't really go 0-6 to start the season, it was all a dream!" Hopefully for them, they can win at least one, if not both their next two games, because what's more, they'd be 0-3 against their division before reaching the bye if they can't.

What happened?

Well, there were probably some smoke and mirrors at work last year. They played a lot of teams close and took home some blowouts to inflate their point differentials.

They also just had one of those special years, where they were more than the sum of their parts. This happens sometimes, especially with lines (I suppose it happens in Pittsburgh with our linebackers). The trick to sustaining it is player retention, and they lost their centerpiece, Albert Haynesworth. This was probably the healthiest move for the franchise, just like us letting Alan Faneca depart was the right move long-term. However, as you recall from our own experiences, losing veteran linemen absolutely fucks everything ever, in the short-term.

I thought they did a pretty great job on opening night this year, plugging the running gaps, and allowing no room for our ground game. However, what they lack now is that pass rush that comes from the middle. Watching the current Steelers, we don't get a sense of how a DT can pass rush, but seeing someone like Haynesworth (or even going back and watching footage of Joe Greene), it's so freaking cool to see a guy completely collapse the pocket by attacking it head on. The Titans can't do that anymore, and must rely entirely on the aging DEs to create the pass rush from the edges. Jevon Kearse is one of the great DEs ever, but he's an old 33; Kyle Vanden Bosch is 31. This isn't like Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel being in their 30s, it's like James Harrison having 10 years worth of miles on him and LaMarr Woodley having 7.

Less pass rush means less gifts to the DBs. The Titans secondary came out of nowhere last year, producing interceptions at will. This was absolutely a result of QBs being pressured. Expect less takeaways all around.

And expect more giveaways. Without the defensive efficiency, Tennessee won't be able to put the game on cruise control with their very good, very promising running prospect, Chris Johnson. Lendale White is a douchebag, and the Titans fans I know don't like him. Johnson is the real deal. He's got speed and great vision for making cuts. His O-line lets him run inside if he wants to, but he'll challenge outside the tackles whenever he wants. He is the reason I say the franchise is going to be okay.

Kerry Collins is the reason I say the immediate future isn't a lock for success. I just don't get how analysts can get on board with a guy who outperforms his career numbers when he's in his late 30s. That's called a fluke, in any sport. It almost reminds me of this terrible relief pitcher, Joe Borowski, who in 2007 led the American League in saves, never mind the fact that he had a 5.07 ERA that year and was 36 years old. I said it then about him, and I said it last year about Kerry Collins: the good times aren't going to last. JoeBo came into the next season throwing 80 mph fastballs, and a couple blown saves later (the final one involving a Manny Ramirez home run, where Manny remarked "that was the heat?? I thought I had hit a changeup!") he was off the team. I don't think Collins was quite that big of a fraud last year, and I doubt he'll get cut by midseason... but... he is going to regress to his mean and probably beyond. A mediocre athlete doesn't just lock-in at age 37 and start getting better. His lifetime passer rating is 73.7 (or 93 relative to a league adjusted average of 100). Last year it was 80.2 (or 97 relative to league). This year it's 68.9 (84). As I said above, unless the defense can keep opponents down, Collins is going to be passing more, which is going to result in more giveaways. Bad news for the Titans.

Vince Young is the other option at QB. He's fast on his feet, presumably competent as a passer and leader... but kind of a huge head case. Went missing for several days after having a mental breakdown last year, and Jeff Fisher had to find him and take him to his therapist. A lot of people want Young to succeed because he has all the raw tools and a developed fan base thanks to college heroics. However, it's questionable as to whether he's got the mental resources and young supporting cast he needs to take the job.

Bottom line: I doubt the Titans will make the playoffs. I'm not saying they're a bad team, but statistically speaking, the likelihood of an 0-4 team squeaking into the postseason is super slim. I'd describe Tennessee as a pretty good team where everything is lining up wrong-- as opposed to last year where they were only a pretty good team and everything happened to lining up just right (until, of course, they stomped on something they shouldn't have; yoi). This isn't a lost season for them, because I do think they could still get in some entertaining, competitive football; they just won't be able to dictate things week in and week out.

The Chargers must really hate us by now

2009-10-05T10:35:00.000-07:00

L.T. has averaged only 3.35 yards a carry against us in his career (terrible for the man with a 4.4 career y/c).

The Steelers have beat the Chargers 8 out of 9 times since 1995.

This actually happened.

In their franchise history, San Diego is 6-21 against us. The only opponents they have a worse winning percentage against are Atlanta (1-7) and Green Bay (1-8).

The Chargers traded us the draft pick used to select Troy Polamalu.

This also happened.

The Chargers have rushed for a combined 97 yards, the last three times they've played us.

More to come later. Actually analysis, etc.

pre-game look at the Chargers

2009-10-04T09:59:00.000-07:00

San Diego is always fun to play. They give us a good game every time, and present pretty unique challenges for our defense.

The main thing to remember about their offense is the size thing. Running back Darren Sproles is itsy bitsy, while wide out Vincent Jackson is 6'5" and tight end Antonio Gates is 6'4". None of them are particularly fast, but they're all quick, and they're all excellent at playing to their size. Sproles has been off to a slow start on the ground this year, but he has a deceptively strong break tackle in the open field, and he can receive out of the backfield. You'll hear both Jackson and Gates compared to basketball players. This is apt; they're both excellent at body positioning and playing for the jump ball on fade routes. Gates in fact played basketball, and is the third guy in our set of undrafted pro-bowlers out of Kent State (James Harrison and Josh Cribbs being the other two).

The defense is a 3-4, but San Diego is missing their nose tackle. Their corners are also spotty at times, so some clever pass patterns combined with hard nosed football at the line should be effective.

Ladainian Tomlinson was the best player in the game a few years ago. Now he's back and forth between the disabled list and the field. When he's healthy he's awesome. It's likely we'll be seeing him. I expect them to assign a safety to spy LT whenever he's on the field.

A word on the Jets

2009-10-03T22:06:00.000-07:00

Everybody calm down.

The Jets are pretty good. Why is this THAT surprising, or THAT significant?

Let me answer why it's neither, point by point.

The Jets are pretty good, but this isn't surprising. Two years ago, we played them in that snowy mess of a game, where they ran for 151 yards (in fact, they had Thomas Jones break the 100 yard mark, which was a really big deal coming against our defense). At that point, I said "these guys are going to be good spoilers in the near future." Sure enough, they spoiled things for themselves and the New England Patriots in 2008. This, after acquiring major upgrades on both lines in the form of Alan Faneca and Kris Jenkins.

They also got Brett Favre. To this I said: whatever. Honestly, I think they could have done everything they did last year with Chad Pennington under center. The roster had become extremely solidified with the FA linemen signings, and the fundamentals of good defense and good running were there.

Anyway, last season they beat the Patriots, and they beat the (at the time, unbeaten) Titans. They didn't play Houston, but likely would have kicked the crap out of them.

Then, in the offseason, the Jets fired Eric Mangini and Brett Favre. Favre went to a system that actually did need him, Mangini went to a system that actually needs to be disbanded. However... disbanded it was not. Instead, Mangini had the bright idea of trading down in the draft to get veteran players from the Jets. Eric Barton (32 years old), David Bowens (32), Kenyon Coleman (30), and Abram Elam (27). All pretty much washed up and replaced by better players via free agency.

The Jets used that better draft pick from the Browns to select their franchise quarterback, Mark Sanchez. He's absolutely been gifted the best O-line a young QB could have, so it's kind of fair to expect him to be comfortable, even as a rookie.

On top of all that, they have a new coach. Rex Ryan seems to know what he wants, and the man seems to know how to "woo!"

So, anyway, none of this should be THAT surprising. They've won three games. Two of which came against good teams that they beat last year (granted, NE was Bradyless last year, but Tennessee is Haynesworthless now, plus they're being spooked by the ghost of Myron Cope).

On to point two: this isn't THAT significant. Just wait for the Jets to drop one to the Bills, and then all the buzz will be back on the Giants (also 3-0, most likely a far better team).

The Jets are pretty good. They're not better than the Colts, Ravens or Patriots until they beat those teams down the stretch.

Mistakes! Mistakes! Mistakes!

2009-09-27T19:55:00.000-07:00

We lost as a team today. Almost everyone had something to do with it. Let's review:

Pass game:
Santonio dropped some balls. Santonio and Ben had a communication breakdown, where Tone ran a streak and Ben threw a curl. Picked off and returned for 6. Ward got flagged downfield. Maybe it was ticky-tacky, but it counted for penalty yards all the same. Sweed dropped a touchdown.

Run game:
Willie ran for 93 yards on 25 carries, but only 69 on 24 carries. That's a 2.9 average outside of his big run. Better than the 1.8 bullshit we saw last two games, but still not the put-'em-away running we expect when we've got the lead. This isn't exclusively Parker's fault; the O-line has to be ready to run block late in the game. Also, the lack of Mendenhall was a coaching choice. Apparently Rashard did something to displease Tomlin during the week.

Coaching:
I can understand kicking the FG on 4th and 1, on their 1... but not if you're then going to go for it on 4th and 4 with 1:06 left in the half, on their 35 yard line. 4 points we didn't get in the former scenario, 3 points they did get in the latter. Are we guaranteed better outcomes with different decisions? No. But a 1-yard conversion is a higher percentage play, and I'd like to see more consistency in those decisions.

Defense:
The pass rushing wasn't effective. Casey Hampton got a sack, which means one of two things: either he broke through some blocks, or Cincinnati wasn't bothering to block him. I'd like to think it was the former, but if it was, we'd see a lot more penetration by Smith and Keisel. What's more likely, is that on passing plays the Bengals line was splitting at the center to seal up the edges, neutralizing the DEs and OLBs. That would leave the nose tackle and anyone outside an outside linebacker free. We saw Timmons get some decent pressure on Palmer when he'd line up outside Harrison or Woodley, yet, Palmer was prepared for this weakness in the blocking, and made some quick release incomplete passes when he saw Timmons coming. The couple times he saw Hampton get free, he'd either step aside at a leisurely pace, or on one occasion get sacked. This is an entirely great plan for handling our pass rush. You know that someone will get through, and if you can limit that someone from being James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, Brett Keisel, and Aaron Smith, you're doing yourself a huge favor. As it was, Harrison did get a sack, but it was more of a scramble-stopping tackle than a true hit on the passer.

I haven't been terribly impressed by the way Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel have looked so far. Maybe this has something to do with what I mentioned above, re: Hampton no longer being double teamed. Or maybe #99 and #91 had incredible seasons last year, and aren't quite able to replicate that level of dominance as they age. I said then that we were playing on borrowed time. I wonder if we'll see Ziggy Hood infused into that starting D-line sooner than later, just to give them some punch. As it stands now, Keisel and Smith get beat up in the 3-4 because the blockers are selling out to cover them; then, they're winded by the time we get to the 2-4, and neither has been able to knife into the interior of the O-line. I know Smith likes to be out there for every down, but he looked terrible coming out of the three point stance on a couple passing downs late in the game. Just sort of slow and top heavy, as if his coming upright had to happen before he could start moving forward-- which kind of defeats the purpose of playing in the three point stance.

The good news about the D-line is that they're entirely capable of stopping up the run... for about two and a half quarters. Everything I said about the blocking neutralizing our front 3 is only in regards to pass blocking. It's still ridiculously hard to run block Casey Hampton, because to run block, you have to push the defender backwards, as opposed to letting him come to you. Where we break down is late in the game. I don't know if this is stamina, or them running at us when we're looking pass; maybe a bit of both. It definitely comes in bursts, where one 5 yard gain is followed by another, to the point that we can't get off the field without letting them score. This is where we miss Troy. Having that playmaker who can shut someone down in space, instead of letting them gain momentum... that's huge when trying to put the other team away.

The Bengals played a good game. We don't deserve to win if we're going to make mistakes. Doesn't matter how good we should be, or how much talent is on the roster-- championship caliber teams don't make these kinds of mistakes. We are not a championship caliber team.

It's a Mike Florio Friday

2009-09-25T12:44:00.000-07:00

Sha-bang!

1. At some point, Quinn needs to get benched

The Cleveland Browns are bad. Through two weeks, they've been manhandled by a very good Vikings team and steamrolled by a mediocre-at-best band of Broncos.

Starting quarterback Brady Quinn hasn't been good. Regarded as superior to Derek Anderson when it comes to throwing short, accurate passes, Quinn has a passer rating through two games of 66.9.

Everything thus far is true. We're a shocking 65 words in without incident.

At some point, the Browns need to see what Anderson can do.

And then out of nowhere, after five sentences of pump fakes, Mike Florio lays that on us.

At some point.

The Browns needs to see what Anderson can do.

!!

In case you've been in a cave for the last few years, far removed from the AFC North's soap operas, here, visit this link to understand why Mike Florio is crazy. There are also legions of articles in which sports writers everywhere opined that the Browns should let Quinn start, simply on the basis that the team already knows what Anderson can do and it's not impressive. Just google "quinn, anderson, 2007, preseason 2008, 2008, preseason 2009."

Last year, Browns Executive Advisor Jim Brown was openly advising the executives to bench Anderson and give Quinn a chance, if for no reason other than to find out what Quinn can do.

Last year, Derek Anderson was the starter. He was the starter in 2007. He has made a total of 27 starts in 3 years for the Browns. He was good in like 5 of them.

Jim Brown was arguably, the greatest football player in history; calling him an "Executive Advisor" is like referring to Paul McCartney as "the bassist from Wings."

In 2008, Jim Brown and everyone ever was mystified that the Browns wouldn't give Brady Quinn (for whom they traded up to draft in the first round) a chance to start, even though they had seen Anderson TWENTY unimpressive times before that.

The same reasoning applies a year later, in reverse. The Browns need to know whether Anderson can do a better job, and they should do it before it's too late for Anderson or anyone else to make a difference.

Mike Florio has just gone up to 11.

2. AFC West gets interesting

Before the season started, some expected the Chargers to win the AFC West by 10 or more games.

Who? Who the fuck thought that?

But then the season started.

And everything Mike Florio thought was wrong.

The Chargers nearly lost to the Raiders and then, strewn with injuries, the Chargers fell at home to the Ravens.

The Ravens are an excellent team. So are the Steelers, Giants, Eagles, and Titans. There are also a lot of terrible teams on queue for San Diego. What's your point? The Chargers are still a good team, Denver's a little better/luckier than was expected.

This week, San Diego faces a Miami team that is desperate for a win.

Cleveland is desperate for a win. Think Baltimore is worried?

Complicating matters is the fact the Dolphins might run the ball right into the weak spot on the San Diego defense, thanks to the loss of nose tackle Jamal Williams for the year.

Go here. Scroll down to #5 on that list. I'm right about everything.

Even if the Chargers avoid losing another game in a stadium that they're struggling to sell out on a consistent basis, the improved Raiders' defense and the ability of their offense to move the ball when the game is on the line means the AFC West won't be as easy for the Chargers as once believed.

Yeah, I'm sure the Bolts are really pissing themselves, thinking about Oakland (whom they already beat this year).

And don't rule out the Broncos, either.

Damnit, Mike Florio, you want me to be concerned with both the Raiders AND the Broncos? Why? Are they 2-0 or something?

Regardless of whether their wins were pretty (they weren't) or came against high-end teams (they didn't), the Broncos have two wins in the bag, and they're currently one game ahead of the team that was supposed to lap the rest of the field.

Twice.

Only thing to say there is that the Bengals are probably better than scrubs, and for the Broncos to be in a position where they could take a fluke win, that says something for their own caliber of play.

3. Titans facing real trouble

Tennessee won 13 of 15 games to start the 2008 season. But that 13th win ended up being extremely unlucky.

Why? Did it come at the expense of losing their quarterback?

More than nine months later, they're still stuck on it.

Yeah, Chris Johnson has never been the same since beating the Steelers.

They lost a meaningless regular-season finale to the Colts, via a 23-0 shutout. Then the Titans lost a playoff game at home to the Ravens.

The meaningless regular-season finale involved scrub players standing in for the starters, while the Colts battled their asses off to get a playoff spot. The game against the Ravens was highly competitive, and the Ravens proved to be a superior team.

Then the Titans started the '09 season with a loss to the Steelers.

The Steelers proved to be highly competitive.

Then the Titans returned home to lose to the Texans.

The Titans defense disappeared.

Now Tennessee has to go to New York, to face a Jets team coached by the man who drew up the defensive game plan the Ravens used to beat the Titans in the 2008 playoffs.

Rex Ryan will not be allowed to draw up Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed on Sunday.

The Titans are feeling the pressure. Players are pointing fingers at coaches, coaches are pointing fingers at players, the head coach gets angry on a local TV station, and no one is stomping on any other teams' towels.

Oh! That's what this is about. A silly thing we joke about in Pittsburgh.

Actually, the train went off the rails for the Titans when tailback LenDale White saw fit to disrespect the Terrible Towel. So maybe, just maybe, the franchise that is only one loss away from matching last year's regular season has now gotten itself cursed, thanks to the spirit of Myron Cope.

I'd like to think so. It's much easier than thinking a good team got beat by several other good teams, and is feeling a little bit of a let down without DT Albert Haynesworth. It'll also explain why Kerry Collins, a 37 year old QB with a passer rating of 73.9 regresses from his 2008 performance. Man, I love Myron Cope, and hate legitimate sports analysis (true, false; respectively).

4. Has the Wildcat hurt the Dolphins?

Much has been said regarding the stress the Wildcat offense puts on opposing defenses. Not only during games, but also during practice.

Teams now must spend precious on-field time preparing both for the base offense, and for the Wildcat attack.

It's honestly just another formation. It's like spending time preparing for a mobile QB or a spread offense. There isn't anything more to it than that.

But honing the Wildcat attack apparently comes with a price, too. For the Dolphins, they lack the ability to get the ball down the field in large chunks and, based on Monday night's final drive against the Colts, they have not spent nearly enough time working on the two-minute drill.

Okay, you're an idiot, Mike Florio.

In case you didn't see it, Monday night's game was awesome. The Fins did this amazing job of ball control, limiting the Colts to less than ONE QUARTER's worth of minutes. The Colts in fact set a record for the least T.O.P. for a winning team.

How did the Colts win? By scoring amazingly fast. They have this guy named Peyton Manning, and he's got like 9 receivers on any given play, and all of them can burn. For example, on the very first play of the game, Manning threw an 80 yard TD pass to TE Dallas Clark. He's very good at that.

Not many people are. That the Dolphins should be held to his standard of quick scoring drives-- it's nuts. The Wildcat absolutely devastated the Colts D-line. My heart went out to Dwight Freeny when I saw how exhausted he was, having to be be out on the field for 45+ minutes, chasing down one 9 yard gain after another.

At one point as the clock was winding closer to zero, colon, zero, zero, the Dolphins called a play that began with a fake handoff.

Zero, colon, zero, zero isn't for effect. It's how Mike Florio tells time on his digital watch. Hey, Mike Florio, what time is it? "Four, colon, five, eight."

A fake handoff. On a winding clock late in the game.

Oh yeah, you're a guy who's earned the right to be derisive.

Maybe the Fins should spend a little less time on a gadget offense that produces decent results and more time on vital aspects of the game, like getting in position to score points with the game on the line.

Yeah, that's what they should do. Not spend a little more time on a defense that allows 356 yards in under 15 minutes of game time.

5. Peterson needs to be more careful

Our pal Drew Magary of Deadspin and various other joints made a good point recently regarding Vikings running back Adrian Peterson.

Name drop!

Peterson is going to potentially get himself seriously injured, or worse, if his obsession with embracing contact continues to include using his helmet like a battering ram.

Other things that may injure Adrian Peterson: football.

Twice on Sunday against the Lions, Peterson did a full-speed front-side limbo, banging hats with those who were trying to tackle him.

He is a running back. They do have very short shelf lives because of the poundings they're involved in. This is how it works.

Someone needs to explain to him the very bad things that can happen when the C3 and/or C4 bones in the spine break.

Mike Florio loves himself some Web MD.

Then there's Adrian's habit of taking off his helmet in and around the field of play. He did it against the Lions after one of his head-to-head collisions, and he did it last year after scoring a game-changing touchdown against the Packers.

Dear god! Someone start a watchdog blog! This is legitimate news!

Sooner or later, an official is going to have the nerve to throw a flag on this.

What Adrian Peterson really needs to worry about is, when sooner or later, that official throws a crackback block on his un-helmeted head, breaking his C3 and/or C4 bones. Flag be damned, that shit hurts!

Then again, given the way the guy plays, maybe no one never will.

That's Mike Florio speak for: sorry I just wasted your time, but I get paid for it.

6. Haynesworth could have a chip on his shoulder this weekend

He could. Not saying he's going to. But he could.

Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth spent the 2007 and '08 seasons playing for a big-money contract.

Not the chance to take his team to a 13-3 record and beyond.

Now that he has one, the question is whether he'll still have the same fire he displayed the past two years.

No, the question is whether he'll still be healthy and mobile over the next SEVEN years.

One team against which he'd have some extra motivation is the Titans, since they opted not to pay him when they had him. But since the Redskins don't play the Titans this year, revenge will have to wait.

Huh. So... I guess there's no chip on his shoulder to be had?

This weekend, the 'Skins play the Lions.

Wow was I wrong about that! This game is totally the Super Bowl for Albert Haynesworth.

Detroit coach Jim Schwartz had been the defensive coordinator of the Titans for all of Haynesworth's career.

Shit, when we play the Lions, do you think Larry Foote's going to try garroting Dick LeBeau?

And Schwartz didn't make a play for Haynesworth.

Probably because Schwartz didn't have $100 million to spend on one dude.

So Haynesworth needs to prove him wrong. Or maybe Haynesworth prefers to simply think about counting his money?

Maybe Haynesworth will dominate whoever the fuck the Lions have at center, simply because he's the superior player.

Also: I love the idea that by beating up on Detroit in one game in 2009, that somehow proves Jim Scwartz wrong for thinking the guy won't be worth $14.5 million in 2014.

7. Dimitroff comes home

Over the years, plenty of men who worked under Patriots coach Bill Belichick have left for greater responsibilities elsewhere.

To date, none of them has succeeded in their new jobs. None, that is, except for Falcons General manager Thomas Dimitroff.

Prior to this I had no idea who Dimitroff was, or what home he was coming to. Now I know, and I find it kind of informative.

The former New England director of scouting became Atlanta's GM without a face-to-face interview, and Dimitroff has helped the franchise dig out of a deep hole fueled by the foibles of the former face of the franchise, Michael Vick.

I guess what would make it more newsworthy would be if like, I don't know, Michael Vick was playing against the Falcons, or Richard Seymour was matching up against the Patriots? I'm a huge wonk when it comes to front office dealings, but former-scouting-director-turned-GM versus coach isn't really the fight of the century.

Dimitroff brings his new team back to Foxborough this weekend, and the Falcons might be good to enough to keep the Patriots in an unexpected downward slide.

Yeah, I think that's fair. The Falcons certainly seem to be a good team, possibly on the rise, while the Pats continue to be a good team that hasn't quite taken off yet. It could be interesting. Maybe you could mention something about Matt Ryan? Michael Turner? I don't know, some of the specific guys Dimitroff acquired that turned the team around. Maybe you could also mention some of the guys who are on the Pats thanks to his scouting? Something relevant to him, like that?

I could go on to do the last four points. Or I could go home for the week. Think I'm going to go home.

The thing about Thomas Dimitroff put me to sleep. It was like this gentle lullabye of stupid, as opposed to the blaring, Christian death metal brand we usually get.

I'm going to give Mike Florio props there. He may not know when to stop writing, but his columns are at the point where they know when to stop being read.

Post Game Breakdown

2009-09-20T19:26:00.000-07:00

Good game. Mostly. Would have been an entirely admirable game if not for 16 flags and 132 total penalty yards between the two teams. That aside, let's look at what else happened.

-Our offensive line was.... good! Just when you want to toss burning dog shit at these guys, they step up and perform adequately. They weren't dominating, but Ben doesn't need a dominating line (in fact, I doubt he could ever allow his blockers to be dominant, simply because his game is so spontaneous and mobile). They did allow 2 sacks, but Ben was never blindsided. He stepped up into them, after holding the ball too long. Those are smart plays.

-Ben's passing was a little spotty. I'm going to be a moderate on this, because I can remember terrible passing performances and I can remember great ones. This was neither. It was just kind of decent. (I'll stress this a trillion billion times, we're spoiled fans, and there are about 25 teams in the NFL who would happily take our QB's decent day at the office as opposed to whatever they're getting from their guy.) The first drive was a thing of beauty. 13 plays, 92 yards, 8:03 off the clock, and 7 points on the board. After that Ben started throwing high. There was also that crummy downfield lob that got picked, but that still strikes me as a mechanical fluke and not a case of Ben getting beat by pressure or coverage. Bottom line: he didn't cause us to lose, he didn't set the world on fire to the point where we couldn't possibly lose. The Steelers will probably let him start again next week.

-THE RUN GAME IS BACK!!!!1 Kind of. We averaged 4.8 yards on the ground today, which is tremendous. But let's look for the clouds hiding behind that silver lining. There were four players who carried the ball: Willie, Mendenhall, Mo, and Ben. They recorded a total of 105 yards on the ground in 22 attempts. If we take away each of their largest runs, we're looking at a total of 33 yards on 18 attempts. That's a 1.8 y/c team average-- only slightly improved from last week's miserable 1.6 y/c. Now I'm not saying we should take away the 72 yards that our guys totaled with each of their best carries, because that'd be bullshit. However, I am proposing that we're a 4.8 y/c team that can't expect to get 2 yards whenever we want. I certainly saw that watching today. I love Parker, but he doesn't fall forward. Mendenhall accidentally started to break out today, and we don't have enough information to really judge him. Mo is probably the best when it comes to driving a pile, but he's hardly the scourge of run defenses everywhere. Not trying to pull a Bob Smizak here, bending logic to shit on someone's parade... I'm simply observing that our run game isn't a consistent enough factor to be used consistently. That's why in a game where we carried the ball for over 100 yards, we still had to pass far more often than not.

-Jeff Reed missed two field goals.

-Our nickel defense was kind of weird today. A lot of 1-5 / 2-4 stuff which is normal, but if you noticed, Lawrence Timmons was playing outside of Woodley as a pass rusher. In the past, Farrior and Polamalu have flanked Harrison and Woodley respectively, with Timmons staying back to play center field. I would never question Dick LeBeau about anything, but I was surprised at how little he was dropping #94 back into coverage. Cutler was hitting those curl, come back and wheel routes, which all place the receiver in the flats or right along the sideline. Kerry Collins did the same last week. I was under the impression that we hired Lawrence Timmons specifically to stop those patterns. I have no problem with him pass rushing, but the blitz wasn't getting to the passer (their O-line played excellent, and Cutler didn't do anything stupid to get himself sacked), so it seemed worth it to play more of a coverage game than one based on pressure... but that's not my call to make.

-Is Keyaron Fox the new Larry Foote? He looked damn good in the 3-4, showing some real aggressiveness stopping the run. Maybe Timmons wasn't 100% and that's why they were easing him back into the lineup, or maybe they think he'll be all the better as a platoon player. I honestly don't care. If they have faith in Fox, I have faith in Fox. I just wish James Farrior's #51 jersey didn't look so much like #57. Go back to the block font!

-Ike Taylor played a weak game. A couple penalties and some lack of follow through in tackles. We rarely see Ike get burnt on the deep ball. His teammates maintain that it's because QBs no longer throw to his side of the field. Maybe.

-The Bears played a hell of a game. You could say they benefitted from some mistakes on our part, and while that's true, the bottom line is that they put themselves in a position to benefit. Cutler absolutely rose to the occasion and didn't make our defense look as terrifying as it most certainly is. For a second week in a row, Matt Forte struggled to get much push in the run game, and that had as much to do with defense as anything else. The loss of Urlacher played out very much like the loss of Troy: neither team felt the hit specifically in the replacement player; both teams felt it everywhere. It was a subtle but important difference not having those guys' extra-ordinary element on the field. With the Bears it resulted in less pass rushing. Urlacher isn't a pass rusher, he's a brick wall. Arguably the best brick wall in all of football (which is why this was such a big deal when it happened). Without him covering the middle of the field, the Bears couldn't bring the outside backers on as many blitzes. It's also why the counter plays worked so well for Willie; he'd motion in one direction, bringing in the linebackers, and then counter out the other way, where he'd be in one on one match-ups with Urlacher's replacement.

-We miss Troy. But I'll be damned if any of us can articulate what we miss about him, past saying that we want that guy who can stop a RB 8 yards behind the line on a play, and then make a one-handed interception 55 yards downfield on the next. That guy... that guy isn't a reasonable thing to desire. That's the kind of thing that a rich kid with a miniature horse desires. It's entirely outlandish. Back to the point: what we're missing by not having Troy is tough to describe, but it is absolutely real. It's like the Urlacher thing, where it ripples to the other positions. It probably had something to do with Timmons playing off the edge, instead of his normal position in the middle. Probably had something to do with Cutler making good reads all day. But Troy being gone probably didn't have a ton to do with the big plays that were made. Our coverage on their first touchdown was solid; Cutler just threaded the needle and their man held onto the ball. The other touchdown reception was by a guy being guarded by Tyrone Carter. We're not going to speculate as to whether or not Troy would have prevented it because that'd be ridiculous.

-I was dead wrong when I said points would come off of turnovers. The turnovers were there, but they really didn't haunt anyone. Maybe the costliest was the Stefan Logan fumble with 0:15 left on the clock, but that's putting a lot of stock in Ben's 15-second drill. Overall, I'm not surprised that the Bears did this. I still don't think the Monsters of the Midway are going to take the NFC North, but as I said before, they're a good spoiler team. They will win games against good teams, because they mostly have what it takes to stay in it.

-I bet Tomlin had some not nice words for his men, re: the slipping and sliding. Weather conditions happen. We need to show better footwork.

Week 2 Preview

2009-09-18T12:06:00.000-07:00

This is what we saw from the Eagles last year:

I wouldn't be surprised if we got similar treatment from Chicago. They'll probably start by attacking the edges, either with LBs or DBs hiding behind DEs. Then after we've committed three linemen to each side, they'll bring the backer or safety through the middle.

Why I think this will be especially effective is because the Bears don't need to do it. They have pretty good speed on the edge already, thanks to their DEs. By adding an extra man to the mix early, we have no chance of preventing the sack. When they pull that extra man back into coverage, then Ben is holding the ball longer, but that fast DE is still burning Willie Colon or Max Starks.

The trick to beating them will be excellent play calling.

Sorry. But it's true.

Ben needs to establish his rhythm before the pass rushers establish theirs. That weak ass draw play that Bruce Arians loves to run is actually pretty good against this kind of defense that attacks from the outside (as opposed to the Titan defense, which clogs the inside lines perfectly). It's also highly likely that the Heath Miller short curl route over the middle will be effective (especially without Urlacher manning the Mike linebacker spot), as it doesn't take any time to develop and it usually punishes a defense for over-committing in one direction. I also think it's entirely plausible that Ben could bomb the ball deep for a huge gain; however, for this to work, he has to throw on his terms. The Bears' secondary is physical, but they only pick balls on forced throws. If Roethlisberger is given time and makes a good read, there isn't a Chicago Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu who can rob him.

So. In short: the O-line is no match for the Bears' D-line, but I think you can compromise them out of their blitzing ways with the right play calling.

Lawrence Timmons is back. This is great. Here's what we can hopefully do with him:

Zone blitz!

Here's hoping he's 100%, because that'll make not having Troy quite a bit easier.

As I said before, I don't expect to see a major let down because of no Polamalu. It'll be noticeable, but we're still the Steelers. We still have James Farrior. James Harrison. Brett Keisel. LaMarr Woodley. Ike Taylor. Aaron Smith. Ryan Clark. Casey Hampton. ...Lawrence Timmons!

I think we should see some big turnovers. Probably from both teams. Most likely points off of turnovers.

2009-09-14T15:07:00.000-07:00

And I hate Tom Brady. So much.

2009-09-14T11:42:00.001-07:00

Man, I hate the Patriots.

NFC North

2009-09-14T10:37:00.000-07:00

I am so much more interested in the NFC North this year, than I am in the NFC East. Part of that is because the Steelers are playing the north, but it's got even more to do with the fact that I like the teams more. Football should be about blistering, Great Lake wind-chills*... not car flag rivalries between people in Dallas and Philafuckingdelphia.

(*note: blistering Great Lake wind-chills happen 50% of the time in the NFC north; blistering air conditioning and turf burn make up the rest.)

With the exception of the Lions, I see a lot of development in this division.

The Packers are going to be sweet. They were the best 6-10 team ever, last year, with a +39 point differential and the 5th best offense in football. Aaron Rodgers looked like an absolute stud in his first year as the starter, and the featured RB, Ryan Grant, gave them 1200 yards on the ground, in a pass-first system. The big room for improvement was the 22nd ranked defense, so in the off-season, the Pack had former Steelers' D-coordinator, Dom Capers, install the 3-4. I watched them run it against Cleveland in the preseason-- and granted it was the Browns, but still: woof. Big time woof. Defensive End, Aaron Kampman was converted to pass rushing backer with tremendous success, so much so, that on passing downs, Green Bay has shown enough confidence in their LB corps to run 2-4 variations. Drafting BJ Raji in the first round this year gives them future depth at NT, so the system should only improve. Bottom line: they're going to put up points at a formidable rate, while bringing a pass rush that should produce turn overs.

Imagine if Ben hadn't recovered from his pinky injury or whatever it was in 2005. Imagine that Tommy Maddox stayed in the starting QB job, and that SOMEHOW our defense and run game made up for how much he sucked, enough so that we got to the Super Bowl. That's what happened for the Bears in 2006. Since then, they've stayed absolutely miserable at the QB position, yet mildly competitive due to decent defense and running. Last year, they had rookie RB, Matt Forte give them 1715 total yards, receiving and rushing. They also have special teams devil, Devin Hester, who is now playing regularly at WR. Anyway, this decent team went out and traded for Jay Cutler this past offseason. Jay Cutler was the young, franchise QB in Denver, who was utterly betrayed by poor Bronco defense. He was also pissed at the new coaching regime, so Denver was willing to make a trade, just to get him out of town. Cutler threw 4 interceptions in a loss to arch-rival, Green Bay, last night on national television. Is he terrible? No. Is he beatable? Very. The main problem isn't him, so much as it was his very young receivers not coming back on balls, while the Packer CBs were. And for a 4 interception night, it was an incredibly competitive game, thanks to the Chicago defense. They have a terrifying pass rush that forces mistakes out of opposing QBs. The secondary can be beat, but it's a matter of buying time in the pocket for the play to develop. My guess is that they'll be a spoiler, winning games against good teams, but not winning enough to be extremely competitive, themselves. We'll talk more about the Bears throughout the week.

The Minnesota Vikings are very impressive on paper. Their defensive line is excellent, and they've been #1 against the run for the past three years in a row. Of course... they've also been abysmal against the pass, but that may be changing with a few changes in the secondary. Offensively, they have the best running back in the game, combined with a future hall of fame QB and a pretty good line. I'll be very interested to see this team make the rounds through our division, because if anyone can clamp down on Peterson it's the Ravens and Steelers.

Lions... I don't have a lot to say about them. I don't want to dismiss them as totally hopeless, because I don't think that's ever fair analysis. I just don't know much about them, haven't seen what they've got. I know it's not much, and that most of their high value draft picks have been offensive skill players that haven't had a system in which to thrive. Maybe Larry Foote can turn them around?

Points Difs from last year for week 1

2009-09-13T18:29:00.000-07:00

Miami (+28) at Atlanta (+66): Atlanta wins / yes

Kansas City (-149) at Baltimore (+141): Baltimore wins / yes

Philadelphia (+127) at Carolina (+85): Philadelphia wins / yes

Denver (-78) at Cincinnati (-160): Denver wins / yes

Minnesota (+46) at Cleveland (-118): Minnesota wins / yes

NY Jets (+49) at Houston (-28): NY Jets wins / yes

Jacksonville (-65) at Indianapolis (+79): Indianapolis wins / yes

Detroit (-249) at New Orleans (+70): New Orleans wins / yes

Dallas (-3) at Tampa (+38): Dallas Wins / NO

San Francisco (-42) at Arizona (+1): San Fran wins / NO

Washington (-31) at NY football Giants (+133): NY football Giants win / yes

St. Louis (-233) at Seattle (-98): Seattle wins / yes

Chicago (+25) at Green Bay (+39): TBD

Tennessee (+141) at Pittsburgh (+124): Pittsburgh wins / NO

Buffalo (-6) at New England (+101): TBD

San Diego (+92) and Oakland (-125): TBD

-----------

Okay, so that's 10 out of 13 games where the point differentials from last season pointed to this week's winners. 76.9% accuracy, which is about what it was last year. What does this matter?

Eh. I guess it doesn't.

It's just kind of cool when math does things.

Thoughts on Week 1

2009-09-11T16:16:00.000-07:00

Fuck Tom Brady for already having stolen comeback player of the year honors from Daniel Sepulveda. The only thing that lasts longer than pretty boy's eternity in the pocket, is the hang time on one of Dan's punts.

After last year's opener, I thought to myself "this is a really good football team. I don't want to say it out loud, but this is a team that could be playing in the Super Bowl." Then I immediately called my dad and bet that it'd be a Steelers-Cowboys matchup in XLIII.

This year, watching a fair amount of preseason and then this opener, I'm much less impressed. We're still a very good team, in that we can hold our own with anyone. But there's something missing. We don't have a dominant edge on offense to compliment the defense. And for as great as the defense is, it needs support. New England compliments its talented defense with constant scoring from Brady and Moss, which forces opponents to sell out their game plan and pass more than they want to. The Colts do something similar, and have a defense specifically designed for containing a team trying to score in a hurry. The Ravens and Titans (and Steelers of old) set up their run stopping defenses by pounding the ball themselves, eating up clock, and resting those linebackers who are constantly attacking when on the field. The point is, these teams have unified game plans that put the right units on the field at the right time. Our playing style in the 2008 regular season, and what I fear will resurface this year, is that "win by default" method, where the defense manages the game instead of the offense, and then we scrape up the needed points before the game clock goes to bed.

Looking at it from a completely different angle, it's fair to say that our "hardest schedule in the league" carried over to last night. The reason we played so many ugly, grind-em-out games last year was because we were up against great teams. The 2009 Titans look to be quite competitive, so what happened last night is reasonable. It's not ideal. Ideally, we'd have a run game that can tear up a top ranked defense and send a wave of chatter throughout the league. But barring that, we can at least take comfort in the way Roethlisberger runs his late-game offense. He is very much a John Elway type, and if you can't have a Walter Payton or Jim Brown, that isn't too bad of a consolation prize.

So anyway... we're good enough to come out of a game with a W; whether we're good enough to come in with a plan that works without a hitch, that remains to be proven. I don't want to see blowouts of bad teams (unless they're the Browns and Bengals), I want to see the ability to execute our style of football against middle of the road clubs. What we did against the Redskins last year was a great example of how good we were. We exposed their inability to make us compromise, and simply dismantled a league average team, quarter by quarter. I honestly don't see many of those games on our schedule. We have about 8 games against crummy teams, about 6 weeks that will be tough match-ups, and I'm guessing 2 games against mediocre opponents. We don't need to run up the score, but I do want to see the ground game alive and well against the Kansas Cities and Clevelands and Oaklands; I don't want to win on just field goals against the Tennessees and Baltimores, but I'll take it; and as far as the Minnesotas and Green Bays go, it'll require great defense, supported by mistake free offense to feel good about our team. If those are the kinds of games we're playing, then I'll be a lot more understanding of an occasional night where the team rushing average is ONE POINT SIX yards per carry.

Not having Troy sucks so much. But that's football. If anything, it makes it more interesting what happens next; who steps up, what adjustments are made, etc. My guess is that it won't be as noticeable an absence as when we lost Sepulveda last year. That doesn't mean it's less important; far from it-- Troy is huge. However, the amazing plays he makes are the ones you'd never think to imagine anyone making. When Mitch Berger shanked a punt out of bounds before it crossed the line of scrimmage, it was easy to say "Sepulveda would have kicked that one... more forward!" Or when Greg Warren was injured against the Giants and James Harrison long snapped the ball into the endzone... that was noticeable. Unless Ty Carter and Ryan Mundy completely botch the job-- I mean, go TOTALLY Tommy Maddox on us-- I don't think we'll be constantly griping that "Troy woulda made that play!" These men are very competent, as is anyone who makes Dick LeBeau's squad, and this is just another opportunity to show the league how deep our system is.

I do anticipate a lot of subtle changes in coverage, which should ripple over to the kind of blitz packages we'll be able to use. We've talked about it in the past, Troy can spy both the TE and the running lane outside the TE, which allows the guys upfront-- Woodley, Harrison, Smith, Keisel-- to concentrate their efforts elsewhere. Without Troy, we're going to want Timmons back ASAP. He's probably our fastest backer, and if he can effectively cover the flats, then Woodley can stick to pass rushing and Farrior can manage the middle. If Timmons doesn't come back strong, then we're going to get a little vanilla on the edges. Harrison and Woodley will do a lot more spy work in the flats (a bit deeper than what they were doing last night).

My dad and I were talking about it: LaMarr Woodley getting dehydrated by halftime was dumb. These guys are supposed to be hydrating two days in advance of the game, and spending all summer working on endurance. There's no excuse for cramps on a gorgeous, 60 degree night. Woodley needs to attend boot camp with Farrior and Taylor next summer. That's my verdict.

Hampton was getting a lot of penetration. Some of that was great play by the fat man; on a couple of occasions, he did legitimately explode the line. Some of it was the Titans picking their poison: would you rather your quarterback scramble away from big Casey, or someone moving faster than 0.6 mph?

Keisel was off the radar last night. Didn't do much play making, got winded and was off the field with Hampton in the first round of substitution (he usually stays out there with Smith until later on in the game). I'm not even a little bit worried about Diesel Keisel, I just want more of him doing things--it makes the rest of my week easier when I can think back on how hard he fell on a running back.

Chris Johnson is really good. I already said the Titans are legit and that's why last night was ugly. I'll say it again. It's not an accident that they had success last season. It's largely the result of Chris Johnson's running ability. He can follow a very good line, or cut his way outside the tackles. Last night he went outside, and made LaMarr Woodley, James Harrison, and James Farrior look slow. It's very hard to make our guys look slow. He did it, and that's why we had to bend a little.

There are three ways a defensive lineman attacks a blocker:

1. Charge directly at the blocker, and try to push him backwards so the run lane doesn't develop.
2. Shoot the gap between blockers, and try to be in the lane waiting for the ball.
3. Attack the blocker on an angle (known as a stunt or a pinch), and try to open up the lane even wider so a linebacker can get through.

4-3 linemen typically go with the second technique. The Titans were brilliant at it last night. Our linemen usually just attack head-on, and are strong enough to draw the double coverage that frees up the backers.

After Woodley and Harrison got burned on the edge by Johnson, LeBeau moved them back to protect the flats and adjusted his attack to the middle. The line did more stunting than I've seen in the past, and this opened up holes for Potsie to come tearing through. Then all of a sudden, our guys looked fast again. Amazing how an adjustment in the system can do that.

Yinz know I love the idea of Limas Sweed, but how 'bout that Mike Wallace? Not bad right? They're saying he's got the fastest times of anyone on the roster, and from what we saw in preseason, he's not afraid the NFL like some rookies are. This could be the best receiving corps Ben's worked with, yet.

Our offensive line is offensive. In this economy, it's absolutely amazing that Trai Essex has a job-- and he's not even the shittiest. Ugh... I'll reiterate my point that we were up against an excellent line, so it's not all our fault... etc. etc. Bottom line: it's depressing to watch these guys in the same way it was depressing to watch Mitch Berger. We don't exactly know what quality looks like, but we know it ain't this.

Okay, that's all I have to say for now. Long season ahead of us.

Quote to Note

2009-09-11T06:58:00.000-07:00

“I got my hand up,I jumped and my vertical is probably not that good, but …”
Defensive end, Aaron Smith, on his field goal block.

What do we think Aaron Smith's vertical leap actually is? 6"?

On Curses, part II -- counterpoint

2009-09-11T06:15:00.000-07:00

If Fitzgerald goes down next, I'm quitting playing Madden forever. It tried to kill my Troy.

On Curses, part I.

2009-09-11T06:14:00.000-07:00

There's no such thing as curses.

The Wildcat

2009-09-09T09:25:00.000-07:00

The wildcat was kind of all the rage last year, after Miami brought it into vogue. It'll probably get significant exposure this season with Vick and McNabb set to run it in Philadelphia.

Its purpose is to blur the defense's idea of who'll be passing. It requires at least two passers, one of which is usually the every day QB (and kind of a fatty), and the other is usually a RB or WR with passing experience (though in the cases of Michael Vick and Vince Young, the second passer is a designated QB with exceptional speed).

There isn't really a definitive wildcat formation, just basic principles. Start with the second passer, the speedster; he's lined up at QB in the shotgun. Then take the fatty QB and put him as a wide receiver, flanking the sidelines. Then you have 4 other "skill" players to distribute. Usually these will all be receivers (either wideouts or TEs), but I suppose you could put a FB in the backfield with the speedster.

Anyway, the speedster takes the direct snap from the shotgun. He can then do three things: pass to a receiver; run the ball; or toss a screen to the fatty QB across the field, and have the fatty QB throw the forward pass to a receiver.

To complicate things further, teams will sometimes put a WR in motion so that he grabs the snap before it gets to the speedster. In this case, the speedster will still move like he received the snap, drawing linebackers in the opposite direction of where the ball is going. Establish that a few times, and then the WR can fake grabbing the snap, which means the speedster's decoy run is actually the real McCoy. The other option with the man in motion, is that if he's originating from the opposite side of the field as the fatty QB, you can also motion the fatty QB to run a reverse, receiving the handoff from the WR, and being poised to make the short toss to the speedster passer, who has just completed his decoy route and is now in the flats. (I'm having trouble uploading my Paint diagrams to blogger; you may want to draw this out.)

This last scenario is probably going to be a staple in Philadelphia's playbook, as McNabb can still move well enough to take part in a reverse.

Teams may also keep the fatty QB in the backfield to receive the snap, and simply line up the speedster at WR. As you recall, we did this with Randle El in the 2005 playoffs (I believe there was a screen to him, followed by a pass back to Ben, followed by a forward pass from Ben down field; not to mention the reverse in the Super Bowl). What kept that from being the wildcat was that Randle El never lined up in a position to also serve as a running back. He was always a WR who threw, and the trickery developed as the play progressed; it didn't originate in the formation itself.

The formation is somewhat of a pickle. Because there are 4 receivers, you need to be in something close to a dime. That means you only have five guys to stop the run, and someone needs to be spying the fatty QB. So really, it stretches personnel.

Unless Vince Young puts on some kind of wildcat clinic tomorrow night, I'm going to say this isn't much of a concern for LeBeau. Tomlin has definitely downplayed it in press conferences, and the defense put it down the couple times we saw it last year. We're particularly adept at solving it, thanks in large part to the flexibility of our personnel. Our 1-5 nickel is the wildcat of defense, especially with Troy's ability to play anywhere. Since we can stop the run without 2 down linemen (let alone 4), that allows more guys to flow to more parts of the field, thus negating the spread-out effect of the formation.

Personnel Updates

2009-09-08T06:40:00.000-07:00

Lawrence Timmons continues to not have a healthy ankle. This is fairly disappointing, as we've all been saying #94 is poised to dominate the league if only he stays healthy. Alas. Keyaron Fox is slated to start in his place. If you read the Trib article on him (don't), you'd get the impression that Fox is a latter day Larry Foote. Somewhat true. He was a good linebacker for the Chiefs, then he got injured, so we bought him from the discount bin. He was one of the major difference makers on special teams, enough so that the Steelers elected him a captain for the 2009 season (we have SIX captains this year; Ben, Hines, Reed and Potsie again, as well as Harrison and Fox). So anyway, it'll be more of the same shut down defense, as opposed to the new kind of shut down defense we were jonesing for.

Bruce Arians has announced that Willie Parker will get short yardage carries, unless he's dead tired and needs a rest. This is ridiculous that it's even an issue. If Fast Willie is good enough for first and second down, why not 3rd and short?? I know Gary Russell's 2.8 yards per carry were great for all those times we wanted to get pushed backwards on the goal line, but Willie is going to be even better, because he actually moves the chains every three touches.

Bruce Davis, the practice squad linebacker I've been putting on a pedestal for the past year, has been cut. I think he'll resign with the practice squad, and I still think he'll be good. It wouldn't be the first time a quality player has been cut before making the team.

Video of the day

2009-09-04T11:38:00.001-07:00

He's back...

2009-09-03T12:05:00.000-07:00

...and in almost mid-season form. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you our old friend-- Mike Florio.

At first I thought he was writing an article I'd agree with, and that I'd have no bloggable fun at his expense, but that's just not the case. Mike Florio has the ability to argue for what I already believe, and somehow leave me pissed off and confused about the issues. Take it away, Hotshot.

With the NFL considering the possibility of expanding the regular season, it's a given that, for each new "real" game, the league will be subtracting one of the "not real" ones.

True.

+1.

So 31 years after the formula of 14 real games and six not real ones adjusted to 16 and four, the next step could be a move to 17 and three, or maybe 18 and two.

Not a terrible bit of speculating. I'll give you another

+1.

How about just making it 20 and zero?

Um... because that would be nuts? A 20 game season that stretches from early August to January would cause more injuries than anything ever has? It would be hard to evaluate younger players trying to make the team? The quality of play in the first couple of games would be piss poor? Just some guesses as to why a 20 game schedule would be ridiculous.

-1.

The regular season should never contain more than 18 games.

Oh. Right. Yeah. That's what I said. ...Glad you agree. And don't worry about justifying WHY you just contradicted your last statement. I'll just assume you're on the same page with all the things I listed.

-1, for wasting my time a sentegraph ago.

Even if the season stays at 16 games, here's a vote for getting rid of the preseason.

Okay, that's your argument-lacking opinion. Hearing it loud and clear.

+0.5

Completely.

-100 for the one word paragraph.

It's a sham, and it's a scam. It looks like real football, but it's actually glorified scrimmages with bright lights and simulated game conditions and full-price tickets and $8 beer. However, to get season tickets for the eight home games that count, the fans have to buy seats to the two games that will matter only if a key player suffers a serious injury.

Whoa! Rant time! And a pretty cogent rant at that! Some would even consider this a contributing argument at the core of a legit thesis.

I'm going to give him +2 for almost getting away with that, and you a -1 for almost letting him.

The NFL perpetrates this charade because it can. That doesn't make it right, but it does make for a sound business strategy.

You get paid to write about sports, Mike Florio; talk about scams!

-1

In the preseason, owners rake in revenue from tickets, suites, parking and concessions, just as if it were a game that actually meant something.

There is obviously a rip off here, in that revenue is generated at a ridiculous rate while the product on the field is far from polished. I get it. Canceling preseason (completely): not the answer!

Just demand lower prices. Write a strongly worded opinion piece on why the NFL should put an end to that bullshit season-ticket policy. Make the point that owners should have to attract fans with incentives, not scam them into the seats. That's what you should do!

-1

The costs are much lower than usual, since players aren't yet receiving their base salaries — and because many of the preseason games involve reduced travel expenses for road games that typically aren't very far from home.

Some games played this preseason:

Arizona at Pittsburgh
St. Louis at New York
Chicago at Buffalo
Cleveland at Green Bay
Philadelphia at Indianapolis
New York at Chicago
Buffalo at Green Bay
Green Bay at Arizona
New Orleans at Oakland
Seattle at Kansas City
Minnesota at Houston

-1

Every year, the Jets and the Giants meet in the preseason, giving one of them the opportunity to avoid entirely the cost of taking an 80-man roster on the road.

Those cheap bastards! How dare they give the fans anything less than maximum travel miles. The last thing 70,000 obnoxious New Yorkers want is a chance to be loud and disagreeable in close proximity to each other. They'd much rather be united in their mild dislike of the far-traveled Seattle Seahawks.

-1

The Florida teams have finagled an annual round-robin tournament, which means each gets one preseason away game that can be played without having to cross the state's borders. Other common preseason matchups that entail lower costs for the visiting team include Ravens-Redskins, Bills-Steelers, Bengals-Colts, Texans-Saints, Chiefs-Rams, Pats-Giants, Jets-Eagles, Raiders-49ers, Chargers-49ers.

Honestly, though... does anyone go to a game and think "gee, I could be getting more out of this $60 upper deck ticket if the visiting team had to take a longer flight"??

Really?

You really think that way, Mike Florio??

-1

Meanwhile, folks buy full-price tickets to these non-game games, giving the owners plenty of gravy for practice sessions that otherwise would draw several thousand non-paying customers to training camp.

Things the owners don't get: the bazillion gagillion tratrillion dollars in regular season shared revenue from broadcasting rights. Ever notice that Sunday afternoons in August are a little low on nationally televised football? It's because the network deals haven't kicked off yet. You get SNF, and ESPN does their thing, but the vast majority of preseason games are televised by local affiliates, not national carriers. This means that stadium revenue is the main source of income. Even with full price tickets, and those budget saving 1,200 mile road trips, owners aren't making a killer profit off preseason.

From a football standpoint, is any of it necessary? With the prevalence of offseason workouts and the reality that players constantly stay in shape, there's simply no need for a slate of practice games aimed at getting a team ready to play.

Bill Belichick: "Hey Tom, I hear you've done some great rehab and conditioning work in the offseason."

Tom Brady: "That's right, coach. In fact, I'm so well conditioned that I don't need to play in any preseason games."

Bill Belichick: "Well, you are pretty great... but don't you think it might be helpful to look down another team's defense, in an almost real game? You know, just for a series or two? You have been out of the league for nearly a year."

Tom Brady: "Conditioning...!"

Bill Belichick: "But what about the new players we've acquired, don't you want to get into a rhythm with them under the bright lights? Or rather, wouldn't you like them to get in rhythm with you? They're awful young and inexperienced and could use the exposure. Furthermore, I could use a look at them, just so I know who we're keeping and who's getting cut loose."

Tom Brady: "CONDITIONING!"

Bill Belichick: "Okay, but how 'bout-- and I know this isn't directly related to you, it's more just an argument for why there should be SOME preseason programming-- but how 'bout holding a game or two just so that the event facilitators are well practiced... you know, the camera crews; the parking attendants; the vendors; the referees; the announcers; the scoreboard operators; the grounds crew; the trainers and conditioners and all those dudes who run out onto the field with water bottles between downs; the local businesses; the cheerleaders; the pyrotechnic crew; the video scouting interns; the equipment managers; the ushers; even the fans themselves are better off for not having to go into the season without a little warm-up. I know it doesn't seem like a lot, Tom, but there are tons of people who make a football game happen, and the vast majority of them don't mind coming out even if it's just an exhibition."

Tom Brady: "Gee, coach, I hadn't thought of it like that. I'll go out, now, and run up the score on some team's third-string. Heil Hitler!"

Belichick: "Heil."

-1 to Florio for being wrong about everything. +1 to you the reader, for sticking it out with me.

Especially since the risk of injury to a key player persists. This year, several of the league's starting quarterbacks have question marks as Week 1 approaches. Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer has a sprained ankle, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has a "sore" shoulder, Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel has a sprained knee, and Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton has a finger that pointed so far in the wrong direction that it ripped through the skin, from the inside.

Entirely fair. And you know what, I've heard it said that the players don't love a four game preseason. So what do you do? Go back to the second fucking sentence of this column, and agree that a 2 game preseason followed by an 18 game regular season is probably a fair compromise. The thought that asking guys to go full speed without any warm up games is going to result in so many more injuries that I have to take off a point.

-1.

Another quarterback who has yet to be injured (but who is lining up multiple excuses in the event he doesn't play well) proves that today's athletes don't need extensive work before the start of a football season. Brett Favre, at 39 going on 54, skipped all offseason workouts and training camp and nevertheless was ready to play effectively for the Vikings after less than two weeks of practice.

Fuck you, Brett Favre, for among other things, enabling Mike Florio.

The idea here that Brett Favre is anything close to the rule and not the exception is batshit crazy. Also, the idea that he's anything close to healthy is insane. Favre only has so many throws left in that arm, and it's such a crap shoot to think they're going to come out in perfect working order. My guess, he'll start off okay, maybe get a bit stronger, and then lose all feeling in his extremities, come week 9.

-1

With all the work that today's professional athletes do to keep their bodies in peak condition and to perfect their craft, there's simply no need for contrived games.

Restating an lousy argument eight times doesn't get you closer to proving it.

-1

Why tease us with something that looks like real football? The better approach would be to keep the game uniforms under wraps until Week 1, building a sense of excitement and drama until the house lights go down and the curtain drops three nights after Labor Day, when the defending champ kicks off the season.

Thing that the first game of the season is right now: exciting.
Great way of building excitement: showing me my guys in 15 minute snippets, making me want to see them in real games.

-1

The real season. The actual season. Not the phony season that carries us through an August that otherwise would be dominated by baseball.

You leave baseball alone, you douchenozzle.

-1

... Then again, maybe the NFL preseason isn't such a bad thing, after all.

Whoa whoa whoa whoa WHOA! That's a two line dig at baseball! From a dude who is a sports writer!? I understand he writes about football, and I understand not everyone loves baseball... but like, you write for the Sporting fucking News! How about you grow a pair and enjoy competition in all seasons, like most men do?

-110130101

Ugh. I've soiled myself hating you. This is why we have preseason, Mike Florio; so that we can practice this fine dance of ours.

Dear Tarnow, add up the points for me. I'll leave the comments section open.