Answers to Questions you're not even asking

The Carolina Panthers should be better than the 8-8 record they sported last year. They had a very fine defense and two 1,000 yard rushers. What cost them was the complete implosion of veteran leader, Jake Delhomme, who went 4-7 in 11 games as their QB. After realizing that his sub-60 QB rating wasn't getting any better, the Panthers pulled him for young scrub, Matt Moore. Moore filled in very well, posting a 98.5 rating and a 4-1 record. Why then do I refer to him as a scrub? Several reasons. 1) He's undersized at 6'3 and 192 lbs. Sure there are small QBs, but the kind that are groomed to be starters are trained to put on weight by age 25. 2) His very excellent numbers were heavily fed by the fact that the team around him worked so well. Having an excellent defense and a powerhouse running game means a QB can average 150 y/g and still get some wins. 3) The Panthers made a point of drafting Notre Dame product, Jimmy Clausen in the 2nd round this year. They envision him being the QB of the future. 4) Moore's numbers are mediocre outside of that season.

In conclusion: the Panthers can win if they keep their defense healthy (they lost 30-year-old Julius Peppers to the Bears, but I say they manage), the run game coming, and a reasonably-solid QB under center. They're not built for a great QB to come in and take over, but if Clausen does what Mark Sanchez and Ben Roethlisberger did as rookies, they'll be a game or two over 8-8.

Mike Shanahan is the right guy for the Redskins. Assuming that nutslap fan base gives him some breathing room, he should thrive in Landover. Here's why: the team's two biggest problems last year were a lack of strategic vision and a terrible O-line. Shanahan is known for both his clarity in objectives and his hallmark zone-blocking scheme. He's known for getting great years out of no-name running backs because of how he trains his O-linemen, and that's what Washington is going to need in the future. In the present... things may be a little sticky. Idiot owner, Dan Snyder, has brought in a collection of big names that are over the hill or will soon be. Shanahan is going to have to retrain his blockers (should be a little easier with the retirement Chris Samuels and the drafting of Trent Williams at LT) and hope an aging Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, Santana Moss and Donovan McNabb are enough to keep defenses guessing (they're not). His success will come in 2012, not 2010.

The 3-4 is not the best system for everyone. This is more of a follow-up to the last point about the Redskins, who along with half the league, switched defensive schemes. Here's the breakdown of teams that run the 3-4:
-Patriots (hybrid)
-Jets
-Dolphins
-Bills
-Browns
-Ravens (hybrid)
-Steelers
-Broncos
-Chiefs
-Chargers
-Cowboys
-Redskins
-Packers
-Saints (hybrid)
-Cardinals (hybrid)
-49ers

That is exactly half the league running what was once a novelty scheme. What gives?

Mike Tomlin always says it's a "copycat league" and that these trends play out every several years. Indeed, in the late 80s and early 90s, the 3-4 was very much in vogue, popularized mainly by the New York Giants, a team we think of now as a stalwart of the 4-man front.

Anyway, enough history, here's my point: really great defenses are the product of personnel as much as they are of system. Dick LeBeau and Bill Belichick can operate 3-4 schemes because they've spent years carefully selecting the right players and grooming them to their specific roles. Rex Ryan can get a lot out of the Jets' young 3-4 because he spent years figuring it out in Baltimore while Eric Mangini brought the right personnel into New York. The Packers ruffled the feathers of DE Aaron Kampman, but ultimately made the right decision playing all 4 'backers instead of benching one. Sometimes the 3-4 is good, it works, etc.

Sometimes it's a stupid idea. It's probably a stupid idea in Landover, Maryland. I mean, within a year or two, there isn't going to be much left of the current defensive unit, so it's not like Shanahan is breaking up some Hall of Fame group. He is showing how much he doesn't care for Albert Haynesworth (fat Albert is returning the favor), by asking the dominant DT to play NT. I don't know... if I had Haynesworth, and I REALLY wanted to go to the 3-4, I'd ask him to be a DE. But whatever. This is an example of a weird switch that is ruffling feathers and doesn't have any personnel in place to justify it.

Another example of this is in Buffalo. Buffalo actually had an above average defense last year. Their main problem was an abysmal offense and stifling competition. Why switch to a 3-4? It would seem they're trying to jump-start the young career of Aaron Maybin, a DE they took in the 1st round last year. Maybin had a pathetic rookie year and consistently seemed out of place at his position. He's 6'4" and 245 lbs, so he's definitely overmatched at the line. The trick of course, isn't just penciling him in on the depth chart differently; it's training him to be a linebacker. Just because a guy is a stellar, if undersized pass-rusher in college, doesn't mean he can backpedal into coverage in the pros. In conclusion: Buffalo is messing with eleven guys to fix one.

The Broncos and Chiefs are both under the influence of Bill Belichick's cancerous feces. The 3-4 isn't understood or utilized by either team.

The Saints and Cardinals are both fun defenses to watch. Neither is particularly good. In fact, they're both kind of crummy if you're looking at points-allowed. However, if you look at points scored off of turnovers, they're both okay. They each run a hybrid 3-4, where they'll show you that 4-man front on certain downs against the run, but also have 3-3 nickel look, and a 3-4 passing defense. The Saints stayed in the 3-3 nickel throughout the entire Super Bowl; this was due to Peyton Manning's stats against 3-man fronts.

The Cardinals continue to be Pittsburgh-West, now with the addition of Joey Porter to bookend with Clark Haggans. With these two on the outside, Arizona cuts a DE loose, and moves DT Darnell Dockett to end. I've always liked Docket, and I'm curious as to how he'll do as a 3-4 DE. He's 6'4, 285 lbs, which is small for a 4-3 DT, and even kind of light for a 3-4 end (though comparable to Brett Keisel). His M.O. was that he'd use his "slender" frame to slip through interior lineman. Doing a swim-move past the center is a lot different than power-rushing a left tackle. Will he make the transition? We'll see!

The New York Giants were a bigger defensive disappointment than the Steelers last year. They have like three, AMAZING defensive ends, some mediocre DTs, maybe one linebacker, and a very young secondary. They drafted more defensive linemen this year, which won't really help things in the immediate future. Their receiving corps. is young and promising, their O-line is steady but aging, and Eli is going to regress this year. Ahmad Bradshaw is only 24, but he's going to have to take over as the featured back, as Brandon Jacobs turns 28. My feeling is that the offense isn't going to get much better than what it was last year, and therefore, if the defense doesn't improve, the Giants stay mediocre.

The Atlanta Falcons may slip. They seemed to be improving in the post-Vick era, what with rookie Matt Ryan taking over in 2008. Last year he regressed a little, and dealt with injuries. Now he'll be entering his third year, trying to make plays with an aging set of skill-players. He's pretty good, and similar to Joe Flacco in someways, but he could really use a Ray Rice. If the Falcons want a playoff spot, they'll have to get there on defense.

Aaron Rodgers is the best QB no one's ever heard of. Yeah, I know, we've all heard of him. But I don't think I've ever seen him in a commercial, he's never been the little brother of someone who's been a commercial, he's never married a super model, he's never raped anyone, he's never facilitated a dog fighting ring, he's never been to the Super Bowl... hell, he's only played two years as a starter. He's pretty much Philip Rivers, only he operates in icy conditions and has a far shittier o-line. He's pretty much Philip Rivers, only better. The Packers badly need an infusion of youth in their skill players to keep him going, though. Donald Driver is on the same kind of borrowed time that Hines Ward is on, and then some. Ryan Grant was never great, and will soon by turning 28: bad combination. Does Rodgers survive on his own? I say yes. Expect a passer rating in the mid to low 90s, and slightly fewer sacks this year. That should be enough that the Packer defense will carry them to the playoffs again.

Beanie Wells in Arizona could be the breakout player of the year, if he remains healthy. He was a phenomenal ball carrier at OSU, combining size, strength and speed in just a deadly way. He was eased into the Cardinals' system as a rookie, last year, and showed he could produce as the season went on. This year, they'll be without Kurt Warner, and the word on the street is that Whisenhunt will be moving away from a passing offense, and more towards a power-run game. Should there be any QB doubts, like there were in Tennessee this past season, expect Wells to get the same kind of boost to his numbers that Chris Johnson saw.

Chris Johnson is not god. He's just this really good RB with great cutting speed. In exactly two years, he'll be a lot less impressive. Rushing for 2,000 yards is cool, but it's a sign that you're all a team has, and if all a team is going to do is rush you 350+ times a year, you're going to die. Real fast.

Maurice Jones-Drew is god. He's 5'8", 200 lbs, and really fucking tough to tackle. What makes him so valuable isn't just his ball carrying skills, but his receiving abilities. In the last four years, he's started 20 games, but has 5,706 yards from the line of scrimmage. Let me explain: he was a utility player for three years, and a starting half back for one, and in that time, he rushed/received for close to 6,000 yards. That's insane. Let's toss on the yards he picked up from kick returns: that brings the total to 7,889 yards. Woof! He's still only going to be 25, and considering that he never carried the ball more than 200 times in a season before last year, I'd say he still has some staying power. Multi-purpose backs tend to have a much longer shelf-life than pure workhorses like Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson or Willie Parker. Keep that in mind.

This year's draft shouldn't have too many busts in it. I say that because the first round and top selections were mostly linemen, and rarely do we get upset over them. The running backs, receivers and QBs were distributed throughout, with a lot of top flight guys staying on the board fairly late. Expect some fine rookie production out of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders.

More to come.