on Joey Porter, sacks, et al.

Yo. Long time no post. It's because I no longer have a desk job to avoid via blogging. Anyway, let's get down to business.

This single season sack records thing has taken a not-so-crazy turn. Joey is at 17.5 on the year, with 60 minutes left to play; he's second only to DeMarcus Ware of the Cowboys, who has 20. Strahan's record is 22.5, with the last of those coming against Brett Favre. Joey will be up against the same Monsieur Favre on Sunday; Ware will be rushing McNabb.

How do I feel about all this? About the same as I did in prior posts.

Joey's chances of recording five sacks in one game = poor.

DeMarcus Ware = not going to pretend like I had heard of him before this, but I'm fine hearing about him now. He's very much a young OLB in a 3-4 system, just now coming into his prime. He's been a hot prospect for years (drafted 11th overall in 2005), and his production is getting better every season (sack totals by year: 8, 11.5, 14, 20+).

As I've said before, sacks are a fickle thing to track, and a dumb thing to predict. That's true of most individual stats in football, for the simple fact that the health of the individual is tough to project. So, I'm not going to say Ware is a lock for getting the record this year, or any other year after this. I'm just saying it would make a lot more sense for those who are wont to make predictions to pick a handful of young talented guys with upside, than a 32 year old who has never had more than 10.5 sacks in a season before this one.


p.s. Go Joey!

thought on Ike Taylor...

...it's really kind of funny to watch Ike drop the gimmes.  He looks so comically pained.  As if God had in fact cursed him with concrete, instead of hands. 

That's all.

One for the Thumb

Watching Bill Cowher cry, as his daughters hug him, and his players give him the first "Super Bowl XL Champs" hat...

Truly sublime.

NSFW

Okay, imagine this:  We're looking at a west coast offense that is set up with 3-wide, 1-TE, 1-RB on 3rd and 5.  Twins weak; TE and WR strong.  

LeBeau goes to a 2-3 dime.  

Has his DE's line up opposite their guards.  Farrior lines up between them, but a couple yards back from the line.  The OLBs are positioned opposite the outside shoulders of the offensive tackles.   Ike Taylor plays opposite the strong-side WR.  The nickelback, McFadden plays opposite the weak-side split WR.  Deshea Townsend is kind of opposite their slot WR, but his entire essence is pointed towards the QB, and the only thing holding him back is the ROLB, who doesn't want us flagged for offsides.  The dimeback on the play is a backup SS, and he plays deep centerfield.  Troy runs in and stands even with Farrior, on the strong side.  The FS runs in and stands on the line scrimmage, just outside of the LOLB.

Looks like this, by layers: 

deep:  #23 (DB)

corners: #20 (NB), #24 (CB)

MLB: #51 (RILB), #43 (SS)

line: #26 (CB), #55 (ROLB), #67 (RE), #91 (LE), #53 (LOLB), #28 (FS)

LeBeau has taken a 2-3 dime package, and lined it up into a 6-2-3.  That's simply pornographic.

This is from Super Bowl XL.  3rd quarter.  We were up by 11 at the time, and having success making Hasselbeck throw where no one was.  Good time to go crazy.

So go back to imagining that set up (also, be sure to picture a shit ton of pre-snap movement; Troy, Farrior, and Townsend having a freaking tea party between the DE's before dispersing).  Okay, so here's what it looks like:

Tyrone Carter (#23), our safety on the play, he just drops and plays cover 1.  Farrior (#51) plays a shallow zone beneath him (this is still considered cover 1, because only one guy is truly in a deep zone).  All three CBs drop into man coverage.   This is great considering the show Townsend (#26) put on, like he was going to blitz from the slot.  Then we have the other five on the line and Troy to send after the QB.   That's a sickening pass rush.  

Here are the obvious problems: 

1) They've got 3 WRs, and if they all streak deep, the best we can do is cover them with 4 guys.  That's a matchup that's actually favorable to the offense, as the receivers and QB have a plan, whereas, the DBs are guessing, and have very little margin for error. 

2) There's a TE and RB that simply aren't covered.  If either goes out on a route, the best we can do is hope they run straight for James Farrior.

These are two issues that keep this play from being run regularly; however, they have no bearing on it when the offense is seeing the formation for the first time.  There's simply no way to prepare for this nonsense, and no time to adjust once the ball is snapped.  If you're the QB, you're not only thinking about the three LBs who might blitz, but the three DBs who could blitz as well.  

You could send your TE out on a hot route (you see a blitz, you designate someone as the "hot" receiver, someone you're almost sure to throw to as soon as you can), but what happens if LeBeau drops Hope and Polamalu into double coverage on that TE?  There's no way he'll be open before the blitz gets to you from the other side (Townsend is one of the best pass rushing CBs in football, and he'd be working off the outside shoulder of Joey Porter).  

There's also no way you feel good about running for the first.  Even if you have the NFL MVP as your RB, as Seattle did.   Sure, Alexander was averaging just over 5 yards a carry, but he's looking at SIX FUCKING STEELERS ON THE LINE AND TROY AND FARRIOR BACKING THEM.  

You're down by 11, you don't run it.  You can't dump it.  Probably, the best bet is to try a little corner route with the slot receiver, try to take advantage of Townsend's body position, and cross up the rookie, McFadden.  

But, you know, 20/20...